US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes (updated)

US Global Investors

16/03/2026 19:24

Mild weather boosts gas storage, lowers demand

LNG export feedgas eases despite global price surge

Waha Hub prices negative due to pipeline constraints

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Monday on a slow rise in output so far this month and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.8 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $3.023 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

        In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 27 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to take the somewhat unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the winter heating season in March, boosting stockpiles to near normal levels for the week ended March 13, up from around 1% below normal for the week ended March 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain near normal across most of the country through March 31, but noted that hot weather in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.

High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels over 95 Fahrenheit (35 Celsius) this week, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. That compares with usual highs of around 70 F in the city at this time of year.

In the eastern half of the country, over half a million homes and businesses were without power following a series of storms that have battered the region since late last week. Those outages reduce the amount of gas power generators need to burn.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.6 bcfd this week to 115.8 bcfd next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to 18.4 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

Prices in the U.S. have reacted to the Iran war, but not by nearly as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could. So no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas.

Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas prices have climbed by about 8% versus gains of around 53% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 71% in Asia JKMc1.

Week ended Mar 13 Forecast
Week ended Mar 6 Actual
Year ago Mar 13
Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+8
-38
-1
-29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
1,856
1,848
1,706
1,836
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+0.1%
-0.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.08
3.13
4.14
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
17.23
17.15
13.21
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
18.30
16.18
13.50
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
255
262
204
254
261
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
32
33
20
17
13
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
287
295
224
271
274
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.0
110.3
110.1
106.4
99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.4
7.6
8.2
N/A
8.0
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
117.4
117.8
118.4
N/A
108.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.2
3.6
3.7
N/A
3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.9
6.7
6.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.9
18.9
16.1
13.2
U.S. Commercial
9.8
13.0
10.9
10.7
12.1
U.S. Residential
13.9
19.4
15.8
16.3
18.3
U.S. Power Plant
28.5
29.2
28.2
28.2
31.8
U.S. Industrial
23.3
24.7
23.7
23.9
24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
83.3
94.4
86.5
86.8
96.3
Total U.S. Demand
112.8
123.6
115.8
N/A
118.7
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
99
100
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
99
100
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
104
104
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Mar 20
Week ended Mar 13
2025
2024
2023
Wind
18
17
11
11
10
Solar
8
7
6
5
4
Hydro
8
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
32
34
40
42
41
Coal
13
13
18
16
17
Nuclear
20
20
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.20
3.27
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.36
2.55
3.40
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
1.64
1.67
3.52
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SN
2.55
2.65
3.29
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.96
2.84
3.53
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.81
2.21
3.74
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
1.98
2.34
3.53
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-1.76
-4.75
0.78
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.34
1.32
1.47
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
50.33
45.18
50.19
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
72.17
55.73
48.35
60.23
54.47
Mid Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX
15.95
9.24
34.51
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
30.00
14.08
23.31
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
18.99
8.76
16.63
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Keith Weir and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))