Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 14th September 2026) - KEYS, CER, TRB, KMK, DATA, MPE

Good morning. Oil and gas prices rose sharply over the weekend, as planned talks among Gulf states to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were postponed. 

Energy prices were already higher following last week’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, which forced it to close. The route had previously allowed some exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to reach the Red Sea.

In AI, the FT reports that Anthropic claims to have been profitable for the second straight quarter, ahead of a planned IPO later this year. 

Politics continues to intrude into the AI sector, though. Anthropic founder Dario Amodei published an essay on Saturday outlining the case for AI development to be slowed in order to allow developers to better understand the risks involved. His conclusions were backed by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and OpenAI founder Sam Altman.

According to Bloomberg, even China’s “top intelligence official” has warned that the pace of AI development “could threaten political stability”.

However, the market view seems to be that President Trump will apply pressure on the sector to ensure US leadership isn’t threatened, while Wall Street will be keen to maintain the frenetic level of financing activity.

Reflecting investors’ fear of a potential slowdown in spending, shares in AI investor SoftBank (TYO:9984) fell by 12% this morning on the Tokyo market, while chipmakers Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) and SK hynix (KRX:000660) were also down sharply.

Let’s take a look at the company news closer to home.

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is up 0.2% at 10,665

• S&P 500 is down 0.5% at 7,617

• Brent crude (November) is up 2.1% at $106.77/bbl

• Gold is up 0.1% at $4,338/oz

• Bitcoin is up 1.0% at $77,583

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Ed Sheldon joins me (Roland) today.

Today's report is now complete.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Roland's Section

Cerillion (LON:CER)

Down 11% at 790p (£219m) - Full Year Trading Update - Roland - PROFIT WARNING (AMBER/RED ↓)

This telecoms CRM software business has issued a material profit warning this morning – commiserations to holders.

In our last view on this AIM-listed stock in April, I commented on the “very unusual 74% H2 weighting” to profit guidance and took a neutral view. I also expressed concern around the lack of disclosure on the value of the order book and on the timing of expected cash flows from the Omantel deal.

June’s interim results left full-year expectations unchanged and reiterated expectations for “material software licence revenue” to be recognised in H2.

Investors who were reassured by June’s guidance may feel a little frustrated today. The company has warned on profits with less than three weeks to go until the end of the financial year on 30 September.

My impression is that Cerillion has failed to convert its pipeline to orders as successfully as expected, and has been holding on to the last minute before deciding to cut guidance:

Here are the key points from today’s full-year update:

• “While the second-half results will be significantly ahead of the first-half, it is now apparent to the Board that the year's outturn will be behind consensus market forecasts”

• “The main reason for the shortfall is that some anticipated new and existing customer orders have been delayed or deferred. This included software licence expansions and upgrades.”

• Major implementations are progressing, with software installation completed at Omantel and the UCom transformation project in Armenia is “nearing completion”.

Updated guidance:

The company has provided updated guidance this morning, so shareholders aren’t entirely reliant on broker updates:

• FY26 revenue now expected to be £46 to £48m (previous consensus: £52.8m)

• FY26 adj EBITDA margin now expected to be 43% to 45% (previous consensus 45.2%)

Taking the mid-point of these two metrics implies FY26 adj EBITDA of c.£20.7m, compared to previous forecasts I can see of around £24m.

Broker estimates: with thanks to Panmure Liberum and Cavendish this morning, we have access to revised forecasts through Research Tree. Analysts at both brokers have reached similar conclusions and have cut earnings forecasts by c.17% for FY26 and FY27:

• Panmure Liberum / Cavendish

• FY26E adj EPS: 48.7p / 50.4p (prev. consensus: 58.4p)

• FY27E adj EPS: 53.3p / 55.8p (prev. Consensus 64.7p)

Roland’s view

Cerillion’s share price peaked at almost 2,000p in 2024, since when it’s fallen by around 60%:

From a peak P/E of c.50x earnings, the shares now trade on around 15x today’s revised forecasts.

There could be an argument to suggest that the shares have fallen far enough. After all, quality metrics remain outstanding:

Today’s share price drop of c.10% (at the time of writing) is also smaller than the scale of the EPS downgrade, suggesting markets may already have priced in some of the bad news.

Another potential positive is that founder-CEO Louis Hall remains the company’s largest shareholder, at 20%, so is also well-motivated to return the business to former glories.

