Small Cap Value Report (Mon 16 Apr 2018) - Mello 2018, OMI, PCF, XLM, CER, KNOS

Monday, Apr 16 2018 by
71

Good morning!

RNS announcements have hit the tape at 7.25am, giving us 35 mins to read and decide what to do in advance of the market open.

Would anybody like to start a petition for after-hours updates instead of 7am (when we're lucky) updates?!

Anyway, here are some stocks which have caught my attention so far.

  • Orosur Mining Inc (LON:OMI) - Q3 results
  • PCF (LON:PCF) - £100 million in retail deposits (I hold)
  • Carr's (LON:CARR) - interim results
  • XLMedia (LON:XLM) - "acquisition of leading UK Bingo comparison site"

We also had trading updates from Cerillion (LON:CER) and Kainos (LON:KNOS). I originally thought that Cerillion was in-line, but it looks like an EBITDA miss with the shares down by 7% in early trading.



Mello 2018

A quick word on the Mello 2018 conference which is coming up in less than two weeks. Paul, I and many of the Stockopedia team will be there so hopefully we will meet as many of you as possible.

Paul will be presenting a session on small-cap opportunities and threats while I will be taking part in a ShareSoc Masterclass event with Peter Higgins, Lord Lee, Leon Boros and Phil Oakley. We'll be covering two crucial topics - risk management and red flags.

Tickets for the Masterclass are sold separately and are nearly all sold out, but if you'd like to attend then please use the form on ShareSoc's website: link here.




Orosur Mining Inc (LON:OMI)

  • Share price: 5.625p (-12%)
  • No. of shares: 117.6 million
  • Market cap: £7 million

Q3 2018 Results

Apologies for going off-topic with this South American gold miner (we don't usually cover resources here).

Production is down and cash operating costs are up ($1065/oz). The company performed to expectations for several years but is now enduring a period of bad luck.

It is taking some drastic measures to preserve cash:

During the Quarter, and in large part due to the performance of the SG UG [San Gregorio Underground Mine], the Company commenced the implementation of a strategic initiative…

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Disclaimer:  

All my own views. I am not regulated by the FSA. No advice.

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Orosur Mining Inc. (Orosur) is a Canada-based gold producer and exploration company. The Company is focused on identifying and developing mineral opportunities. The Company operates in Uruguay, Chile and Colombia. In Uruguay, the Company operates the San Gregorio gold areas in the northern Department of Rivera. The Company is operating the Arenal Deeps underground mine and several open pits in the San Gregorio district. The Company has land holdings with active near mine and regional exploration programs. The gold is produced in the form of dore, which is shipped to refineries for final processing. In Chile, the Company conducts exploration and development activities on the Anillo property. The Company also owns the Pantanillo property, located in the Maricunga Belt and holds interests in the Talca exploration asset located close to La Serena, north of Santiago in Chile. more »

LSE Price
8.15p
Change
-6.3%
Mkt Cap (£m)
10.3
P/E (fwd)
1.8
Yield (fwd)
n/a

PCF Group plc, formerly Private & Commercial Finance Group plc, is engaged in banking business. The Company offers retail savings products for individuals. In addition, the Company deploys those funds through its two lending divisions such as consumer finance and business finance. Consumer finance, which provides finance for motor vehicles to consumers. Business finance, which provides finance for vehicles, plant and equipment to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The Company also provides both depositors and borrowers with a service and a straightforward, range of products tailored to suit their needs. more »

LSE Price
39.7p
Change
0.5%
Mkt Cap (£m)
83.8
P/E (fwd)
13.2
Yield (fwd)
1.1

XLMedia PLC is the United Kingdom-based online performance marketing company. The Company focuses on paying users from multiple online and mobile channels and directs them to online businesses who, in turn, convert such traffic into paying customers. The Company's segments include Publishing, Media and Partners Network. The Company owns over 2,000 informational Websites in approximately 20 languages. Its Media division acquires online and mobile advertising targeted at online traffic with the objective of directing it to its customers. It buys advertising space on search engines, Websites, mobile and social networks and places advertisement referring users to its customers Websites or to its own Websites. It manages marketing partners, whose role is to direct online traffic to its customers. Its partner program enables affiliates to have a single point of contact for directing traffic. more »

