Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 22nd Oct 2026) - BMY, ARBB, CAM, REC, ESNT
No major financial news overnight, so I thought I’d mention something less serious: the news that AirBnB won’t let hosts require their guests to clean their properties any more.
I’ve never had a really bad AirBnB experience, but it’s also been a few years since the last time I used one.
I think my issue with the platform is that you end up spending hotel-like prices, but then you don’t get an experience that matches up with hotel expectations. I’d rather stay in an average hotel.
So I’m pleased to see that the platform is now requiring hosts to treat its guests more like the paying customers they are: from next month they can no longer tell guests to wash and put away dishes, strip beds and do laundry, or carry garbage to outside bins.
The funny thing is that in most cases, customers have already paid something called a “cleaning fee”! Why did hotels never think of that?
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is down 0.4% at 10,700
S&P 500 is down 0.8% at 7,700
Brent crude (December) is up 2.5% at $110.50/bbl
Gold is down 1.2% at $4,090oz
Bitcoin is down 2.2% at $82,700
Mark Simpson and Dr. James Fox are writing the company analysis today.
The Agenda is complete. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.
Companies Reporting
Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
AstraZeneca (LON:AZN) (£196bn | SR55) | Ultomiris has been approved in the US to reduce proteinuria in adults with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) at risk for disease progression. | ||
Barclays (LON:BARC) (£55.9bn | SR65) | Return on tangible equity of 11.7%, on track to deliver 2026 and 2028 targets. Q326 EPS of 12.3p, up 18% year-on-year and 43.0p year-to-date, up 23% year-on-year. | ||
Relx (LON:REL) (£51.8bn | SR58) | Underlying revenue growth year-to-date 7%. “Expect another year of strong underlying growth in revenue and adjusted operating profit, as well as strong growth in adjusted earnings per share on a constant currency basis.” | ||
London Stock Exchange (LON:LSEG) (£42.3bn | SR43) | Q3 total income +8.8%. Raising revenue, margin and cash flow guidance: expecting full year growth of at least 8.0%, EBITDA margin expansion of 100-120bps, and equity free cash flow of at least £2.8 billion. Acquiring Octus (provider of credit solutions) for $3.535 billion. | ||
Intercontinental Hotels (LON:IHG) (£18.7bn | SR60) | YTD global RevPAR +4.6%. Confident of achieving consensus expectations for the year. | ||
Pearson (LON:PSON) (£8.19bn | SR73) | On track to deliver 2026 guidance of mid-single digit underlying revenue growth with a narrowed adjusted operating profit range of £650m-£675m (previously £640m-£685m). | ||
J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) (£7.97bn | SR48) | Argos sale to complete by end of Feb 2027. Previous profit guidance would be equivalent to a range of £965 million to £1,065 million on a continuing operations basis. SBRY raises the lower end of this range: new range is between £1,025 million and £1,065 million. | ||
Rentokil Initial (LON:RTO) (£7.95bn | SR47) | Organic Revenue growth of 3.4%. Expect to deliver FY 2026 profit in line with current market expectations. CFO to retire from full-time role from Jan 2027 for family health reasons. | ||
Renishaw (LON:RSW) (£3.89bn | SR75) | Q1 revenue 47% higher than a weak comparator in the prior year. 3% higher than Q4 2026. “We continue to expect strong progress on revenue and operating margin for FY2027 as a whole.” | ||
Inchcape (LON:INCH) (£2.32bn | SR60) | Q3 volumes up 3%. Organic revenue growth 1%. Expecting FY 2026 adjusted EPS growth of c.10% despite lower operating margins. Organic volume growth expectation unchanged. Adjusted operating margin 5.5% due to underperformance in Australia. | ||
AJ Bell (LON:AJB) (£2.3bn | SR84) | Customers +24% to 796k, AUA +225 to £126bn. “Our long-term growth opportunity remains significant, with the structural drivers supporting the platform market firmly in place. We look forward to announcing our annual results in December for what has been another successful year.” | ||