Despite these potential positives, I do have a couple of concerns.

One is simply that our long-term experience is that when a company warns on profits, this is often followed by a longer period of underperformance. While a recovery may be likely at some point, there’s an opportunity cost to holding a stock through a downgrade cycle.

This view is reflected in the StockRanks, with a Falling Star styling and very low value and momentum ranks:

Another concern is that there’s no update on the value of the order book today.

The half-year results showed an order book at 31 March 26 of £82.1m (H1 25: £50.2m). While that looks like impressive growth, my impression is that much of it related to the Omantel deal and was expected to unwind in H2.

Although I do think Cerillion’s valuation is coming down to a level where it could become interesting, I’d like to have a little more clarity on the outlook for trading before forming a stronger view. I’m going to move down one notch from AMBER to AMBER/RED today.

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GlobalData (LON:DATA) 

Down 22% at 56p (£396m) - Half Year Results - Roland - PROFIT WARNING (AMBER/RED ↓)

This business describes itself as “the leading data, insight, and technology company”. It’s active in sectors including Healthcare.

We haven’t looked at it properly since March 2025, when Graham noted results in line with expectations, complex accounts and a fairly demanding valuation. He took a neutral view while commenting that this could be a good quality business.

However, more recently in July 2026 we noted that the company was guiding for profits to be at the low end of consensus. Today’s profit warning appears to be a follow-on from this and has prompted a further downgrade to expectations, extending an already-negative trend:

Half-year results summary

The headline figures from today’s results do not seem overly encouraging:

• Revenue up 4% to £162.9m (+1% underlying)

• Adj EBITDA up5% to £54.8m (flat underlying)

• Pre-tax profit down 6% to £23.2m, reflecting higher finance costs

• Adj EPS up 8% to 2.7p

This is an acquisitive business and I think the underlying figures reflect performance excluding the impact of recent disposals.

To illustrate this, the company has made seven acquisitions since launching its “Growth Transformation Plan” in January 2024, spending over £132m, to “strengthen our proprietary data and competitive intelligence capabilities”.

Renewal rates appear to have remained reasonable in H1, although GlobalData’s customers aren’t the stickiest I have seen:

• Renewal by value: 91%

• Renewal by volume: 83%

The company notes “a significant opportunity” to improve organic growth it it can reduce churn and improve volume renewal rates.

Balance sheet & Profitability: net bank debt rose to £133m at the end of June, from £114m at the end of 2025 and just £17m in June 2025.

This represents leverage of 1.2x trailing 12-month EBITDA. That’s not a level that would concern me for a business such as this one, which appears to be quite profitable and cash generative:

• H1 operating margin: 19%

• Trailing 12-month return on capital employed: 16%

• H1 free cash flow excl. acquisitions: £31.8m (versus net profit of £14.1m)

Outlook & Broker Estimates

GlobalData’s outlook statement is a clear profit warning:

• FY26 underlying revenue growth is expected to be “more muted than expected, still in line with expectations, albeit towards the lower end of the range”.

• FY26 adj EBITDA “to be below market expectations” reflecting slower revenue growth and the impact of “targeted investments” during the second half of this year.

However, I’m not sure these comments reflect the scale of the multi-year broker downgrade issued today by GlobalData’s joint broker, Panmure Liberum:

• FY26E adj EPS: 5.7p (-24.6% vs 7.6p previously)

• FY27E adj EPS: 6.2p (-31.5% vs 9.0p previously)

• FY28E adj EPS: 7.0p (-31.6% vs 10.2p previously)

Looking at the broker note in more detail, it looks like the majority of the cuts apply to GlobalData’s non-healthcare business, where revenue forecasts have been cut significantly and margins are (already) much lower than in the Healthcare business.

The revenue split between the two divisions is approximately 60:40 (Non-Healthcare/Healthcare), but Healthcare has much higher margins and is expected to generate more than 60% of operating profit this year.

Roland’s view

GlobalData’s share price has been trending lower for two years and was already weak before today’s c.20% drop.

Today’s revised forecasts leave the company trading on c.10x FY26E EPS, which may not be expensive for a company with these quality metrics.

