Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 15th Oct 2026) - TPX, JNEO, JUP, PMI, XPS, THG, DNLM

Good morning! Markets are a little weaker overnight after US inflation came in higher than expected.

The annual inflation rate was 3.7%, versus consensus expectations of 3.6%.

The result was driven by a sharp rise in petrol prices. According to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, “the index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.” 

This helps to give context for President Trump’s sudden decision to import Russian diesel, and his announcement of an unconfirmed “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine.

Even excluding food and energy, the annual core inflation rate (2.6%) was higher than the consensus forecast of 2.5%.

The news had an immediate impact on interest rate expectations. From Bloomberg:

"Markets are now pricing in about 40 basis points of Fed hikes by the end of January, with the odds of an October move also edging up."

The next Fed interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, October 28th.

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.2% at 10,710

• S&P 500 is down 0.4% at 7,690

• Brent crude (December) is down 1.6% at $104.35/bbl

• Gold is up 0.8% at $4,140oz

• Bitcoin is down 1.4% at $80,500

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Mark Simpson joins me today.
All done for today, thank you. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Mark's Section

Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX)

Up 13% at 91p (£77.2m) - First Half Trading Update - Mark - GREEN =

TPX Impact continues to compound my error in selling when the share price rose 40% on an in-line trading statement accompanying their interim results last December. The rise itself seemed excessive. However, I missed that it marked a turning point for both trading momentum and the market's perception of the company, shifting from one that misses expectations to one that hits or exceeds them.

As I wrote recently when reviewing competitor MadeTech, companies in this space find themselves at the confluence of three positive factors:

• Drive to improve public sector efficiency: IT projects are seen as a key pillar of that aim.

• Catch-up from the delayed Spending Review: This created a long freeze followed by a release of pent-up demand.

• Shift to SMEs: This deliberate policy shift structurally favours firms exactly like TPX and Made Tech that are digital-native, agile-delivery consultancies built to sell into frameworks.

This positive momentum shows no sign of slowing down as of today, TPX say; their H1 delivered:

- Revenue of at least £57.0m (H1 FY26: £36.2m), representing at least 57% year-on-year growth;
- Adjusted EBITDA* of at least £7.5m (H1 FY26: £3.2m), representing at least 134% year-on-year growth;

I'm not really a fan of Adj. EBITDA as a metric, but there are signs that this is turning into cash:

Strengthened balance sheet with net cash as at 30 September 2026 of £1.0m (vs FY27 opening position of £4.2m net debt) - a significant acceleration against the previous guidance of eliminating net debt by the end of FY27.

Given this strength, it is perhaps unsurprising that they up their FY guidance:

- Revenue of at least £105m (previous guidance was for healthy double-digit revenue growth year-on-year)
- Adjusted EBITDA* of at least £14m (previous guidance was for adjusted EBITDA of not less than £12m)

This is a 17% upgrade to adjusted EBITDA, so it is a reasonable increase. They also appear to have delivered 54% of revenue and EBITDA guidance in H1. Historically, TPX has had a H2 Weighting, but since much of its delivery is project work subject to revenue-recognition timing, this doesn't automatically mean it's on for another beat. However, it does suggest they may still be guiding conservatively if past trends hold.

Cavendish upgrades their FY27E Adj. EPS figure from 8.3p to 9.8p, a 19% upgrade. They helpfully give a summary table of all of their recent forecast changes:

EPS has more than doubled in this time.

However, it is worth noting that the rating the shared trade on has increased over this time, too:

The shares were incredibly cheap at the end of 2025, and while a forward EV/EBITDA of 6 for a company performing this strongly still seems good value, it is not quite the bargain it once was.

This effect is seen more strongly in the FY28 numbers, where forecasts were only introduced in June. FY28E EPS was only increased by 9.7% to 11.3p today. The FY28 P/E goes from 6.3x in June to 8.1x today. Again, not expensive, but this assumes that the current business momentum continues into FY29 and beyond to continue to look cheap.

Mark's View

With the share price today rising roughly in line with the average upgrades to future years, the shares stay on roughly the same multiples. Share price strength over the summer means that the multiple has expanded and this is no longer as cheap as it once was.

However, strong H1 trading and a typical H2 weighting mean the company may still be guiding investors conservatively. On an absolute basis, the stock continues to look like good value.

