Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 29th Oct 2026) - SHEL, ASAI, VANQ
UK Budget: here’s a quick overview of the highlights from yesterday's Budget, from my perspective.
Property and savings income - landlords and savers to pay higher tax, up two percentage points. No change to tax on dividends.
Your First Home: government-backed loans to be made available in England for households earning <£110k (£140k in London).
ISAs: no reduction in the amount that can be placed into cash ISAs.
Gaming machines: duty to rise from 20% to 25% on higher-stakes machines (I think this could have been a lot worse!).
Ecommerce: online platforms now have to collect VAT from their sellers.
Minimum wage (age 18 to 20) and National Living Wage (21+) both increase by nearly 4% to £11.27 and £13.21, respectively, from next April.
Overall, there weren't many big surprises and markets did not react. The FTSE 100 was almost unchanged on the day, and bond yields barely moved (10-year at 5.3%, 30-year at 5.7%).
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is up 0.4% at 10,725
S&P 500 is down 0.3% at 7,725
Brent crude (January) is down 0.8% at $110.70/bbl
Gold is down 0.9% at $4,035/oz
Bitcoin is down 1.7% at $79,800
Mark Simpson joins me today.
The table is complete.
Companies Reporting
Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Shell (LON:SHEL) (£226bn | SR99) | Income attributable to Shell plc shareholders $12,057m (Q2 $10,821m). Adjusted earnings $10,814m (Q2 $9,836m). “Higher Refining margins, higher realised LNG prices and higher Integrated Gas volumes.” | AMBER/GREEN ↑ (Mark) | |
Glencore (LON:GLEN) (£63.5bn | SR76) | "Full year 2026 production guidance for our key commodities has been maintained, with zinc and energy coal expected towards the upper end of their respective ranges, copper and steelmaking coal towards the lower end and nickel around the middle.” | ||
Lloyds Banking (LON:LLOY) (£59.5bn | SR59) | On track to deliver its full year guidance: Underlying net interest income of greater than £14.9 billion, return on tangible equity of greater than 16%. | ||
HALEON (LON:HLN) (£32.9bn | SR52) | Q3 organic revenue growth 2.6%. FY26 organic revenue growth guidance: now expected to be around 2.5% (previously 3% to 5%). Adjusted operating profit: continue to expect high-single digit growth at constant currency. | REVENUE WARNING (no change to profit guidance) | |
Bunzl Public (LON:BNZL) (£8.94bn | SR93) | Buys Wessex Cleaning Equipment and Janitorial Supplies (revenue £11m in FY March 2026). | ||
IMI (LON:IMI) (£6.87bn | SR67) | Now expects full year adjusted basic earnings per share to be between 137p and 143p (previously between 136p and 142p). Reflects additional contribution from Truflo Marine, the disposal of which is now expected to complete in Q4 (previously Q3), as well as stronger growth in Transport. | ||
St James's Place (LON:STJ) (£5.64bn | SR60) | Net inflows £0.57 billion. Funds under management at record high £242 billion. | ||
Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) (£4.97bn | SR92) | 9M 2026 free cash flow of $749 million. Production guidance narrowed to the upper end at 145-155 kboepd (from 135-155 kboepd), reflecting strong YTD performance. Capex guidance lowered to $280-$340 million (from $360-440 million), primarily due to phasing, given the late arrival of the offshore rig. | ||
Whitbread (LON:WTB) (£4.59bn | SR68) | In England, business rates will be frozen for two years so that no property in the hospitality sector faces an above inflation increase… “we expect that these changes will have a significant positive impact on the Group’s financial performance”. By FY29, business rates payments will be between £45m and £60m lower than previously expected. | ||
WPP (LON:WPP) (£4.14bn | SR81) | Q3 revenue +0.5% LfL. Revenue less pass-through costs down 2.1% LfL. Q3 performance in line with expectations. Reiterating 2026 guidance. | ||
Resolute Mining (LON:RSG) (£1.32bn | SR63) | Gold production -2% QoQ to 44,398oz. Costs similar, giving an AISC +1% to $2,506/oz. EBITDA -50% QoQ to $64m. Net Cash $276.1m (Q2: $317.4m). | ||
PPHE Hotel (LON:PPH) (£636m | SR54) | Total revenue +5.8% (+6.3% LFL) to £164.9m, driven by a strong performance from the London and Croatian properties. | ||