It could also be worth noting that GlobalData is led by founder-CEO Michael Danson, who has a controlling shareholding and a track record as an investor and entrepreneur in the market intelligence sector:

Mr Danson benefited from a well-timed sale of 20m shares at 85p last month. This sale netted him £17m, but would only have generated c.£11.5m at today’s much-reduced share price.

Danson previously founded Datamonitor (sold to Informa (LON:INF) in 2007) and has invested in a number of other privately-held companies in this sector. My understanding is that the acquisitions made by GlobalData over the last decade have included some of his private investments.

Graham was neutral on GlobalData in March 2025 and I can see why. There’s lots to like here, potentially, plus an owner-CEO with plenty of skin in the game.

On the other hand, there’s a certain level of opacity about the performance of the business, in my view. Why are volume renewals relatively weak? Is AI eroding some lower-value business?

Today’s broker cuts are also larger than I would have expected from reading the company's revised guidance.

Mr Danson is keen to emphasise that investments being made at the moment are expected to support long-term growth and profitability:

Longer term, the investments that we are making now should lead to a positive impact on revenue quality and client renewal rates giving us a stronger foundation for accelerating growth, as well as delivering operational and margin benefits.

I can see this argument and would not necessarily bet against a strong recovery over time.

However, given the persistent trend of broker downgrades and today’s large cuts to EPS forecasts out to 2028, I think it’s sensible to be cautious. There seems to be an uncomfortable lack of momentum here at the moment, something highlighted by the StockRanks:

I’m going to move our view down by one notch to AMBER/RED today, in keeping with our normal practice for profit warnings. At the current valuation I would be quick to return to a neutral view on signs that trading is improving and I think there could be decent upside here if the growth case pans out.

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M P Evans (LON:MPE)

Up 5.7% at 1,994p (£1.0bn) - Interim Results - Roland - AMBER =

There’s not too much to dislike in today’s half-year results from this palm oil producer:

• Revenue up 9% to $196.3m

• Pre-tax profit up 25% to $61.1m

• Adjusted earnings up 21% to 86.5p per share

• Net cash of $113.5m

• Interim dividend up 39% to 25p per share

Of course, this is a commodity producer: profit growth was supported by continued “strong pricing for both CPO and PK” (Crude Palm Oil and Palm Kernel).

Volumes also improved during the half year:

• Total crop processed up 8% to 798,200 tonnes

• Total CPO production up 11% to 192,300 tonnes

• Certified sustainable production up 16% to 151,800 tonnes

As reported on Thursday last week, MP Evans has also continued to acquire new land close to its main sites.

Outlook & Broker Estimates

It all adds up to a fairly positive picture.

The only possible note of caution that stands out from today’s management commentary is a warning that this year’s El Niño effect may have an impact on rainfall and thus production in either late 2026 or 2027. However, in this scenario, other producers would also be affected. The company notes that any shortfall in production might be offset by higher commodity prices.

The increase in the company’s productive base is certainly encouraging and supports a positive view on medium-term growth.

Broker forecasts have been upgraded today (with thanks to Cavendish):

• FY26E adj EPS: 230p (+12.5% vs 204.5p previously)

• FY27E adj EPS: 192.2p (+8.2% vs 177.6p previously)

• FY28E adj EPS: 190.8p (8.8% vs 175.4p previously)

Roland’s view

MP Evans’ shares don’t look wildly expensive against these forecast earnings:

However, I think it’s important to remember that this is a commodity producer and that profits are subject to commodity price movements. These could be peak earnings.

While the outlook remains strong at the moment, this won’t necessarily continue. I see that Cavendish forecasts continue to price in a return to more normal Palm Kernel pricing from 2027 onwards.

There could be further upside here, but I would argue that this is mostly dependent on commodity market conditions, not MP Evans’ growth.

As we’ve commented before, I’d argue that the stock’s current valuation reflects high commodity prices and doesn’t suggest all that much fundamental value is on offer:

As we generally take an agnostic view on commodity prices, I’m going to maintain our previous neutral view today.

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Ed S's Section

Keystone Law (LON:KEYS)

Up 7% at 658p (£195m) - Half-year report - Ed S - GREEN =

Tech-enabled platform law firm Keystone Law has posted its interim results for the six months ended 31 July 2026.

Financial highlights:

• Revenue of £66.3m, up 22.5% year on year.

• Revenue per Principal up 14.5% to £133.8k.

• Adjusted profit before tax (PBT) up 31.3% to £9.6m.