LSE Price
101p
Change
0.5%
Mkt Cap (£m)
221.5
P/E (fwd)
9.2
Yield (fwd)
6.1



  Is LON:OMI fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


21 Comments on this Article show/hide all

Housemartin2 16th Apr 2 of 21
4

XLMedia (LON:XLM) Does anyone else feel deprived of financial info with this RNS ? Maybe I am being unreasonable.

| Link | Share | 3 replies
clarea 16th Apr 3 of 21
4

XLMedia (LON:XLM) & Kainos (LON:KNOS) please Graham

| Link | Share | 2 replies
Edward John Canham 16th Apr 4 of 21
9

In reply to post #353643

XLMedia (LON:XLM)

This transaction was in the public domain a week ago.

https://onlinebingo.co.uk/news/whichbingo-sold-to-xl-media

Lack of financial information implies it's not very large but my veiw is that if they put out an RNS the values should be given otherwise it's impossible to assess the impact.

Phil

| Link | Share
mammyoko 16th Apr 5 of 21
1

Cerillion (LON:CER) please Graham. They have been winning significant contracts but these don't seem to be translating into expectation-beating results. I thought the market might mark them down more severely as a consequence this morning.

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ppdrs 16th Apr 6 of 21
3

In reply to post #353643

I agree. An RNS from XLMedia (LON:XLM) that gives no financial details about the acquisition target, what they paid (or even a ballpark indication of size), how they've funded it, or what impact it will have on earnings. Basically this RNS was completely pointless!


Graham, if you have time, I'd appreciate any brief comments about the trading update from Kainos (LON:KNOS).  Also to add my thanks for the very informative commentary from you and Paul!

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Chrisfarrell21 16th Apr 7 of 21
1

In reply to post #353698

On XLMedia (LON:XLM) it's one of those grey RNSs which I understand to be marketing gumpf. I don't know what, if any, rules there are for what's contained in a grey RNS, but it presumably means it's not financially material.

Thanks

Chris

| Link | Share
bestace 16th Apr 8 of 21
10

In reply to post #353643

It's been issued as a non-regulatory RNS, so it's immaterial. The most recently filed accounts for Whichbingo are for the year ending 31 December 2016, which showed net assets of less than £1.5m, of which cash was £1.2m.

The company was small enough not to have to report an income statement, but looking at the movement on retained earnings it seems to have made a net profit in 2016 of £600k. By adding back the depreciation charge and the year end creditor for corporation tax gives an implied EBITDA of around £800k. Then apply a 'finger in the air' multiple to either of those figures to get an indication of what they might have paid.

It's always a bit suspect trying to analyse the accounts of private companies which have limited disclosures, are now over a year out of date, and where the reported figures may not necessarily reflect the performance of the actual business, so the above should be taken with a big pinch of salt.

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willhampson 16th Apr 9 of 21
6

My suspicion with the XLMedia (LON:XLM) announcement this morning, given that the deal was public about a week ago (as Phil points out above), is that originally it was not deemed a material transaction but they then decided to put out the RNS to attempt to arrest the SP slide. It seems to have failed. A patient, but slightly frustrated holder.

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Graham Neary 16th Apr 10 of 21

In reply to post #353648

re: XLMedia (LON:XLM). Kainos (LON:KNOS). Will do! G

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mercury61 16th Apr 11 of 21
4

GAME Digital (LON:GMD) seems to have some heavy hicoups

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barnetpeter 16th Apr 12 of 21
4

Don't forget to vote for Paul and Graham in the 2018 investor awards! Only takes a moment.....

| Link | Share
xxx 16th Apr 13 of 21

Graham, do you think that having post hrs updates is impractical due to the number of stocks quoted on US exchanges ?