The biggest risk remains that the current trading strength has less to do with company-level execution and more with recent industry trends that are "floating all boats". This means that if the tide of favourable conditions starts to go out, they may be left high and dry where they started. After all, the company had been loss-making for the last four years.

As today's update shows, there appears to be no sign of that tide reversing in the near term, and the company is cheaper than competitor Madetech on forward metrics, so we should remain positive. GREEN

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Journeo (LON:JNEO)

Flat at 542p (£96.1m) - Framework Agreement - Mark - AMBER/GREEN =

Journeo announce a new Framework agreement:

...the renewal of its framework agreement with Transport UK London Bus...The Agreement is expected to generate £6m in revenues over a 5-year period and will run through to October 2031.

This means roughly £1.2m a year. However, this is just 1.7% of their forecast £72m revenue for the current year, and is a renewal rather than an additional win.

This seems in keeping with their typical behaviour, which is to RNS any contract for greater than £1m, or that looks strategic.

When they released H1 results, they said:

Revenue for the full year is expected to be marginally ahead of current market expectations, with adjusted profit before tax remaining in line with market expectations.

H1 group revenue was £37.6m, up 53% from £24.5m. FY26 market expectations are revenue of £72m. That implies H2 revenue of about £35–36m, slightly below H1.

I asked Claude to look at all recent contract announcements and estimate the revenue from these that would land in H1 and H2:

This is actually better than I thought, as Claude estimates about £11m of known contract revenue would have landed in H1, and they delivered almost £38m of revenue. H2 has £16m of estimated known contracted revenue versus £35-36m to deliver.

So while I share Roland's previously voiced concerns that revenue from known RNSed contracts is looking a little light, I'm not sure there is currently a huge risk for FY26.

Their broker, Cavendish, also included FY27 forecasts for the first time, which show revenue of £80m but EPS rising only 3% to 33.4p, suggesting a growth in lower-margin work. This is where I start to feel concerned.

We already know the company has many smaller contracts that don't get RNSed, and that there is still 14.5 months to go to the end of that reporting period. However, my Claude summary only has a £9.3m estimate for known RNSed revenue at this point versus an £80m forecast. This is how Claude puts the risks here:

• About 60% of FY27 cover is framework run-rate.

  First Bus (£3.3m), First Bus London (£1.35m) and Transport UK (£1.2m) make up about £5.9m. These are expected values so that actual call-off volumes could differ.

• Alstom is the only large project still running into FY27.

  The company says most of its revenue falls across FY26 and FY27, with installation completing in 2027. About £2m of SaaS revenue then follows over five years.

• The recurring tails are small.

  Umove, Cornwall, Metroline and the maintenance contracts add up to about £0.7m. For context, group recurring revenue in FY25 was £7.7m, so some of these lines already overlap with that base.

• The gap to fill is large.

  FY26 is tracking at about £72m+, and announced contracts cover only about £9m of FY27. FY27 growth therefore depends on new orders: further utility call-offs, US repeat business, new local-authority work and the £200m pipeline.

Mark’s view

When Roland reviewed this last, the company was trading on a forward P/E of 14.2 in FY27, and he commented that "this doesn’t seem excessive to me for a business with a net cash balance sheet and decent quality metrics."

This multiple has risen to 16.2x on a strong share price, and even accounting for net cash, this multiple suggests the company should grow EPS in the mid-teens over the medium term. They've achieved this in the past. However, forward EPS growth is forecast to be below inflation; I think we need to start seeing higher contract newsflow soon to give any confidence of hitting that figure. When a company on a growth multiple starts to decline, even temporarily, the market reaction can often be brutal.

I'm not going to change our previously mostly positive view today. After all, FY26 looks more achievable than I'd previously assumed, and this contract renewal helps the FY27 numbers. Just that personally, I'm struggling to build confidence that FY27 estimates can be hit or even beaten, and therefore that the current rating can be justified.

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Premier Miton (LON:PMI)

Down 6% at 32p (£m) - Q4 AuM update - Mark - AMBER/RED =

This is another weak quarter for this asset manager. Pretty much all their strategies saw outflows and negative performance:

Although, interstingly UK equities is a bright spot (well, less-dim-than-the-others spot, to be precise).

The company says that:

Improving investment performance and lower redemption levels provide a more encouraging backdrop for flows

However, these numbers don't show much of that. A simple trend line suggests that, if anything, outflows are increasing:

The improvement seems to be limited to the month of September:

Following the elevated outflows in July and August, net outflows reduced significantly in September as redemption levels materially reduced across several strategies, while fixed income and macro thematic multi-asset funds continued to see good demand.