Harbourvest Global Private Equity (LON:HVPE) (£2.29bn | SR67) | Results for the Six Months Ended 31 July 2026 & Launch of Tender Offer | NAV ps +2.4% to $60.82. Net portfolio cash flow of $234m including secondary sale proceeds. Net debt down $107m to $340m. Tender offer for $400m, at NAV. | |
Rathbones (LON:RAT) (£1.73bn | SR37) | FuMA +7.2% YoY to £121.1bn and nine-month operating income +6.7% YoY £731.1m. Continue to expect to meet underlying operating margin target of 28.7% in Q4. | ||
IP (LON:IPO) (£620m | SR81) | Revenue and adjusted EBITDA performance in FY26 is expected to be slightly ahead of current market expectations ($249.9m revenue, $86.3m Adj. EBITDA.) | ||
Auction Technology (LON:ATG) (£588m | SR52) | Revenue and adjusted EBITDA performance in FY26 is expected to be slightly ahead of current market expectations ($249.9m revenue, $86.3m Adj. EBITDA.) | ||
Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) (£548m | SR81) | H1 Revenue -5% to £151.6m, Adj PBT -30% to £16.8m. Net cash £22.8m (26H1: £2.4m). Confidence in delivering record results in line with Adjusted Profit expectations. (£354.3m revenue, £49.9m Adj. Profit). | AMBER/GREEN ↓ (Mark) | |
Essentra (LON:ESNT) (£320m | SR62) | Q3 Revenue +14.6% CCY. FY26 adjusted operating profit expected towards the upper end of market expectations. (Consensus Range: £32.3m to £34.3m.) | AMBER = (Mark) | |
Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB) (£268m | SR84) | Q3 Loan Book +1.4% to £3.5bn. Customer deposits remained broadly stable. Credit performance has remained robust. “While softer market conditions in asset-based lending have impacted fee income in Business Finance, we remain on track to deliver consensus FY 2026 profit before tax expectations, supported by growth across the broader business.” | ||
Cab Payments Holdings (LON:CABP) (£211m | SR43) | 9m total income +22% to £102m. The Group looks forward to completing a successful year notwithstanding a particularly strong comparator in the fourth quarter last year. | ||
Synthomer (LON:SYNT) (£186m | SR90) | Q3 performance in line with previously upgraded expectations for the full year. | ||
Camellia (LON:CAM) (£145m | SR75) | Trading result for 2026 is expected to be weaker than previously anticipated. Forecasts full-year revenue to be £255-£26m, compared with £268m in 2025. The reduction principally reflects the sale of some Indian tea gardens and lower macadamia and avocado sales. The current forecast is for a full-year trading loss of between £3-5m compared with a trading profit of £1.0m in 2025. | AMBER ↓ (Mark) | |
Arbuthnot Banking (LON:ARBB) (£131m | SR74) | Customer loans and leased assets +12% to £2.5bn. FuMA +21% to £3.1bn. Customer deposits +10% to £4.9bn. | GREEN ↑ (James) The shares trade at less than half of book value and yield about 7%, before brokers update their forecasts for today’s upgrade. | |
Arrow Exploration (LON:AXL) (£111m | SR88) | Current total corporate production is over 6,500 boe/d, including production from Icaco 8 (IC-8) and Icaco 7 (IC-7). 1 Oct estimated cash balance is over US$28 million | ||
Record (LON:REC) (£86.6m | SR83) | AUM +7% in Q2 to $130.3bn, incl. $10.4bn net flows. Performance across the Group remains in line with expectations for the full year. | AMBER ↑ (Mark) | |
KRM22 (LON:KRM) (£20.5m | SR19) | Two new 3-yr customer contracts for the Risk Manager application worth $1.3m total. Total ARR goes up to £8.5m. | ||
IXICO (LON:IXI) (£18.6m | SR25) | two contracts with a combined value of approximately £1.5 million. 1st is with a biotechnology company to manage and analyse neuroimaging for a Phase 2b clinical trial in AD. Revenue over 3 years. 2nd is a contract extension with an existing large international life sciences and diagnostics client. Revenue over 1 year. | ||
Kakuzi (LON:KAKU) (£18.1m | SR67) | Expects net earnings to be significantly below the previous year as a result of the continued downturn in the macadamia market and a lower macadamia crop.
