Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 1st September 2025) - KNOS, JNEO, SUP, TIG, DOM, DIA, XPF, SATS

Good morning!

Meteorological Autumn has begun and, as usual, we expect a vast quantity of interim results statements to rain down on us this month!

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All done for now, cheers!

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link (last updated to: 11th August).

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Companies Reporting

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Graham's Section

Supreme (LON:SUP)

Up 2% to 183p (£218m) - Acquisition of 1001 carpet care brand - Graham - AMBER/GREEN

An interesting little deal for Supreme:

...the acquisition of the trade and intellectual property of 1001, the iconic carpet care brand trusted by consumers for decades ("1001") for a fixed consideration of £1.65 million (including £0.35 million of deferred consideration) from the US-based WD-40 Company. The transaction also provides for the purchase of inventory at book value, with additional contingent consideration, associated with future sales growth, up to a maximum of £3 million.

Supreme is perhaps most well known for its vaping brands, but it has a range of activities and brands beyond that.

• 88vape

• Typhoo Tea

• Battle Bites - protein bars

• Millions & Millions - vitamins

• Elfbar vape distribution

• Duracall/Panasonic battery distribution

See here (external link) for the complete list.

While I'm generally cautious when it comes to M&A, I have no issue when it comes to small, bolt-on acquisitions like this.

At its last full-year results, Supreme reported net cash (excluding leases) of £1.2m - a modest figure, but PBT was over £30m. In the current financial year, PBT is forecast to reduce only slightly. So current profits should easily pay for today’s acquisition many times over.

The strategic rationale sounds smart to me:

This acquisition is fully aligned with Supreme's M&A strategy, strengthening its portfolio of everyday essential consumer goods. With Supreme's vertically integrated platform and distribution network spanning 40,000 retail outlets, 1001 presents a compelling opportunity to accelerate growth at minimal incremental cost….

Expansion of Supreme's portfolio with another well-recognised consumer brand
Immediate earnings enhancement
Access to new retail customers, including Aldi
Longer-term potential to develop 1001 into a broader household cleaning brand, a high-growth category particularly within the discount retail channel

Estimates: we are told that 1001’s revenues for FY August 2025 are expected to be c. £4.5m. It looks like Equity Development have left their estimates unchanged for now: for FY March 2026, they forecast revenue of £240m (+4%) and adjusted earnings per share of 19.5p (down 5%).

Graham’s view

This reminds me very much of the Typhoo Tea acquisition - that was another well-liked old British consumer brand, bought up by Supreme at a modest price (£10m). This is even smaller than that, but the motivation looks similar.

The big picture for Supreme is that it is grappling with the ban on single-use vapes. That ban has been in place for a few months now, and my understanding is that the vape industry has moved on to rechargeable and refillable systems that are in line with new regulations. Supreme sells 88vape, Lost Mary, Elf Bar and other vape brands that are compliant with the new rules.

While noting that Roland was AMBER on this in July, I would tend to have quite a bullish view on smoking/vaping as an investment category (please note that I own BATS). Therefore, I’m inclined to be moderately positive on Supreme at this valuation:

I also note a StockRank of 93 (and it’s a Super Stock):

When it comes to management, I would have a positive view of their M&A strategy, as deals like that announced today (and Typhoo Tea) strike me as opportunistic, interesting, and quite low-risk.

Supreme has earned excellent quality metrics over the years, which I think helps to prove that it’s more than just your standard low-margin distributor. I think of it more as a brand owner, although its pure distribution activities have also been highly profitable:

The CEO behind the strategy is a 56% shareholder. I didn’t realise that he owned so much of it, but I did expect him to own a large percentage - that’s consistent with an ambitious but low-risk M&A strategy.

Some people will want to stay away from any stock with a majority shareholder, and others (for good reasons) will avoid the vaping category. But on valuation and its prospects, I have to say that I like the outlook for shareholders here. So I'm upgrading our stance by one notch. The main risk is that vaping profits will be volatile, and there is vulnerability to any future regulatory changes. But as things stand, it seem to me that the industry is successfully navigating the changes announced so far.

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Roland's Section

Kainos (LON:KNOS)

Up 18% to 836p (£988m) - Roland - Trading Statement - AMBER/GREEN

Today’s half-year update from this IT services provider guides investors to expect revenue at the upper end of forecasts for the year ending 31 March 2026 (FY26). Profit forecasts for FY26 have been left in line for now, perhaps opening the door for an upgrade if momentum remains strong.

The market has given this news a resounding thumbs up.

Let’s take a look at the main points from today’s update;

• Following a strong sales performance in Q4 2025, Kainos delivered “further sequential improvement” in H1, creating “opportunities for further operating progress” during the rest of the year;

• Kainos is recruiting additional staff and ramping up use of contractors to support new projects across all three of its operating divisions.

A brief summary of highlights is provided for each of these divisions.

Workday Products (add-ons to the Workday (NSQ:WDAY) system): “strong growth”, passing $100m annualised recurring revenue (ARR) in July. Working with partners including Diageo on a new Pay Transparency product. This is due to launch in Q3 to support the EU Pay Transparency Directive that comes into force in June 2026;

Workday Services: Kainos is a specialist in deploying Workday’s Finance, HR and Planning products and expects to report a return to growth during the current year, “driven by improved results in our core European and North American markets”

Digital Services (in house software products developed for clients): “secured several significant programmes” including new contracts with the Home Office, NHS England and the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency. Also seeing strong revenue growth in North America, but performance in the commercial sector during H1 remained “muted and below prior-year levels”.

Outlook & Estimates: today’s update provides fairly clear guidance as it includes details of current consensus forecasts – this is very helpful for investors trying to digest RNS updates efficiently and should be standard practice, in my view.

Kainos says FY26 revenue is expected to be at the upper end of expectations, while adjusted pre-tax profit is expected to be in line with current consensus forecasts. This gives us the following guidance:

• Revenue: at the upper end of £378-393.4m

• Adjusted pre-tax profit: current consensus is £66.4m

There’s also an updated note available from broker Canaccord Genuity on Research Tree today - many thanks. CG’s analysts have left their FY26 estimates unchanged for earnings of 51.1p per share.

That puts Kainos on a current year forecast P/E of 16 at the time of writing.

Roland’s view

Kainos reported net cash of £134m at the end of March and the group’s CEO is a 5% shareholder. When paired with the group’s impressive quality metrics, this is enough to make me think it might be an above-average business:

Profit growth since the 2016 IPO has been strong, albeit inconsistent:

Kainos benefited from exceptional growth in healthcare revenue during the pandemic and this has subsequently normalised. However, today’s update strikes a confident note. I think it could be a sign that the business is now returning to a more normal growth trend.

Graham and I have taken a neutral (AMBER) view on this IT services and technology group on three occasions since last November’s profit warning:

Today’s update has triggered a double-digit share price gain, but I think it’s worth remembering that profit expectations are unchanged today – this isn’t a big upgrade.

Even so, I think the tone of today’s update provides some reassurance that last year’s profit warning is firmly in the rear-view mirror. I’m also impressed by the group’s seemingly strong presence in the UK public sector – an area where IT spending seems likely to increase.

While I note Stockopedia’s Falling Star styling, I think we could soon see this improve if Kainos continues to display positive momentum. I’m going to tentatively upgrade our view to AMBER/GREEN today.