So that may be a sign of things bottoming. It's hard to tell from a single month.

There seems to be a recognition that performance in certain strategies is a problem:

However, there are areas where further progress is required. We continue to focus on improving shorter-term performance across our diversified multi-asset strategies. Absolute return has also experienced a challenging period for performance, reflecting a difficult backdrop for long-short strategies. More recent investment performance has been stable, and we retain confidence in the team and its ability to deliver the investment outcomes required to support greater stability in assets.

Like many companies in a similar situation, an increased focus on cost-cutting may be the only short-term lever they have:

Following a review over the summer, we have identified a further £1.5 million of annualised cost savings which are expected to be delivered over the next 12 months with an estimated one-off cost of £0.3 million.

This is a quick payback and looks necessary, so it is good that they are grasping the nettle.

Forecasts:

I can't see any updated coverage from Cavendish. But their £50.3m revenue and 3p of EPS were based on £8.6bn of AuM. One quarter alone doesn't make much of an impact, but with AuM ending at £8.1bn, it suggests they may miss slightly.

The impact on FY27E looks the most severe, as ending next year with £9.6bn in AuM now looks like a heroic assumption. The £49.3m revenue currently forecast (presumably due to pressure on fees) and hence the 3.2p forecast look unrealistic, although that £1.5m of cost-savings may help, as it would be around a quarter of PBT as things stand.

Cash:

It is better news on cash flow as they say this stands at £26m, which is up from the £24.6m at the year end, despite a £2.4m dividend paid in the period.

This is half the current market cap. However, some of this will be required for regulatory capital. The requirement stood at £13.4m at the half-year, and they wouldn't want to get too close to that, so we can assume around £10m is genuinely free cash that could be used for acquisitions or similar. They do say:

Our strong balance sheet and position as a listed business provide us with strategic and financial flexibility to pursue inorganic opportunities that can add scale, enhance our investment capabilities and broaden our access to attractive client segments.

The market has liked it recently when companies such as Liontrust have done small bolt-ons, adding more to the market cap than teh companies have spent.

Valuation:

It is perhaps unsurprising that the market hasn't liked this update this morning.

Without updates from their broker, it is hard to arrive at an accurate valuation multiple. If I assume, say, a 10% miss on FY26/27 EPS, then we get something like an 11x P/E falling to 10x for FY27. This would be closer to 8 if we adjust for free cash.

Cavendish are forecasting 3p dividend for this year from an additional 1.5p final dividend beofre this being cut to 2.4p for the full year next year. This is still a pretty decent yield of 10%->8%. However, if this ends up uncovered, the company may cut it further in the short term.

This doesn't make the company expensive, and there is the chance of cost-cutting improving some of these estimates.

Mark's View

The multiples here aren't demanding, especially if investors think the cyclical downturn in smaller active asset managers is about to turn.

However, there is no sign of slowing outflows in the recent quarterly numbers, and the company doesn't stand out as particularly cheap in the sector. Something the middling Value Rank picks out:

The very low Momentum Rank should also give us pause (although the example of recruiters recently shows that this figure can change rapidly if the share price starts rising).

It's hard to consider this company an investment until the numbers clearly show outflows have become inflows again. Until then, I'll keep my previously broad negative view.

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THG (LON:THG)

Up 17% at 32p (£467m) - Q3 2026 Trading Statement - Mark - RED ↓

From the title of the RNS, THG management appears to be excited by these results:

Strong profitability momentum drives upgrade of FY26 Adjusted EBITDA expectations to £103m

However, a quick look at the details leaves a far less-favourable impression:

THG Beauty seems to be continuing CCY revenue decline in absolute terms, not just after inflation. THG Nutrition had a much better quarter; however, one that grew below recent trends from H1. Myprotein continues to do the heavy lifting (as do presumably the consumers of this product!) But it is the drop in whey prices that really makes a difference:

Improving whey commodity pricing: WPC80 prices continue to decline through September and early October, as supply increases and growing product substitution, with the external index falling c.20% since the Group’s Interim Results. Q4 requirements have been secured at more favourable pricing than Q3, while Q1 2027 coverage is now being secured below prevailing market rates.

Doing a few quick estimates:

- Whey-based powders are still the core of Myprotein, but a growing share of sales is creatine, activewear, hydration and licensing. Assuming Nutrition’s cost of goods is about £400m and whey is 40–50% of it, THG buys about £150–200m of whey a year.