| ||
Metals One (LON:MET1) (£16.3m | SR16) | Entered into a binding term sheet for the proposed acquisition of the remaining interests in LBR that Metals One does not already own. | ||
ARC Minerals (LON:ARCM) (£14.8m | SR27) | "We have moved to an important stage both in Botswana and Zambia. At the Virgo project, the ambitious drilling campaign has now started and is progressing well. In Zambia, we are moving the dual strategy at the Kabompo project to an advanced phase with a number of active discussions being pursued" |
Analyst notes
- Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)
Bloomsbury Publishing: first-half profit falls 30%, so it needs a big second half
With H1 revenue down 5% and PBT down 30% vs the previous year, they will need a big H2 to meet market expectations. There is a strong pipeline of books for H2 in their consumer division that provides some confidence that they can deliver the sales. However, they will also need near-record operating margins in both divisions to hit the PBT forecast, something that may be challenging if A&P revenues continue to decline, as expected. It is probably foolish to bet against a company that usually delivers. However, with the risk of a warning increasing today, and a fairly punchy forward multiple compared to growth rates, I think we should be a bit more cautious in our view.
- Arbuthnot Banking (LON:ARBB)
Arbuthnot Banking: specialist lending up 26% and profit ahead of expectations, and we turn positive
Strong growth in specialist lending and a newly profitable wealth arm are behind today’s upgrade, but rates are the bigger story. Falling rates hit Arbuthnot’s earnings hard, and with markets now pricing two rate hikes by the end of the year, that drag looks set to become a tailwind. The shares trade at less than half of book value and yield about 7%, before brokers update their forecasts for today’s upgrade.
- Camellia (LON:CAM)
Camellia: weaker trading points to a £3m–£5m loss for the year, and we turn more cautious
The company is now trading at net cash (including cash-like investments), which seems like incredible value. Until you realise the stated strategy is to invest that cash into further agricultural assets. These tend to be relatively low-return assets with high variability and unpredictability in trading outcomes, as today's shift to an overall trading loss for the year shows. The company has a poor track record of picking assets that buck this trend, so I think we should take a more cautious view.
- Record (LON:REC)
Record: £2.2m of performance fees and strong inflows lift our view after two profit warnings
Given two recent profit warnings, I am still wary that they aren't completely out of the woods. However, strong flows into their new Absolute Return Strategy this quarter, combined with a recent high in performance fees, suggest things are getting easier rather than harder. At an 11x forward multiple and with a decent yield (even if it is forecast to be a bit lower this year), I think we can afford to be a bit more generous.
I think there is an argument to be made that earnings here are on a recovery trajectory, driven by cost-cutting and delays in passing on inflationary cost rises to customers. However, I struggle to get behind a 16x forward earnings multiple, even if earnings are forecast to grow in future years, when these are heavily adjusted, and there is reasonable net debt to factor into any valuation. The middling Stock Rank confirms that we should probably stick with a neutral view.
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83 comments
Arbuthnot Banking (LON:ARBB) note not much of a rise today despite being ahead of expectations, are the budgetary potential tax on banks a potential headwind ?
No it's the spread?
Volex (LON:VLX) Theres a lesson here somewhere. RNS today states that the £20m buyback programme has just been completed at an average price of 543p which is a smidgeon below todays price - which has itself dropped in a matter of days from 700p. Can’t complain at that, but where next ?
Can you elaborate a little bonhenie please on your Volex (LON:VLX) lesson and what you mean by where next . I‘m a long term holder so would be very interested in your thoughts ?
I was pretty surprised at todays further near 6% fall . That totals about a 25% reduction in about a week. Is the business really worth only three quarters of what it was a week ago ?
The volatility has always put me off a bit. Ie I have now lost money on this one 3 or 4 times!
Try to judge the bottom
Hi Lochinver - I think snowdrop has touched on the situation. Briefly - there have been numerous buyback schemes recently. Personally, I hate them but number-crunchers insist they make sense. But thats provided you buy back the shares when they are at a low. There have too many examples of companies buying back their shares only to see them subsequently drop significantly. In this case, Volex have managed to buy back the shares at a bargain price. Next is another company renowned for the timing of their buy-backs.
