US natural gas futures surge 8% to 35-month high in cold snap (updated)

US Global Investors

05/12/2025 14:55

Extreme cold boosts cash prices to highest since last winter

Gas flows to LNG export plants near record high

Record gas output allows for increased storage levels

Global gas prices fall amid hopes for Ukraine peace talks

Adds closing prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures jumped 4.5% on Friday to a 35-month high on speculative buying as homes and businesses kept cranking up their heaters to escape extreme cold while flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained near record highs.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.6 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $5.289 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 21, 2022. On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since December 27, 2022 for a second day in a row.

Energy analysts said the massive percentage gain in futures prices on Friday - prices soared almost 9% in intraday trade - could be a sign some speculators were unwilling to carry short positions into the cold weekend.

For the week, the front month was up about 9%, putting the contract up for the seventh week in a row for the first time since 2013. During those seven weeks, the contract has soared about 76%.

In the cash market, extreme cold so far this week caused next-day gas prices to soar to their highest since February 2023 in New England NG-CG-BS-SNL, their highest since January 2025 in California NG-SCL-CGT-SNL NG-CG-PGE-SNL, and their highest since February 2025 at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana and in Pennsylvania NG-PCN-APP-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL and Alberta NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Canada.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of gas in storage about 5% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"We see the bulk of the current surplus being erased by early January while a flip into a deficit cannot be ruled out next month if temperatures remain colder than normal into the new year," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain colder than normal through December 8 before turning mostly near normal from December 9-20.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.4 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week before rising to 143.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large LNG export plants in the U.S. eased to 18.1 bcfd so far this month from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

Around the world, gas prices fell to a 23-month low near $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, mostly on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more gas in the future. NG/EU

Elsewhere, prices at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark JKMc1 in Asia slid to an 18-month low of around $11 per mmBtu.

Week ended Dec 5 Forecast
Week ended Nov 28 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 5
Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-112
-12
-167
-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,811
3,923
3,774
3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+4.6%
+5.1%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
5.10
5.06
3.41
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.30
9.36
13.83
10.95
15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.90
10.99
14.34
11.89
15.23
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
423
429
397
360
408
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
6
5
3
6
4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
429
434
400
366
412
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.5
110.3
109.3
103.7
99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.8
9.9
9.2
N/A
8.9
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
119.2
120.2
118.5
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
3.2
3.0
3.0
N/A
3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.1
6.1
6.0
N/A
5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.8
19.1
14.2
12.8
U.S. Commercial
12.1
17.4
17.0
17.5
14.9
U.S. Residential
18.9
29.4
28.2
29.3
24.2
U.S. Power Plant
31.4
35.0
33.7
36.3
33.6
U.S. Industrial
24.3
26.1
25.8
26.2
25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.5
3.1
3.0
2.5
4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
94.8
116.5
113.3
117.4
108.0
Total U.S. Demand
122.8
144.4
141.4
N/A
129.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
96
90
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
94
88
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
95
89
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Dec 5
Week ended Nov 28
2024
2023
2022
Wind
12
11
11
10
11
Solar
4
5
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
40
39
42
41
38
Coal
19
8
16
17
21
Nuclear
20
21
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
4.89
4.86
3.02
2.19
3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
6.49
5.85
3.31
1.98
3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
4.62
4.70
3.42
3.04
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
4.34
4.39
2.70
1.68
2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
4.49
4.80
2.82
2.00
3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
20.75
25.00
8.16
2.88
4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.79
4.90
3.54
2.47
5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.25
1.80
2.28
0.77
2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
2.23
2.31
1.26
0.96
2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
198.32
189.27
85.01
47.35
48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
92.31
75.32
43.03
41.98
45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
30.55
42.69
42.33
63.89
61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
33.25
40.83
32.02
39.50
62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
38.52
46.52
39.19
31.30
58.87

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kevin Liffey and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))