- A 20% drop in price for Q4 would £7.5-£10m gross savings, perhaps £3-6m net EBITDA gain as some of that is passed through to customers.

So, all things being equal, we can expect this factor alone to have added at least £3m to EBITDA, and to be behind some of today's upgrade. So how big was it?

After much scrolling, I get to:

Consensus being revenue £1,802.2m, Adjusted EBITDA £101.7m

So this turns out to be only a £1.3m EBITDA upgrade, i.e. 1.3%, and below what we should probably expect from the benefit of lower whey prices alone.

This minor upgrade is nowhere near enough to bring the company to profitability based on current forecasts.

Mark’s view

I can only assume most investors have forgotten how to scroll and only read the headline, which seems to bear little resemblance to the actual figures released, as the share price is up 17% today.

This still seems a remarkable market cap for a company that has never made an accounting profit, never paid a dividend and has £0.5bn of debt (including leases).

Graham upgraded this to AMBER/RED last August, expecting the sale of Claremont Ingredients to rebuild the balance sheet. Since it doesn't appear to have done that, I'm taking this back down to RED.

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Graham's Section

Jupiter Fund Management (LON:JUP)

Up 1% at 174.8p (£896m) - Trading Update and Notice of Results - Graham - GREEN

It's been a little while since we've checked in here. In April I was positive at a share price of 156.8p. Indeed, I've been fully positive on this once for a year.

Today we have news of positive flows: £0.7 billion in Q3, bringing year-to-date flows to £1.4 billion.

The sequence of flows year-to-date is therefore like this:

• Q1: positive £1.5 billion

• Q2: negative £0.8 billion

• Q3: positive £0.7 billion.

In 2025, net flows were positive £1.3 billion - the first year of

positive flows since 2017!

So we look to be edging closer to the second consecutive year of positive flows. A fine achievement for a business the market had been pricing for extinction. The share price has more than double since early 2025.

Q3 would have been even stronger if not for the acquired business, CCLA, which saw outflows:

With the help of positive market returns, AUM increased by 3% in the quarter.

Excluding CCLA, I calculate that AUM has increased by 14% in 2026 year-to-date, or in total by 36% since early 2025 (from £45.3 billion to £61.7 billion).

That enormous increase in AUM has been driven mostly by market returns, but flows have also made a meaningful contribution (£3.9 billion).

It's a very favourable scenario for a fund manager: positive net new business, combined with strongly rising markets. Jupiter shareholders had to wait a long time to experience that - I don't recommend looking at the 10 year chart!

Including CCLA, headline AUM has now surged to a level that is 67% higher than what Jupiter was managing in early 2025.

We get an update on how CCLA is doing:

Following a period of weaker investment performance, the CCLA investment team has continued to make changes to the investment process and strengthen collaboration across the wider Group. We are now seeing early signs of improvement, with a number of CCLA funds outperforming relevant comparators over shorter periods.

CCLA historically catered for churches, charities and local authorities. I wouldn't expect much growth or high margins at this division, but this was reflected in the cheap price paid by Jupiter (£100m).

Graham's view

This is a Super Stock with a StockRank of 97:

After another quarter of positive flows, I'm inclined to stay positive here. The shares are still not particularly expensive at 11x earnings, with a yield of 4.6%.

In AUM terms, each £1 invested in Jupiter shares at the current price buys you nearly £85 of AUM. That's not as depressed as we can find elsewhere in the fund management sector right now, but it's not bad. According to my sums, it's actually better value than what Jupiter shares offered at the start of this year: £80 of AUM per £1 of market cap, including the £15 billion that was bought in from CCLA.

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XPS Pensions (LON:XPS)

Up 7% at 331p (£690m) - Post-close Trading Update - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =

This pensions consultancy/administration business has enjoyed a remarkable few years of growth:

FY March 2027 is shaping up to be another good year: today's update says that they are "confident of achieving full year results slightly ahead of its expectations".

Key points:

• Total H1 revenues +12% (11% organic)

• Advisory revenues +14% (12% organic)

• Administration revenues +10%

• Self-invested pensions (SIP) +7% (XPS is a SIPP/SSAS pension provider, trustee, and administrator.)

Changes to the pension landscape provide fertile environment in which it can sell its advice and services: "We have seen strong demand arising from ongoing regulatory change, including from pension schemes seeking advice about running-on for surplus extraction."