Rank (LON:RNK) (£413m | SR73) | Notes the increase in Machine Games Duty. Anticipated that the annualised impact of this move will be an additional cost of £9m (current year £2m), prior to mitigating actions. Remains confident of delivering Group LFL operating profit in line with expectations for the current year. | ||
ACG Metals (LON:ACG) (£398m | SR33) | Q3 YTD oxide production 22,717 oz AuEq, exceeding the original full-year target. FY2026 oxide production guidance has been upgraded by 43% to 25,000 oz AuEq. Net debt 30 Sep $185m. | ||
ASA International (LON:ASAI) (£258m | SR81) | Gross OLP +20% YoY in continuing markets to $631m (+14% total). Client base +9% YoY in continuing markets (+4% total). Wind-down of India operations substantially completed. | GREEN= (Graham - I hold) | |
Wilmington (LON:WIL) (£247m | SR75) | Notified by Guy Millward, Chief Financial Officer, that he intends to retire. The Board has commenced a process to identify a successor. | ||
Vanquis Banking (LON:VANQ) (£187m | SR45) | Recognised increased IFRS 9 expected credit loss provisions, resulting in a small loss in the quarter. Outlook: Gross customer interest-earning balances now expected to be c.£3.3bn at the end of this year and grow more modestly to c.£3.4bn by the end of 2027. RAM is now expected to be c.8.0% for FY26 and c.7.5% for FY27, reflecting recent credit performance. | PROFIT WARNING (FY26 & FY27 Guidance cut) /AMBER/RED ↓ (Mark) | |
EnSilica (LON:ENSI) (£106m | SR36) | New ASIC development and supply contract with a US healthcare technology company, worth approximately US$2.4 million in development revenues. Development programme will be over an expected 18-month period. | ||
H-Power (LON:HPOW) (£95.7m | SR4) | Entered into Heads of Terms with Protium Green Solutions for the supply of a HY5 ammonia cracker. Initial two-year contract is expected to commence in the second half of 2027. | ||
Touchstone Exploration (LON:TXP) (£50.9m | SR58) | CR-3 Karamat completed, flow testing commenced Oct 19, with the well producing 5.0 MMcf/d and 6.8 MMcf/d at different choke settings during extended testing. | ||
Kr1 (LON:KR1) (£37.3m | SR26) | Launch of Technology Infrastructure operations on Bittensor, enabled by recent acquisitions of TAO, the network’s native digital asset. |
Analyst notes
- Shell (LON:SHEL)
Shell - A beat on earnings, cash flow and increased buyback bodes well for the near future
Today's results are strong with positive surprises on earnings, cash flow and the scale of the ongoing buyback. In light of this, we should view the company positively. However, I think commodity plays should always come with an element of caution. After all, the commodity gods can often take away what they have only recently given. For that reason, I take a slightly more restrained AMBER/GREEN stance.
- Vanquis Banking (LON:VANQ)
Vanquis Bank - Seemingly benign guidance changes postpone recovery, and lead to some huge earnings downgrades
Last time I reviewed Vanquis following the Interim Results, I reduced our view to AMBER, saying:
With current-year EPS forecasts cut by 63%, this no longer looks like good value on earnings unless you believe the FY28 forecasts. Given the scale of today's downgrades, the idea that this is just a recovery delayed must be taken with a pinch of salt. The discount to TBV suggests there is value here if that recovery comes. However, with earnings being the difference between several large numbers, I wouldn’t be brave enough to forecast exactly when that is.
However, having called the outlook credibility issues correctly, I clearly wasn't negative enough in our view, as the share price is now half what it was back then.
The now-large discount to TBV gives some hope to very long-term holders. However, with the desired recovery repeatedly pushed further out and capital ratios potentially restricting shareholder returns and raising risk if further losses ensue, I will correct last time's oversight and take a more negative stance today. AMBER/RED
The market reaction today is fair: any uptick in PAR>30 ought to be treated with some caution. Personally, I'm satisfied with the explanation that this is a country-specific issue. One of ASAI's attractions for me is its geographic diversifation; however, the downside of this is that there will usually be a problem in at least one of its locations. The potential value on offer here remains exceptional, to my eyes, and so I retain our fully positive stance.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.