• Adjusted PBT margin of 14.5% (H1 2026: 13.6%).

• Adjusted basic EPS of 23.1p (H1 2026: 17.8p)

• Cash generated from operations up 19.2% to £8.1m with operating cash conversion of 95.6% (H1 2026: 104.2%).

• Strong balance sheet with net cash of £10.5m (H1 2026: £6.5m)

• Interim ordinary dividend of 9.6p per share and a special dividend of 15p (H1 2026: interim ordinary dividend 7.5p).

Current trading and outlook:

• The group has made a positive start to H2 2027.

• The Board now expects that Keystone will deliver FY2027 revenue comfortably ahead and profits materially ahead of current market expectations:

• FY2027 market expectations prior to the announcement: revenue £123m, adjusted PBIT £13.8m, and adjusted PBT £15.8m.

Operational highlights:

• 23 high-calibre new Principals added bringing total Principals to 501 (31 January 2026: 491).

• Principals continue to grow their Pods with net growth of 18 other fee earners in the period bringing total fee earners to 682 (31 January 2026: 654).

• Extended AI capabilities with rollout of CoCounsel Legal, a professional-grade generative AI tool specifically designed for the legal industry, complementing additional AI tools deployed in FY2026.

• Completed brand refresh, launching new website alongside the production of extensive marketing collateral.

“We continue to invest in our technology, brand and community, including the rollout of further market-leading AI tools, to ensure our lawyers have the infrastructure and support they need to grow and sustain successful practices. With a strong first half and an encouraging start to H2, we remain confident in Keystone's ability to deliver sustainable long-term growth."

Ed S’s view:

This is a stock I’ve owned in the past. I owned it for the scalability of the company’s platform (Keystone provides lawyers with full infrastructure and support via its central office team yet its lawyers ultimately have freedom, flexibility, and autonomy) and the company’s quality.

Looking at today’s results and the financials, I still like the quality-growth angle here. In terms of growth, we have a 22.5% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 31.1% increase in adjusted PBT (the only adjustments were share-based payments – these amounted to £392k).

We also get a boost to full-year guidance. Going into today’s print, analysts were expecting £123m in revenue for the financial year ended 31 January, however, the company says that it’s now expecting its top line to be ‘comfortably ahead’ of this.

Note that between FY2021 and FY2026, revenue climbed from £55m to £115m. That represents a CAGR of 16%.

As for quality, it remains high. Over the last five years, return on capital employed (ROCE) has averaged 47%, which is phenomenal.

Meanwhile, the balance sheet remains strong. At the end of July, the company had net cash of £10.5m.

Dividends have been rising and there’s a yield of around 4% on offer today. Note that the company has a history of paying out special dividends – today it has announced a 15p per share special divi.

The company is also founder led. And founder James Knight owns around 28% of the shares, so his interests are aligned with those of investors.

In terms of the valuation, it seems reasonable to me, given the growth and quality. Before today’s print, analysts were expecting earnings per share of 35.8p for the year, putting the forward-looking P/E ratio at about 18.

However, the company now expects profits to be ‘materially ahead’ of expectations. So, higher earnings should bring the P/E ratio down meaningfully.

In terms of risks, two big ones for me are AI disruption and a major economic slowdown. Today’s results don’t seem to show any challenges from AI, but I keep hearing that people are turning to Claude and other AI models to draft legal documents, eliminating the need for lawyers (if anyone has any experience here feel free to drop comments in the comments section).

It’s worth noting that Keystone is embracing AI itself. In today’s update, it says:

Having successfully deployed a secure enterprise grade version of ChatGPT and Claude as well as the Netdocuments generative AI tool during FY2026, we have continued to extend the suite of AI tools available to our lawyers, successfully rolling out CoCounsel Legal during the Period. As a leading generative AI tool specifically designed to work for the legal industry, CoCounsel's major differentiating factor is its ability to access not only open-source data but, more importantly, it accesses the extensive, market leading, legal knowledge databases owned by Thomson Reuters. This roll out builds on the successes of last year and we have seen an increasing level of uptake and utilisation of these AI solutions.

Back in April, Graham gave Keystone Law a GREEN rating. However, at the time, he said that if the stock hit 600p by the date of his next coverage, and there haven’t been any further upgrades, he would return to a more conservative stance.

