Good morning! It's a little bit hectic today. Good luck if you have multiple portfolio holdings updating at the same time!
Fortunately most of the company news today is very positive. I'm even wondering if this is some kind of record. By my count, over a dozen companies have beaten expectations or raised guidance!
Personal update: I have today added ASA International (LON:ASAI) to my personal portfolio, a stock which I wrote up late last week in a brief stock pitch.
Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (updated to 16th December)
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our View (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
BHP (LON:BHP) (£124bn | SR96) | Copper prices are up 32% and iron ore prices 4% higher. “We have increased FY26 group copper production guidance off the back of stronger delivery across our assets.” | ||
| GSK (LON:GSK) (£74bn | SR92) | GSK to acquire RAPT Therapeutics | RAPT is “a California-based, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing novel therapies for patients living with inflammatory and immunologic diseases”. Net of cash acquired, GSK's estimated upfront investment is $1.9 billion. | |
Informa (LON:INF) (£11bn | SR54) | Full year results in line with or ahead of market guidance. Increase in Group underlying revenue growth guidance to 6%±. £200m of new share buybacks. Partnership with Dubai World Trade Centre, combining their live events businesses in the region. | ||
Wise (LON:WISE) (£10.3bn | SR33) | Quarterly cross-border volume grew +25% YoY. Underlying income: expects to be around the middle of the guided range of 15-20% growth for FY26. Now expects FY26 underlying PBT margin to be towards the top of the medium-term target range 13-16%. | ||
Qinetiq (LON:QQ.) (£2.77bn | SR48) | 2026 full-year guidance: “Whilst subject to near-term spending uncertainty we continue to expect to deliver c.3% organic revenue growth, an operating margin of c.11%, cash conversion of c.90% and EPS growth of 15-20%.” | ||
Just (LON:JUST) (£2.25bn | SR51) | Still expects the acquisition of Just by BWS to complete during the first half of 2026. | PINK | |
Big Yellow (LON:BYG) (£2.1bn | SR45) | Q3: total revenue +2%, LfL store revenue +2%. Anticipates adjusted EPS growth for the full year of approximately 2%. The previous year benefited from one-off insurance proceeds. | ||
Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) (£2.0bn | SR94) | The 300 MMscfd ANOH gas project has achieved first gas. Wet gas production has been stabilizing, delivering 40-52 MMscfd of processed gas directly from the ANOH gas plant to the Indorama Petrochemical Plant. | ||
4imprint (LON:FOUR) (£1.23bn | SR87) | A resilient operational and financial performance in 2025 amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment. Both revenue and profit before tax are above the upper end of the current range of analysts' forecasts. Revenue $1.35bn (2024: $1.37bn), PBT at least $149m (2024: $154m). | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) An encouraging end to 2025 is tempered by a slightly more cautious view on 2026 from paid research provider Edison, who cite tariff pressures on import costs. On balance my view on this business is unchanged; I think it’s an excellent business with strong quality metrics and good market share. While the near-term may be a little uncertain, I would be highly confident that performance will improve when conditions in the US economy stabilise or improve. I don’t think the valuation is unreasonable, so my view remains unchanged today, on a medium-term basis. | |
| Cairn Homes (LON:CRN) (£1.13bn | SR46) | Trading Update | Beats upgraded c.€160 – c.€165 million operating profit and c.16% ROE guidance, and introduces guidance for FY26: operating profit €175-180m. | GREEN ↑ (Graham) An excellent update and I'm happy to upgrade my stance here. It's a little more adventurous than the usual housebuilder investment idea, as the reasons to invest are forward-looking rather than backward-looking. But with the company performing extremely well and supported by positive macro conditions, I think it's fair to be GREEN on this. |
Kier (LON:KIE) (£981m | SR94) | H1 (to December) and estimated full year performance remain in line. Order book remains at record levels (£11.6bn), 94% of FY June 2026 revenue estimated to be secured. | ||