You've probably noticed that many pension schemes we've covered in this report have recovered from deficit into surplus. When a defined benefit pension fund reaches such a healthy state, the employer will very often sell the whole thing to an insurance company.

However, where there is a large surplus, there is also the choice to run it on. The Pension Schemes Act 2026 "allows, with strict safeguards, for surplus to be shared between sponsoring employers and members".

In other words it should soon be possible, subject to many conditions and safeguards, for employers to share in the surplus value that their pension funds have created. This additional value is no longer "trapped".

Figuring out how to execute this means a new source of work for the likes of XPS:

Pensions Act 2025 received Royal Assent in April 2026, and DB surplus release is set to begin from 6 April 2027. This is expected to increase demand for advice as well-funded defined benefit schemes consider whether to run on for surplus or pursue an insurer buyout. XPS is well placed to support either route by providing expert consultancy every step along the way, following the members and providing award-winning pensions administration services either directly or on behalf of insurers.

And a comment from the CEO of XPS:

"The pensions industry continues to be very busy, and our clients have a wide range of opportunities in front of them, particularly with the new surplus release regulations coming in April next year. We are really well placed to help them whether running on is on their agenda, or if they want to access one of the many options emerging in the risk transfer market.

Graham's view

We've been AMBER/GREEN on this and I'm content to leave that unchanged today.

It continues to surprise me how much work is being generated by defined benefit schemes.

One risk that I do wonder about is what will happen when the complex questions about what to do with these DB pension schemes have finally been answered. XPS will always be challenged to evolve with the changing pension landscape, and it strikes me that simpler DC pensions may (in general) not require such complex consultancy as DB pensions.

In the short-term and medium-term, however, XPS is an example of a very successful financial consultancy and administration outfit, and there is every chance that it will continue to find new ways to serve its customers, e.g. by focusing more on insurance. At this moderate valuation, let's keep our moderately positive view.

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Dunelm (LON:DNLM)

Up 9% at 873p (£1.76bn) - First Quarter Trading Statement - Graham - AMBER =

Dunelm Group plc (“Dunelm” or “the Group”), the UK’s leading homewares retailer, updates on trading for the 13-week period ended 26 September 2026.

The market really liked this update, even if "store-enabled LFL sales" were negative:

Selected highlights:

• Q1 sales up 1.1% "with stronger trading in the second half of the quarter, following a soft start impacted by hot weather" (Q1 is roughly July, August and September).

• Gross margin up 10 basis points year-on-year, helped by FX rates.

• Expectations for FY27 adjusted PBT unchanged and broadly in line with FY26

The market was (rightly) sceptical going into this update, meaning that the stock could rally on unchanged, flat expectations!

And last night's valuation was indeed fairly modest:

Markets can also be very sensitive to the second derivative of growth, i.e. the direction of travel of growth. Dunelm tells us that sales were down 3% in the first half of the quarter, but then were up 4% in the second half. That ought to bode well for Q2.

Retail conditions do remain tough:

Despite the challenging trading backdrop, we believe we continued to outperform an overall soft market.

Strategy: nothing unusual here. Two store openings are imminent, to accompany five renovations. Anything more ambitious than that would be a red flag, given the soft trading conditions.

Outlook:

Whilst the consumer backdrop remains uncertain, we are encouraged by the improvement in trading through the latter part of the quarter as we enter our peak trading period...

At this early stage in the year, our expectations for FY27 adjusted PBT remain unchanged and broadly in line with FY26. As our plans gather momentum, and with benefits weighted towards the second half of the year, we currently expect adjusted PBT to be lower than the prior year for the first half.

Let's add some context. Adjusted PBT was £114m in H1 last year, and £211m for the full-year (FY June 2026). Peak trading is in Q2.

Graham's view

Roland was neutral on this last month and I'm going to leave that unchanged today.

The stock has suffered from a series of profit warnings, with the most recent one being in September:

Normally I try to take a positive stance on a stock when it looks like forecasts have stabilised.

However, in the case of Dunelm, the last profit warning was still very recent - only last month. FY27 earnings were supposed to be higher than FY26, prior to that update, and the guidance now is that that they will be "broadly in line".

Perhaps in a less economically sensitive sector, I could take a sunnier outlook. But I tend to think that investors need to be extremely selective when it comes to retailers. And so I'd rather wait until firmer evidence that earnings have bottomed out, before upgrading our stance here.