US natural gas futures slip, set for weekly loss on milder weather, lower demand

US Global Investors

12/12/2025 14:29

US natural gas futures set for first weekly decline in eight weeks

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand

Energy firms pulled more gas than expected during cold snap last week

By Noel John

Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell to more than a one-month low on Friday, on track for the first weekly decline in two months, as forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week along with near-record output and ample amounts of gas in storage pressured prices.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.5 cents, or 2.5%, to $4.13 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest level since November 3. The contract is down 22% so far this week.

"Inventories are above average and it's going to warm up dramatically over the Christmas holiday weekend. So now with these forecasts, which is flipping higher, everybody is jumping ship on natural gas," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

"If the six-to-10-day weather forecast starts to look a little colder, we could see a big rebound in natural gas prices."

The decline occurred despite a federal report showing a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week, when extreme cold boosted the amount of gas consumers burned to heat homes and businesses.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said energy firms pulled 177 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended December 5.

That figure exceeded the 166-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decline of 167 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 89 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"While yesterday's unusually large storage withdrawal of 177 bcf would have normally prompted a price spike, especially given a dramatic 46% cut in the storage surplus, this market remains primarily focused on the mild temperature outlooks that will be limiting upside price possibilities until the forecasts shift back in the direction of another cold spell," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 3% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 142.3 bcfd this week to 126.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.8 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.3 bcfd in November.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices were little changed, finding support from expectations of higher demand as recent warmer weather is set to give way to more seasonally normal temperatures. NG/EU

Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices fell to a 20-month low on ample supplies and mild weather, encouraging some buying from price-sensitive importers.

Meanwhile, China's natural gas consumption will likely expand 5% next year from this year, and consumption by the industrial and city gas sectors is set to grow in coming years, according to forecasts from the research arm of China National Petroleum Corp.

Week ended Dec 5 Actual
Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 5
Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-177
-12
-167
-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,746
3,923
3,774
3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+2.8%
+5.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.20
4.48
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.42
9.20
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.75
10.78
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
363
381
332
344
378
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
10
9
5
4
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
373
390
337
348
481
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.3
109.6
109.0
104.6
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
9.8
9.7
9.7
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
120.2
119.3
118.7
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.5
3.5
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.3
6.1
6.1
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.8
18.7
18.3
13.7
12.8
U.S. Commercial
17.4
17.6
13.7
15.4
14.9
U.S. Residential
29.4
29.4
22.3
25.4
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
35.0
32.6
30.0
33.9
33.6
U.S. Industrial
26.1
25.9
24.3
25.3
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
3.1
3.0
2.6
3.1
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
116.6
114.0
98.4
108.6
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
144.7
142.3
126.3
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
102
101
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
101
98
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
104
101
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 12
Week ended Dec 5
2024
2023
2022
Wind
11
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
3
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
40
42
41
38
Coal
20
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
19
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.35
4.62
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
5.63
5.63
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.43
3.75
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.89
4.24
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
4.11
4.35
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
18.50
20.50
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.68
3.72
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-6.05
-1.31
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
3.31
2.54
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
163.25
176.72
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
88.32
94.19
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
27.55
25.67
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
27.41
26.92
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
35.95
35.86
39.19
31.30
58.87

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)

((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))