Is the company only worth three quarters - well thats the Market reaction which frankly is increasingly unpredictable and its small time investors like us who suffer.
Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) I hold here and was a little disappointed in H1 numbers.. *however*.. it's worth investigating why H2 23/24 and H1 24/25 cumulatively generated c 30mm excess profit in the consumer division and that was of course the Sarah J Mass Crescent City release in Jan 2024.. of course she has two books from her more popular ACOTAR series coming in H2 this year which is probably why they're so confident.. it is no coincidence that they raised FY estimates on BD5 this year the morning after she revealed the release date of these books.. if both books combined generate the same bump in thie FY then they will still outperform current estimates.. the Harry Potter series too should provide a boost...
My feeling is that the potential sales boost from the 2 upcoming SJM books was already priced in after a very strong run this year. Bear in mind this will only be a one-off boost and sales are expected to normalise again next year. Great company, but slightly uncomfortable they are so reliant on one author and all the lumpiness in earnings this entails.
Hargreaves Services (LON:HSP)
https://www.stockopedia.com/a/share-prices/hargreaves-services-LON:HSP/news/01a1630e-28a2-7745-bc15-cafc8c7adcb1
Announce the award of a 15year contract for the UK Deposit Return Scheme.
Broker Cavendish ups FC EPS by 3.2% and 4.2% for 28 and 29 with a TP of 940p.
EDIT Stockopedia link not working properly!!
You have to add the link in the little box above the post-make sure you select some test to link from otherwise will create a hyperlink for whole post.
Thank you Charles, although I thought that was what I had done.
You have to click the Apply button- the error I initially was making.
I tried it again and obvs you are correct Charles. Thanks again.
If you recall - the Scottish Greens pushed for this not so long ago - at first it was hailed as a brilliant idea until the full details came out. When shopkeepers (esp small corner shops)realised that they would have to allocate space for and expense of running the scheme they made a noise - then the public realised that the bottles were not going to be re-filled but simply crushed as they have been for years and IrnBru among others said if the scheme goes ahead - we will stop supplies to Scotland. End of story.
James ref Arbuthnot Banking (LON:ARBB) thanks for the report and was interested until I noticed the directors are heavy buyers, normally a good sign, until I realised there's only a 15% free float. Have you ever tried to sell any and do you think it may be a problem?
Then read Yiannos write up on Earnz (LON:EARN) have owned both Mears (LON:MER) and sureserve, and impressed with Bob Holt, everyone needs a speculative play, so dipped in. Thanks for highlighting.
Rws which has been rising a lot recently suddenly declines almost 10 per cent.yet it gets no mention from you today in spite of having a 92 stockrank rating. Why is this ?
Ref RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) except for saying the price has dropped, with no news, what else can be reported.
Use your brain! There are 1,534 companies traded in the UK and without news, why should there be a comment on a company's individual share price?
In 2000-2001, without realising, and alerted by by my HSBC broker, I ended up just below the 3% threshold in Mears (LON:MER). Made very good money and moved on, although I wish I held the shares.
Bob Holt was the mastermind behind the early success of Mears (LON:MER) . At the time Mears (LON:MER) was a little known Gloucestershire contractor with just 83 employees and a £12 million turnover. Holt's leadership, following the public listing in 1996, transformed the business into a major social housing repairs, maintenance, and homecare provider, eventually growing it into a £900 million turnover group!
Holt has also been involved along Peter Smith in SURESERVE plc, where their leadership was marked by record financial metrics and a major corporate exit, taken public at a market cap of £214M.
Bob Holt and Peter Smith are now both involved in Earnz (LON:EARN) with Elizabeth Lake as the CFO. Same industry, same strategy!
I hold Earnz (LON:EARN) shares around current market prices. Projected revenue for 2027 is £57m and around £70m for 2028. Should be an easy multibagger in 12-18 months.
Recent IMC meeting is interesting to watch and learn more about Earnz (LON:EARN) .