Craneware (LON:CRW) (£669m | SR47) | H1 revenue +6% to c.$106m and double-digit growth in Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $33.4m. ARR +4% to $184.3m. Continues to trade in line with current market expectations for the year ending 30 June 2026. | ||
Ibstock (LON:IBST) (£538m | SR30) | Solid performance in FY25 with revenue up 2% to c.£372 million. Market share growing. EBITDA for the full year anticipated to be in line with previous guidance. | ||
DFS Furniture (LON:DFS) (£429m | SR95) | H1 underlying profit before tax and brand amortisation £30-31m, up +£13m to +£14m year-on-year. Net bank reducing from £105m (June 2025) to £60-61m at 28th December. Winter sale trading period has started in line with expectations. Now expects full year adjusted PBT to be between £43-50m, ahead of current consensus of £41m. | ||
Funding Circle Holdings (LON:FCH) (£382m | SR27) | Revenue of c.£204 million, up 28%, and profit before tax of c.£20 million, ahead of current market expectations of £191 million and £17 million respectively. Current guidance for FY 2026 is for revenue >£200 million. Having achieved this a year early, will provide updated guidance on 5th March 2026. | ||
Niox (LON:NIOX) (£288m | SR47) | Revenue +17%. Adjusted EBITDA ahead of consensus expectations, and up 21% to approximately £16.7m (expectations £15.9m). Looking ahead: “We enter 2026 with a strong balance sheet, close to £20m in cash, good commercial momentum, and a clear focus on driving further adoption of FeNO testing worldwide.” | ||
Yu (LON:YU.) (£278m | SR96) | 48% growth in meter points supplied. FY25 revenues c. £700m (2024: £646m). EBITDA forecasted to be in line with expectations (£50.3m). | ||
Capital (LON:CAPD) (£277m | SR94) | Full-year revenue at the upper end of revised and raised guidance for both the Group and MSALABS. Revenue guidance for 2026 will be provided at FY 2025 results. | ||
Public Policy Holding (LON:PPHC) (£253m | SR44) | Ahead of expectations: FY25 revenue +24.7% to $186.5m (+6.2% organic). Adj EBITDA +17.9% to $45.5m. Experiencing strong demand in US. | ||
Avacta (LON:AVCT) (£242m | SR24) | Phase 1 trials of AVA6000 and AVA6103 making progress. Expect clinical testing of AVA6103 in Q1 2026. Raised £22.5m in 2025, cash of £16.9m at 31 Dec 25. | ||
Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) (£198m | SR71) | FY25 revenue and pre-tax profit to be “in line with market expectations”, with double-digit growth vs FY24. Market forecasts for FY25 are £46m and £6.2m respectively. | ||
Midwich (LON:MIDW) (£189m | SR66) | FY25 revenue broadly flat at c.£1.3bn, w/ return to growth in H2. Adj pre-tax profit to be in line with expectations of £30m. | ||
Reach (LON:RCH) (£173m | SR76) | “The resilient performance of our print business and continued cost control means that we expect to deliver ahead of current market expectations for the full year.” Previous FY25 consensus adj op profit £99.1m, Panmure Liberum new forecast is £102.7m. | ||
Treatt (LON:TET) (£126m | SR78) | Full Year Results & Relationship Agreement and Board Appointment | Revenue -11.8% to £132.5m, adj PBT -44.4% to £10.3m. In line with July 2025 guidance. Reports “important” sugar reduction win & commercial progress in Asia. FY26 YTD in line with Board’s expectations. | |
Team Internet (LON:TIG) (£118m | SR57) | Strong momentum in Q4 despite challenging conditions. Now expects to report FY25 revenue and adj EBITDA towards top end of current forecasts (EBITDA forecasts $40-43m). Discussions relating to disposal of DIS “are progressing well”. | ||
Eagle Eye Solutions (LON:EYE) (£90m | SR55) | H1 ahead of exps, FY26 adj EBITDA now expected to be “comfortably ahead” of market forecasts. H1 ARR +3% to £42.2m, revenue -5% to £23m. Adj EBITDA -28% to £4.3m. Expect to exit FY26 with 20% EBITDA margin run rate. | ||
Kromek (LON:KMK) (£75m | SR93) | H1 revenue £15.0m (H1 25: £3.7m), pre-tax profit £3.1m (H1 25: £5.7m loss). Growth due to “landmark agreements” with Siemens Healthineers in FY25. FY26 results expected to be in line with market expectations. | ||
Gear4music (HOLDINGS) (LON:G4M) (£65m | SR95) | FY26 EBITDA is now expected to be ahead of consensus market expectations, with EBITDA of not less than £17.7m (expectations: £16.7m). FY27 Board expectations upgraded reflecting the continuing very strong underlying trading and revised capital expenditure profile. | ||
Staffline (LON:STAF) (£55m | SR96) | Revenue +11.5%, pre-tax profit +42% to £7.1m. FY25 results to be “significantly ahead of market expectations” (Panmure Liberum previously had adj PBT of £6.0m). | ||
