US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs (updated)

US Global Investors

18/03/2026 18:52

Daily gas output drops due in part to likely freezing pipes in North Dakota

Record heat in Los Angeles boosts gas demand for power generation

LNG export unit outage contributes to reduced gas flows

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on a recent drop in daily output and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.2 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.065 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

        In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 29 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary six-week low of 106.7 bcfd on Wednesday, due in part to reductions in North Dakota, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

The North Dakota reduction was likely due to freezing pipes and wells earlier this week when overnight lows in Bismarck plunged to minus 6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 21 degrees Celsius) on Monday, according to AccuWeather.

Those North Dakota pipes were likely already thawing with high temperatures expected to reach the 60s to 70s F in Bismarck on Wednesday-Saturday, according to the weather forecaster's projections.

RECORD HEAT IN LOS ANGELES

Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain low across most of the country through April 2, but noted extreme heat in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.

High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels near 98 F on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather. That compares with average highs of around 70 F in the City of Angels at this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.4 bcfd this week to 113.2 bcfd next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid from a record 18.7 bcfd in February to 18.4 bcfd so far in March.

That reduction was due in part to the outage of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas on Monday and pipeline work expected to reduce feedgas to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday.

Week ended Mar 13 Forecast
Week ended Mar 6 Actual
Year ago Mar 13
Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+31
-38
-1
-29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,879
1,848
1,706
1,836
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+2.3%
-0.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.95
3.03
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
16.84
17.47
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
19.41
19.27
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
221
238
204
254
252
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
36
36
20
17
14
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
257
274
224
271
266
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.0
109.4
109.7
106.4
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.4
7.7
8.0
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
117.4
117.1
117.7
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.2
3.3
3.4
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.9
6.6
6.8
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.5
18.3
16.1
13.2
U.S. Commercial
9.8
13.1
10.3
10.7
12.1
U.S. Residential
13.9
19.7
14.6
16.3
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
28.5
29.4
28.5
28.2
31.8
U.S. Industrial
23.3
24.7
23.5
23.9
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
83.3
95.0
84.8
86.8
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
112.8
123.4
113.2
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
101
100
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
101
99
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
105
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 20
Week ended Mar 13
2025
2024
2023
Wind
17
17
11
11
10
Solar
7
7
6
5
4
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
34
34
40
42
41
Coal
13
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
20
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.14
3.03
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.87
3.05
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.58
1.63
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.60
2.78
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.83
2.99
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
4.50
4.83
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.23
1.98
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-3.43
-3.80
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.24
1.26
1.47
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
67.20
54.90
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
100.31
99.04
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX
18.28
18.60
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
38.59
33.25
23.31
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
21.21
22.94
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))