24 comments
Future (LON:FUTR)
Sky news
https://news.sky.com/story/struggling-london-listed-media-group-future-rebuffs-interest-in-the-week-13603560
and the SR has just gone over 90. No position, but thinking about it. Results in early Dec (3rd). No DSMR coverage since interims. EDIT curent short 6.66%
ASA International (LON:ASAI) has a HUGE debt pile!!!!
ASA International (LON:ASAI)
has a HUGE debt pile!!!!
No shit - its a money lender - the money they need to lend out has to come from somewhere - ok it may be preferable that they would have people depositing funds with them rather than them having to borrow (you dont want a northern rock type situation).
Note Graham nicely summed up how they do business in a recent update (30/7)so i will just copy and paste info below.
to me taking grahams comments at face value it seems they have areally good safety net due to the high margins they make - so if they costs go up 2-3% they should still be making good money - thats not always the case with uk lenders who are preumbaly more regulated ref rates charged. aty face here the margins are fantastic - the risks are probabaly more geopolitical.
PAR >30 (GN note: portfolio at risk, more than 30 days due) of 2.4% vs. 2.0% a year ago
PAR>30 was 2.4% as at 30 June 2026 compared to 2.0% as at 30 June 2025, which remains industry-leading. One of the main drivers was the introduction of new trade regulations in Uganda which negatively affected clients.
I’d be more concerned about this if ASAI was a marginally profitable lender. But that’s not the case: net interest margin was 39.3% in 2025. Speaking roughly, this represents a huge spread between the yield the company earns on its loans, and the interest it pays on its borrowings. Net interest income was $244m, while total operating expenses were $143m.
Note sticky has them down as having 194p per share book value nowish (shareprice 250p) - if they are earning 70p eps and paying out 20p divis - thats some nice excess real value dropping through - note it will be levereged buisness model so that if loans increase at a lick that may increase at faster rate than profits made so extra funding needed.
Its pretty basic though if you have company making decent clean earnings and p/e is only 5 - it shouldnt take long for the benefits to be seen in shareprice as long as there is no hidden nasties. Perhaps within 2 years if shareprice stays where it is assets would be worth the shareprice alone.
The dream scenario for companies like this is if you can can sweet spot of nice organic growth and also reduce your external fundining requirements each year on lfl basic - then you also potentially get benefit of lower future costs on your debt - plus the marekt sees the company as less risky.
On the negative side - well money lending has alwasy ben kinda like the wild west - tehn buisnes model only ever works when customers are happy to repay all of what they borrow - plus some reasonable margins on top to cover profit and bad debt. Thats often the danger here is that growing lending books can hide issues within book - historically many companies covered over the cracks by lending more to cover those thats stuggled to pay - you need to hope that the company you invest in is doesnt have any sort of black hole in its debtors book - or sources of funding. stuff like that probbaly mostly explains the low ratings some of these lenders have when listed.
Hi Graham
Any chance of a quick review ofIMI (LON:IMI) . TU looks good an apartment from debt looks like a Buffet share. One I've ignored before
I am puzzled by the constant references to the middle east effect on petrol/gas prices. There seems to be the standard headline references, as mentioned, but underneath those, allegedly supplies have greatly increased as a result of US blockades, and ships finding a way through.
Claims are that the traders are keeping the price up but that this will fall in the not too distant?!
The general public don't buy crude, refiners do. We buy the refined product. The bottleneck is not crude supply, it's refineries & refined products (diesel, jet fuel etc.). Alot of M East refineries are still shut in, Russian refineries are going up in smoke & China has cut oil imports & reduced refinery runs. Look at the crack spread and the price of diesel, that's where the real stress is. The price of oil has kept remarkably low considering the unprecedented disruption to supply. Could easily have gone to $150-200 a barrel. Reasons it didn't include abundant pre Iran war stocks, SPR releases, resilient M East supply workarounds etc.
Worth reminding its ex divi day to day and popular shares such as Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) and Kier (LON:KIE) are a bit lower.
Hopefully Graham gets a chance to look at the update from ASA International (LON:ASAI) today.