All the best
PS. Apologise for going off topic, but not an expert in emptying bins and cleaning AirBnb rooms-:)
Yiannos slightly random one but can i ask if you have had a look at Hardide recently Hardide (LON:HDD) ?- i was very impressed with trading update yesterday - its always hard to know how long sweet spots will last but they certainly seem to be delivering good numbers at present (albeit we have only had ye trading update and not the final accounts yet that will be then proof of then pudding)
also were you recently positive on Somero or did i make that up?
Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM) yes at 245p-Posted at the time here.
Hardide (LON:HDD) not getting involved in something that has already gone up 1000%, and obviously on what you are saying about actually proof and able to dig into their accounts.
All the best
Hardide (LON:HDD) not getting involved in something that has already gone up 1000%, and obviously on what you are saying about actually proof and able to dig into their accounts.
thanks for that - i think the rise to date is simply reflective of that fact prior to the year just finished it hadnt made a bean of profits for 5 years so was treated as a complete basket case by then market (probbaly rightly so at the time)
For year just finished they should be delivering £4.6 mill of bottom line profit and for year just started they should be delivering £6.6 mil of bottom line profit and they seem uber confident ref the future as they are ramping up capacity materially - factoring in that growth trend i dont think a p/e of under 15 for the current year seems expensive despite the great rise up to now - imho thats just reflective of it no longer being a complere failure. anyway as you say the year end accounts will have the detail to confirm of deny if its all uber clean ref profits not being pimped up.
Not for me, thanks
All the best
I hold Hardide (LON:HDD) bought at 0.44
Do an ai analysis on why the need for their cvd coating process is rapidly expanding. Space, defence, energy, semi conductor and chrome replacement are all areas where the time is now right for Hardide despite the fact they've been around for years without much success.
It is true the share price has grown a lot already but their forward pe is nowhere near Filtronic (LON:FTC) and look how that's gone.
One heck of a quarterly update fromTufton Assets (LON:SHIP) this morning. NAV up 5%, confirmation of the 10% increase in the quarterly dividend, cover of 2.2x plus a positive outlook. Oh, and a chart to die for. What’s not to like?
This has come up on my quality garp screen last week I've never heard of it before but as you say brilliant chart, noticed also its priced in dollars.
If you prefer it in GBP, then SHPP is the same stock. Currently 109 - 111. I’m comfortable with the USD exposure and the dividends are priced in USD
Thanks Lord I'm on holiday next week so will put some time aside to have a look at it.
tried to buy this today but IG gives me a "SORRY No quotes available at present" (even for 1 share) which I've never seen before. Limit order wasn't filled either even though it was above the asking price. Notice several £100k has been traded today though.
No problem buying Tufton Assets (LON:SHIP) now on IG.
the dealing issues have given me pause, don't want to be in that position when trying to sell later. Think I'll look elsewhere.
This happens quite a lot on IG.
I think that might be an issue for IG. I rarely have any problems with ii. Best in the business.
No problems with ii immediate quote at 147.4 cents to buy.
Bioventix (LON:BVXP) Following on yesterday's comments - the uplift continues - up again today. Seems someone knows something ahead of next weeks results ?
AirBnB Graham, could you advise me where I can book a hotel in the Dordogne Region in a beautiful village such as Bourdeilles with a property that is on the banks of the Dronne, has beautifully appointed lounge, bedrooms and bathroom, sleeps 4, with canoe and fishing, and two terraces for relaxing in the sunshine for the high season rate of €150 per night? Oh, and by the way, will the cleaner also make sure that it is spotless for the next guests regardless of the state it is left in? I don’t think it was in any way an unreasonable request to tidy up and leave a property in a reasonable state upon departure. Pricing has to be adjusted accordingly for the standard of service and if guests don’t want to do it there will be plenty of takers prepared to pay.
Relx (LON:REL) I hold
In case anyone is interested in talking about stocks, it would be good to have some coverage of todays 3rd quarter trading update which concludes
"Full year outlook
Fears that AI would eat their lunch, the shares have struggled to make headway this year and are down about 14%. I thought these fears were overblown and bought more. What do the community and the team think?