Creo Medical (LON:CREO) (£51m | SR35) | Revenue +50% to £6m, in line with exps. Operating costs -20% to £18.4m, operating loss -40% to £13.3m. Confident of meeting FY26 expectations. | ||
Helium One Global (LON:HE1) (£43m | SR10) | First helium gas in Dec 25, operator now focused on stabilising output. Trailer on site for filling ahead of first sales. | ||
Flowtech Fluidpower (LON:FLO) (£38m | SR43) | Full Year Trading Update & Acquisition & Proposed Placing and Retail Offer | Revenue +8.9% to £116.9m, adjusted EBITDA c.£7.7m, “broadly in line with expectations”. Reports some H2 25 projects have slipped into H1 26. Acquiring Q Plus in Netherlands for an EV of €9.25m (4.6x - 5.5x EBITDA). Will double the size of Benelux operations. Raising up to £10m in placing/retail offer. | |
System1 (LON:SYS1) (£27m | SR75) | FY26 guidance maintained. Q3 platform revenue of £9.5m was flat YoY but ahead of Q1/Q2. Revenue from new client wins +10% to £7.4m in 9M26. Net cash £8.3m. |
Graham's Secction
Cairn Homes (LON:CRN)
Up 0.4% to 182.2p (£1.14bn / €1.31 billion) - Trading Update for the Year Ended 31 December 2025 - Graham - GREEN ↑
Apologies for missing this Irish housebuilder in our table first thing this morning. It’s yet another ahead-of-expectations update:
The Company again presents strong financial results, delivering on our 2025 revenue guidance of c.€945 million, and beating our upgraded c.€160 – c.€165 million operating profit and c.16% ROE guidance.
Highlights:
I’ve highlighted the profit figure, as it’s ahead of guidance, but the other figures are excellent, too.
A very powerful H2 performance carried the company through, with revenue of €660m (70% of the full-year result) and operating profit of €126m (75% of the full-year result) happening in the second half of the year.
We studied Cairn’s interim results last year, noting that the full-year revenue outlook had slightly deteriorated, while the guidance for operating profit was upgraded from €160m to €160-€165m. As we now see, the full-year result is even better than that.
There was an “exceptional sales environment experienced throughout 2025, with 22 active selling sites, primarily addressing demand within the First Time Buyer market.”
Forward order book: this has relaxed to 3,000 homes since Sep 2025, when it was over 4,000. There was clearly a vast number of deliveries in the final months of the year.
Looking at it year-on-year, the forward order book is still up by 27% in terms of the number of homes, and by 26% in terms of value.
They have six “forward fund” projects, “which allows the Company to deploy capital in a more efficient manner enabling the delivery of apartments to our State partners at competitive price points.”
As we’ve noted before, a large percentage of Cairn’s building is on behalf of state-fund organisations such as local authorities. Forward funding is great for Cairn (less capital required up front) and great for these organisations too (assuming that Cairn is passing on a reasonable discount).
More broadly, Cairn has a “strategic pipeline” for up to 6,000 new homes.
FY26 outlook: reaffirmed.
Revenue of c.€1.02 – c.€1.05 billion;
Operating profit of c.€175 – c.€180 million; and
ROE of c.16.5%.
I’ve said before that companies should be using ROE (or similar) as a standard KPI, but very few of them do it. Cairn is not only using this metric prominently but also generating excellent numbers for it.
CEO comment:
“It is unlikely that Ireland has ever witnessed the current level of demand for residential homes. This extraordinary demand is the result of a decade of significant undersupply of new housing during a period of sustained economic expansion and continued population growth, alongside Ireland's working population increasing from two to almost three million people.
He says: “Cairn's total output will now reach 6,000 new homes between 2026 and 2027.”
Graham’s view
This is a terrific update and consistent with our methodology, I’m going to upgrade our stance on this to fully GREEN.
I still think it’s quite expensive against balance sheet value:
So to be perfectly clear, this is not what I would consider to be a typical housebuilder investment idea. I prefer to be positive on housebuilders when they are cheap against their asset base, and rather unloved.
In this case, Cairn’s stock trades at an expensive premium against book value and is not all that cheap against short-term earnings either, given the sector.