+1 for ASA International (LON:ASAI) please - i currently hold Time Finance (LON:TIME) but the takeover there should be complete soon so i kinda mentally have the cash burninga hole in my pocket - this seems like decent potential similar lfl replacement candidiate with the uber low p/e. Not sure how tricky it is doing buisness in the places it lend money ?- eg the exit from India waht that does to tougher lending rules ? with a spread of different countries you would think that would provide some sort of worst case safety net if they had to stop in say their biggest market. With pe of under 5 ish one would hope there is some scope for bad news in one country to still leave decent returns beig made. the update seemed chipper and the stocky forecasts for next year show decent expected growth in bottom line. Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB) is trading on similarly cheap p/e with even bettre growth expected next year - perhaps uk is slightly less of the wild west - i already own som ehere though. Perhaps 50% on each is the way to go if i do make the switch.
Osb (LON:OSB) should be a beneficiary of the pivot back to £20K cash ISA's via their Kent Reliance business, although their products do need to get a bit more competitive. Nice dividend yield. No emerging market lending sleepless nights!
Housebuilders
I posted yesterday following the BRCK (LON:BRCK) results and now we have seen full details and costs etc for the new FTB scheme. Oh whoops no surprise that the sector has retreated as not only do Housebuilders have to pay a fee to the Government but 4.7bn seems woefully short of the amount needed to create an environment where the industry as a whole can benefit from the housing market being unwound from its current lethargy. Outlook more squeezed margins and need for incentives from the industry at a time when costs are still rising
We are seemingly not at the cyclical bottom........
But still some positive news?
still 4.7bn! hardly negative
I'd say the market was hoping for a lot more than what was announced regarding support for the housing market so not surprised markets reacted negatively
The Magnum Ice Cream (LON:MICC) Q3 Update. https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/gnw/the-magnum-ice-cream-company--micc/q3-2026-trading-update/9846824.
Sweet results for ice cream lovers. I hold.
What if next summer is a wet one?
The Magnum Ice Cream (LON:MICC)
What if next summer is a wet one?
buy an umbrella or seek shelter when you have your ice cream ?
being serious not far off 50% of sales are in the americas - dont know exactly what % of sales are in the uk but i doubt its much more than 20% of total sales.
Let’s not forget Ms Reeves already increased taxes on property rental now 24%, 44% or 49% from next April. I’ll be looking to pass this on if possible. At least bond mkts quiet it seems, big issues not addressed but in fairness perhaps it’s not the time, we need the Gulf situation to get sorted then we can all profit from it.
hopefully the equalisation is coming so those that want to buy can - facts are people with btl properties have previously outbid people who would want want to own a home due to ability to borrow and pay low tax (no ni) - hopefully someone in your same position sells up and your current tenant may have the chance to buy that rather than line your pockets and the pockets of HMRC or find more understanding landlord - note it is kinda sad we are here with population up 10 mill and nothing like enough new homes built - nothing against btl landlords but they don’t need self pity and for many years it was kinda close to free lunch for those that could borrow cheaply or had a wad of cash - you might be right that rents may go up - if it’s a dig at labour well tories did the same
There was an interview this morning on Breakfast Radio 4 with CEO of Grainger (LON:GRI) She stated that well over 90% of rental properties are owned privately and that there is a desperate need for rental properties - its not a case of BTL owners competing against others. I know - we had one in east London - tried to sell to the tenant who was keen but no way. Even first time buyers struggled and this was a cheaper side of London.
She stated that well over 90% of rental properties are owned privately and that there is a desperate need for rental properties
I am sorry but at a basic level the maths here is simple
If you have one less property in rental pool - you have one more property owned and you have 1 less tenant looking for a rental property. It makes zero differece to demand the amount of landlords there are.
- its not a case of BTL owners competing against others.
nonsense facts are BTL owners are competing against other BTL owners
mikebianchi may find that new BTL owner buys house next door and wants a new tenant - that new owner has structured their finances so they dont pay higher rate tax - to get same payback well they can charge 25% less rent and still have higher return due to lower tax thats a huge difference - they can afford not to increase rent and make same margins as mikebianchi - its nonsense to sugest that if one keeps putting rent up at some stage someone else may not come along and undercut them - thats just basic economics - - obviously the elepehant in the room is population increasing faster than houseing stock - so where their is shortage thats clearly mostly due to simply not having enough houses.
You are welcome to buy one of my properties. Prices are going down as there is a flood of properties on the market from landlord but no first time buyers! New built properties always have a premium.
49% wow
I was looking at a charitable organisation’s history that was founded in 1906. Income tax at a shilling in the pound (5%). No VAT. People with money could afford to be charitable.