Relx (LON:REL) I hold. The results look excellent. The open questions for me are
(1) how exactly does Relx protect their database against scraping?
(2) Will Open Access erode future earnings at Elsevier?
The summary of the IP (LON:IPO) RNS is incorrect.
I apologise for going off topic and talking about stocks :-))
Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM) I hold these and although I was not surprised by the steady rise, 15%, after interims released on 8/9/26, the 15% rise in the last week has surprised me, I am wondering if there is a trade buyer building a position here or whether this mirrors Mobico (LON:MCG) 20% move up in a few days before an obviously leaked bid is anounced. Does anyone have any views?
TIA
Off topic indeed!!!!
All the best
Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM)
I am wondering if there is a trade buyer building a position here
perhaps thats the Yiannos effect?.
I would agree somero is trading on a lofty pe compared to where it normally trades - their buisness has always been cyclicial though - like builders in the old days often they are best value when they look most expensive - so if they can have a purple patch over the next 12-24 months without any signs of that running dry , well the bar is still set reasonably low right now compared to their prior historical earnings. So i think the market just expects its more likley then next update wil be good rather than bad or nuetral. i think most stale sellers that wanted an exit probbaly have left the building.
Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM) Is it just the need for absolutely level floors in data centres ? Maybe.
perhaps thats the Yiannos effect?. What have I missed?
Somero Enterprises (LON:SOM) Is it just the need for absolutely level floors in data centres ? Maybe.
agreed the need for data centres has to be positive - and i kindfa thgink that there is probbaly still the need for large warehouse space anyway - i think that may have dipped from prior spikes though. so thats te slight worry if everyone wants to do stuff at the same time does that generate a mini boom that wil susbside - its clear data centres are all the rage and it sems likely that investment might not carry on at such high levels - medium term though ai aint going away and then need for data centres will still be on the up - its just whether there is a mini bubbble.
This share has served me ok as i bought in years ago at about 200p and i have had some very decent divis - i did actually sell out at like 470p temporarily but they had an ahead of trading update i think the day after i sold the shares and before i has spent the money i could but back in at 450p with improved outlook - with the benefit of hindsight i shouldnt have bought back in despite the otlook being fine and dandy then. Its always easy with hindsight though as to what the correct decision should have been.
Interesting re Airbnb - they have already moved their internal costs which were paid by customers into external pricing - so it is now deducted from room price - which I think puts a little downward pressure on price to drive bookings. This is a similar move and to me - suggests occupancy is disappointing and already weak..... which suggests weakness in the economy is raising its head. I run an Airbnb and occupancy is behind last year which can be for a variety of reasons but has never caught up the post covid boom .... which was artificially high IMO..... Airbnb as a business want to push weakness on to hosts which may or may not be successful depending on how much slack there is in the system. Never-the-less its a sign of weakness out there not being captured in unemployment nor inflation data yet.
VRBO who we use as an owner has just increased the commission by 4.5% (a 30% increase approx I believe) on the grounds of making all thier (Experian) platforms consistent, do I really believe this NOPE. They already charge a huge amount the owners do all the work but we have no choice but to use them
Just adding a note here to emphasise that I'm leaving the company analysis today in the capable hands of Mark Simpson and James Fox. Cheers!
The other big news overnight is regarding the cyber security threat identified by a firm using AI.
Without meaning to sound too mercenary, I was wondering if anyone thinks any UK listed cyber security firm looks particularly attractive right now? I can of course just ask AI, but thought I'd fish in the community's expertise!
I own Shearwater (LON:SWG) which even after the strong recent rise still looks attractively priced and is due to report next Tuesday.
Shearwater (LON:SWG)
Should be trading at much higher prices.
I do not hold.
All the best
Shearwater (LON:SWG)
they should 100% be in the sweetest of sweet spots right now (they have probably been a sweet spot though for the last couple of years plus) - pretty sad that depsite over a decade of doing what they do and beating expectations that only resulted in £500k uptick in cash last year. They are making the right noises here though but with them i would only want to look at what they actually deliver as they are great as promises - valuation now somewhat reflects their piss poor history of losing millions of shareholders money whilst drawing £1 mill plus salary for directors. contract updates give fans hope though and i would say valuation is low so upside potential is good here if they get it right.