The market cap today is €1.31 billion, and net debt is €172 million, so the enterprise value is €1.5 billion, against forecast (pre-interest, pre-tax) operating profits of up to €180 million.
So investors here have to be very clear about why they own it, and I think the best reasons are:
Management's laser focus on ROE, and they are delivering very strongly against this metric
Extremely strong demand in Ireland for new homes likely to continue for the foreseeable future
Cairn strategically placed to deliver both in the private market and to public bodies
Cairn’s output seen rising to 6000 new homes by 2027
These are all very exciting and positive reasons to invest in the stock, but they are not a guarantee and they are “riskier” than the usual reasons I’d put forward for investing in a housebuilder (i.e. it’s cheap against book value and earnings multiple).
So hopefully I’ve made this clear: I’m fully GREEN on this, but as always it’s a case of “do your own research”!
Roland's Section
4imprint (LON:FOUR)
Down 1.1% at 4,300p (£1.21bn) - Trading Statement - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =
Today’s full-year update from this leading promotional goods marketer is ahead of expectations, but still looks a little mixed to me.
My key takeaways are:
2025 pre-tax profit guidance has been raised from >$142m in November to >$149m;
Order volumes fell by 3% last year;
Input cost increases (e.g. relating to China tariffs) is putting pressure on gross margin;
4Imprint’s ability to raise prices may be limited;
Dialling down marketing spend is helping to protect operating margins.
In more detail:
The decline in order volumes last year was driven by a reduction in new business. While orders from existing customers were flat, new customer orders fell by 12%.
The average order value for the year only rose by 1%. This suggests to me that 4Imprint is unable to raise its prices to reflect inflation or that customers are making smaller orders.
Today’s gross margin guidance of “around 32%” is also weaker than the “just below 33%” cited in November. 1% of gross margin on $1.35bn of revenue is $13.5m, so it’s not insignificant in terms of how much falls through to pre-tax profit.
The significance of a lower gross margin is that it suggests cost increases on inventory may be exceeding 4Imprint’s ability to raise its own prices. Competitive pressures are a factor here – if rivals start discounting heavily, 4Imprint may have to choose between protecting its market share or protecting its volumes.
In fairness, management makes the point that they can dial marketing spending up or down to reflect wider economic conditions. As in 2025, this can help to protect operating profit when sales growth falters.
Outlook & Broker Estimates
After a series of downgrades, FY25 earnings estimates have been recovering recently, but this hasn’t been backed by corresponding increases for FY26:
The only updated forecasts I have access to today come from commissioned research provider Edison. Unsurprisingly they have increased their FY25 numbers to reflect today’s updated guidance.
However, what surprised me slightly is that they’ve trimmed FY26 estimates. The main reason given is that Edison expects to see continued gross margin pressure next year from the impact of tariffs. If correct, this will extend the diverging trend shown in the consensus trend chart above.
Here are the updated Edison estimates:
FY25E adj EPS: 398.03c (+4.3% vs 381.66c previously)
FY26E adj EPS: 319.58c (-2.8% vs 328.90c previously)
Admittedly, these aren’t big changes. However, recent share price gains mean that 4Imprint is now trading on a FY26E P/E of around 18.5 – not quite as obviously cheap as a few months ago, despite the cautious earnings outlook.
Roland’s view
4Imprint generates virtually all of its revenue in the US. In my view, it can be seen as an interesting play on the health and growth of the real economy in the US – a broad range of SMEs and larger companies.
My assumption is that today’s updated FY26 forecast from Edison reflects the view of 4Imprint’s management.
However, the company’s outlook statement sounds quite confident to me:
The Board is very confident that the Group will continue to effectively navigate market conditions, delivering solid financial results while positioning the business to take advantage of opportunities that will present themselves as economic and market conditions improve.
I don’t think 4Imprint’s operational excellence or market share have diminished. What is uncertain are the direction and timing of changing market conditions. When these improve – or even stabilise – I would be confident that the performance of the business will improve.
Whether this will happen in 2026 seems uncertain to me – but if it does, I’d guess there would be a good chance of upgrades to today’s forecasts.
Regardless of the short-term outlook, 4Imprint remains a high-quality business with a strong balance sheet:
Super profitability means I don’t think the shares are unreasonably expensive at current levels.
For all of these reasons, I’m going to leave my AMBER/GREEN view unchanged today, with the caveat that this reflects my medium-term view.
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