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Graham Neary 16th Apr 14 of 21
1

In reply to post #353758

Hi, do you mean dual-listed stocks? If they need to wait to announce when the US market closes, they could keep doing that. Apologies if I have misunderstood your question.

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Zipmanpeter 16th Apr 15 of 21
7

Graham,

Appreciate the write up of £PCL and cannot really fault its prospects. The operating margin has been going up for 5 years even before the move to full bank status permitted retail deposits (11-12% in 2012 to 18% in 2017). The process of obtaining the bank licence has not really caused costs to explode or credit execution to go awry, suggesting good management.  Now it is well set to grow fast

The 3 concerns that one could have are:
i) the 0.5% default level is so extremely low that it has (somehow) been dressed up/lucky  since lending on cars and SME machinery would normally see higher defaults even under benign conditions - although I see no evidence of this in weak policies
ii) that this level of control will be lost if the business grows as fast as it is targetting, especially if this coincides with a sharp UK recession for SME and/or a big decline in used car prices  - neither an unimaginable scenario
iii) as the banks have withdrawn, this has created a big opportunity for new financial models/new (bank) lenders like PCF. The flip of this is that if one of these new models really takes off, it could disrupt the PCF model in a big way eg crowd funding. The average retail lender is depositing £40K for a 2% return pa !! People like this have many options. However, people are typically very conservative with the way they bank cash.

What's more, the simplicity of the model and the sticky (penalty) notice periods for deposits mean at worst, I think would then simply grow less fast than forecast.  But this is a risk since the price is nearly x2 book value when most banking companies would be closer to 1 or even less and with a much better dividend than PCF and will likely be several years before PCF pay a good one.

Finally, I agree your observation re the equity raise depressing ROE might 'confuse' valuation on a less followed stock.  This can be one the ever fewer sources of extra advantage a human has over a machine since it must be hard to write a programme to distinguish a 'good problem' like an expansion supporting equity raise which depressing a metric from one to fix a balance sheet.   (My current financial favourite Non-Standard Finance (LON:NSF) is (I hope and believe) suffering a similar blind spot as its reported statutory losses have exacerbated by acquisition costs accounting  and future short term profits depressed by early recognition of impairment losses in new IAS standards.  In between stands a good business).

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Graham Neary 16th Apr 16 of 21

In reply to post #353648

re: XLMedia (LON:XLM) and Kainos (LON:KNOS). Getting there. Cheers! G

| Link | Share
Graham Neary 16th Apr 17 of 21
2

In reply to post #353783

Brilliant stuff, Peter, thanks. I agree with you that PCF (LON:PCF) valuation could be a bit punchy for some. You've made plenty of good points there for me and other bulls to digest.

Best,

Graham

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daveinthelakes 17th Apr 18 of 21

Graham,

It would be interesting to have your thoughts on the relative merits of PCF (LON:PCF) and Arbuthnot Banking (LON:ARBB) as you have looked at both recently.

Dave

I am a long term holder of Arbuthnot

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Graham Neary 17th Apr 19 of 21

In reply to post #353953

Thanks for the suggestion Dave, I guess I could do some kind of round-up of financial stocks. G

| Link | Share | 1 reply
daveinthelakes 17th Apr 20 of 21

In reply to post #354363

Thanks Graham. That is a great idea if time permits. Dave

| Link | Share
GageacBob 2nd May 21 of 21

PCF was reported on recently by Graham-an interesting on-line bank, that is described in the stock sheet, as being a momentum trap. But the chart, and all one reads on this one, doesn't seem to suit that rather negative view, and it does seem to be on a good run upwards at the moment, or is that the danger, or am I missing something? Thanks.

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About Graham Neary

Graham Neary

Full-time investor and independent analyst. Prior to this, I spent seven years in the financial markets as an analyst and institutional fund manager. I'm CFA-qualified, also holding the Investment Management Certificate and the STA Diploma in Technical Analysis.Away from finance, my main interests are recreational poker and everything to do with China, especially Mandarin Chinese. more »

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