Good morning, it's Paul here!

I'm up early today, to finish off the unfinished sections from yesterday. There seems to be so much going on at the moment, which sometimes distracts me from the task in hand here.

Here are a couple of interesting situations which I've been immersed in recently, GAME Digital (LON:GMD) , and Air Partner (LON:AIR);



GAME Digital (LON:GMD)

Share price: 38.7p (up 7.6% yesterday, at market close)
No. shares:  172.9m
Market cap: £66.9m

(at the time of writing, I hold a long position in this share)

Takeover bid speculation

NB. This is speculation on my part, but the reported trades yesterday do seem to suggest something might be going on.

I monitor all positions in my portfolio pretty much in real time, and when there's unusually large volume traded, I sit up and take notice. This can occasionally be a precursor to a takeover bid, if a potential acquirer is buying stock in the market. The trouble is, we don't know who is buying or selling, until the "holding in company" RNS(s) come out, day(s) later.

Sometimes though, very large volume goes through, and you can work out who is selling (but not necessarily who is buying).

In this case, with Game Digital, I noticed traded volume of over 60m shares early yesterday afternoon. Bear in mind that a more typical daily volume for this share is under 1m shares, so something unusual seems to be happening.

I got my broker to email me over the list of >3% shareholders, from his Bloomberg terminal, as I couldn't readily find that information on GMD's own website. Next, I looked at the reported trades for GMD yesterday (courtesy of MoneyAM), and noticed this block of very large trades;


5acd9a79a32b2GMD_trades.PNG


The "buy" or "sell" indicator is meaningless, as by definition every trade in the market has to have both a buyer & a seller, otherwise the shares wouldn't change hands at all.

The trades I have highlighted above stand out like a sore thumb, because they are;

  • very large
  • at the same price of 35p
  • bunched together, happening a few seconds apart, so are very likely to be the same seller (not…

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