Given that we have strong results today and an increase to guidance, I’m happy to leave the stock on a GREEN rating. I do have some concerns over AI disruption in the long run, however, for now, we appear to have growth at a reasonable price. 

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Kromek (LON:KMK) 

Down 2% at 6.94p (£47m) - Final Results - Ed S - AMBER =

Radiation detection and advanced imaging specialist Kromek has posted its final results for the year ended 30 April 2026.

Financial highlights:

• Revenue increased to £27.1m (2025: £26.5m).

• Advanced Imaging revenue was £19.9m (2025: £20.3m)

• On an underlying basis* Advanced Imaging revenue rose 76% to £6.7m (2025: £3.8m).

• CBRN Detection revenue increased by 17% to £7.3m (2025: £6.2m).

• Gross margin was 62.8% (2025: 80.9%) due to revenue mix, including high-margin licensing revenue accounting for a higher proportion of revenue in 2025.

• Adjusted EBITDA of £8.1m (2025: £10.3m)*.

• Profit before tax was slightly ahead of expectations at £2.5m (2025: £3.1m).

• Cash and cash equivalents at 30 April 2026 were £4.2m (30 April 2025: £1.7m), having secured a three-year revolving credit facility of £6.0m during the year.

• Net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of £1.5m at 30 April 2026 (30 April 2025: £1.2m net cash (excluding lease liabilities)).

* Adjusted to exclude the licensing revenue contribution to both years from the Enablement Agreement signed with Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc. in FY2025 and a non-recurring major new sale to an existing customer delivered in H2 2026.

Outlook:

• The new financial year is progressing well, with a healthy commercial pipeline and order book.

• The Board expects to deliver further growth in FY2027.

• The Group continues to trade in line with market expectations.

We enter FY2027 with positive momentum, supported by a healthy order book, an encouraging commercial pipeline and strong engagement with customers across both divisions. As demand develops for our Advanced Imaging technologies and government and security customers continue to invest in CBRN detection capabilities, we expect to deliver results in line with market expectations, including significant revenue growth in both divisions, while maintaining disciplined cost control and investment in key growth opportunities. Accordingly, the Board continues to look forward to the year ahead with confidence.

Ed S’s view:

Kromek operates across two divisions – Advanced Imaging and CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear) Detection. So, it’s essentially exposed to two growth markets – healthcare and security/defence.

Note that in FY2025, revenues in the company's Advanced Imaging division received a major boost from a large deal with Siemens Healthineers (the Enablement Agreement). This deal was for the provision of Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detectors for SPECT (single-photon emission computed tomography) imaging.

In FY2026, headline revenue in Advance Imaging was down slightly. However, underlying revenue increased by 76% to £6.7m (2025: £3.8m), driven by renewed engagement with customers following the completion of the deal with Siemens Healthineers.

Total profit before tax within Advanced Imaging was £1.7m (2025: £6.9m). The company notes that FY2025 captured the higher margin of licensing revenue under the Enablement Agreement.

In the CBRN Detection division, revenue increased by 17% to £7.3m. Profit before tax was £0.8m for the year compared with a loss before tax of £3.8m for the previous year.

During the year, the company secured its first order under the UK Government's Radiological Nuclear Detection Framework, which was for the supply of the D3S-ID wearable detector, alongside training and maintenance. The majority of the £1.7m of revenue under this order was delivered during the year and the remainder will be received as service revenue over the coming years.

In CBRN Detection, the ever-greater global focus on national security resulted in increased demand for Kromek's market-leading technologies for mission-critical applications.

Overall, I like the growth story here. However, the financials are a bit messy with adjustments boosting earnings per share significantly:

• Earnings per share for the year on a basic and diluted basis: 0.1p per share.

• Adjusted earnings per share excluding a non-cash deferred tax charge: 0.4p.

Taking those EPS figures, we get a P/E ratio of about 17.4 using the adjusted figure of 0.4 and a P/E ratio of 69 using the non-adjusted EPS figure.

Turning to the technicals, the stock enjoyed a sharp rise late in 2025 and early in 2026 amid a surge in interest in defence stocks. For a while there, it was trading above 12p.

However, in recent months the hype has faded and the stock has lost its momentum. Right now, the trend is pretty ugly.

Given the current set-up, I’m going to leave Kromek on AMBER. There’s definitely potential here, but the stock has little momentum at the moment.