US natural gas futures surge 3% on record LNG flows ahead of storage report

US Global Investors

26/11/2025 14:36

Analysts see smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal last week

Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling

Colder weather expected to increase gas demand for heating

LNG export feedgas reaches new daily high

European gas prices lower amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, the expiration of a lower-priced contract, and forecasts for colder weather and higher demand this week than previously expected.

That price increase came ahead of a federal report expected to show energy firms pulled less gas from storage last week than usual for this time of year, and amid record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents, or 2.6%, to $4.599 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since November 13.

On Tuesday, when December futures were still the front-month, the contract closed at its lowest since November 18.

Analysts forecast energy firms pulled 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended November 21.

That compares with a decline of two bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 25 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 11.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.6 bcfd this week to 140.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.1 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.9 bcfd on Wednesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15.

In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving across the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.

The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.

Week ended Nov 21 Forecast
Week ended Nov 14 Actual
Year ago Nov 21
Five-year average Nov 21
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-2
-14
-2
-25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,944
3,946
3,967
3,775
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.5%
+3.8%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
4.55
4.42
2.98
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.97
9.97
13.89
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.13
11.25
14.12
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
414
395
372
337
364
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
6
3
7
6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
420
401
375
344
370
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.5
110.7
110.6
103.6
99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.7
8.8
8.9
N/A
8.1
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
118.2
119.5
119.5
N/A
107.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.0
3.2
3.1
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.3
6.2
N/A
5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.3
18.6
18.7
13.9
12.2
U.S. Commercial
10.9
12.2
17.2
13.1
11.0
U.S. Residential
16.3
19.0
28.6
20.7
15.7
U.S. Power Plant
32.3
31.2
31.7
30.9
30.0
U.S. Industrial
23.5
24.1
25.9
24.6
24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.4
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
91.0
94.6
112.0
97.2
89.7
Total U.S. Demand
118.3
122.6
140.1
N/A
110.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
87
87
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
85
83
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
86
85
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Nov 21
Week ended Nov 14
2024
2023
2022
Wind
10
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
40
40
42
41
38
Coal
18
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
20
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.12
4.15
2.10
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
4.03
3.80
1.99
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.33
4.32
3.29
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
3.75
3.61
1.83
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
3.91
3.76
1.98
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
6.97
4.46
2.70
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.42
4.07
2.55
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.74
1.00
0.33
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
2.18
2.21
0.98
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
78.88
79.84
44.71
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
38.71
46.83
35.99
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
55.46
55.46
37.13
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
35.00
35.00
29.23
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
37.41
37.41
30.01
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))