US natural gas prices fall 3% to 11-week low on record output

US Global Investors

27/07/2026 13:40

Lower 48 daily output hit record high on Sunday 
September premium over August hit record high for third straight session
Speculators lifted bearish positions to highest since March, CFTC data showed
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to an 11-week low on Friday on record output, lower flows to liquefied natural gas export plants, and ample amounts of gas in storage.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 9.3 cents, or 3.2%, to $2.778 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since May 8.
That also pushed the contract into technically oversold territory for the first time since mid-July.
With futures down about 15% so far this month, speculators last week boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to their highest levels since March 2024, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
Looking ahead, the premium of futures for September over August NGQ26-U26 rose to a record high for a third day in a row, a sign that the market does not seem worried about supplies meeting demand in August, the last month of the peak summer air-conditioning season.
     
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 110.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June and in line with the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output rose to a daily record high of 112.3 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior all-time highs of 112.2 bcfd on Saturday and 112.1 bcfd on December 21, 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. 
As they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 24, up from 6.4% above normal during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 11, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 110.8 bcfd this week to 113.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to 17.2 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Around the world, gas was trading around $20 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, and near a four-month high of about $22 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
     
 
Week ended Jul 24 Forecast
Week ended Jul 17 Actual
Year ago Jul 24
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 24
 
 
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+34
+32
+44
+26
 
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,090
3,056
3,116
2,899
 
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.6%
+6.4%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.76
2.87
3.30
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
19.68
21.12
9.98
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
22.00
21.83
12.53
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
1
1
2
2
3
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
247
253
209
209
199
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
248
254
211
211
202
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
110.7
111.4
111.0
108.3
101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.1
6.9
6.9
N/A
8.2
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total U.S. Supply
117.8
118.3
117.9
N/A
109.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.3
2.2
2.2
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.0
7.0
7.0
N/A
6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.9
17.4
17.6
15.0
11.0
U.S. Commercial
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
U.S. Power Plant
46.9
46.8
48.9
50.2
46.1
U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.6
21.7
22.2
21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
84.2
84.2
86.4
88.2
84.9
Total U.S. Demand
110.4
110.8
113.3
N/A
104.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
83
83
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
90
90
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
93
93
80
77
76
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended July 31
Week ended July 24
2025
2024
2023
Wind
8
7
11
11
10
Solar
8
8
6
5
4
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
43
44
40
42
41
Coal
17
18
18
16
17
Nuclear
18
17
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.87
2.92
3.20
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.89
2.00
2.87
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.99
3.19
3.45
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.80
1.92
2.61
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.59
2.61
2.95
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.01
2.10
4.50
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.01
3.96
3.70
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
2.42
2.39
1.57
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.06
1.20
0.51
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
47.03
47.03
89.06
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
105.90
39.31
87.25
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
71.50
59.29
52.17
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
76.16
63.89
48.82
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
54.50
46.02
33.95
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Jan Harvey)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))