There's the behemoth cyber security consultants NCC (LON:NCC) .... but I don't think they look attractive in terms of share price.
The cyber security play on AI is already well known, don't think you'll find any hidden gem shares with a good cyber security offering that hasn't already seen their SP go up.
I have latched on to CNS – Corero Network Security recently. Director buying and decent institutional holdings make me think their focus is right on point; Its technology protects against external and internal DDoS threats in complex edge and subscriber environments and ensures Internet service availability.
What hacking method will AI agents use? DDOS?
Graham, can you please have a look at Essentra (LON:ESNT) as I believe the turnaround is in full swing here and significant upside to be realized. I hold.
Graham - for someone who has a family holiday home which we run also as an Airbnb to cover costs, I’d suggest you might be missing the target here. As I’m sure you will appreciate, running a single property as an Airbnb does not have the economies of scale of a hotel and the clean / turnaround costs can be a significant expense, when you take into account laundry, rubbish removal and the cost of having a reliable turnaround company to manage everything. We always ask guests to load the dishwasher and leave rubbish in a spot so it’s easy for our cleaners to do their job. I’m really not sure why that’s too much of an ask. If guests start leaving dirty dishes and plates all over the place it becomes a nightmare for the cleaner and ultimately mean we have to pay the cleaners extra time, the cost of which will ultimately end up being passed onto the guest.
Don’t forget these are people’s homes Graham, and all we ask as a host is that people treat it with respect and leaves things relatively tidy when they leave.
I appreciate your daily macro comments, but I’m not sure this sort of commentary is particularly relevant or helpful
why should guest pay your cleaners fee?
They don’t in our case as we just charge an all inclusive price, but ultimately the turnaround costs form part of the fee. Some hosts decide to charge a lower nightly rate and then and additional fee to cover the clean.
You do realise that your hotel cost includes paying towards the cleaners? The amount is just hidden within the amount you are charged.
You do realise that wherever you stay, hotel or Airbnb, you are paying for the cost to clean right? Unfortunately we haven’t managed to locate the cleaning fairy yet!
Harves Most air bb are not people's homes but investments. But I agree its not the right forum.
The advantage of having a separate cleaning fee is it can be used as a pricing barrier to reflect the cost of the preparation and admin a change necessitates. Without it single units could be unprofitable for one and two night stays, making hosts busy fools.
Airbnb (NSQ:ABNB)
I'm not really a fan of talking about anything other than stocks on this platform, but as Airbnb is a grey area I'll briefly mention 2 things:
Hotels are also most likely using a service like Elis SA (EPA:ELIS) who are able to take advantage of the huge volumes being cleaned every day.
Unless I've misunderstood I believe you were talking about Airbnb's fees now being wholly included within the Hosts room price instead of being split between Host and Guests.
I don't think this matters to Airbnb - they're getting their 15% either way.
But I do believe from a business perspective that this is a good thing - prices will be much more transparent, especially for hosts who are, as previously mentioned, competing with hotels and primarily only see the fee that they are charging, not what the end guest is actually paying.
Couldn't agree more but unfortunately these days respect is in short reply.
Well said and I totally agree, the thought of guests scarpering from my Gite in France leaving dirty dishes, pots and pans, bins full of rubbish, toilet bins full of soiled tissue etc horrifies me. It is entirely reasonable to request these tasks are done and the property left in good order, its our home. Also remember it takes me around 5hrs already to totally clean a 3 bed house after 1 week, make the beds etc and make sure its as good as it can be.
Gite owner
The rule of thumb should always be 'leave it as you find it'. This means that if the cleaners have done their job they won't have much to do next time.
If you rent it out, everyone, in general, will regard it as a business. No one cares what you think - they compare it to other businesses and see what they can get. It's not personal, it really is just business.
Swings and roundabouts I guess. I'd always leave any holiday accommodation as I found it taking out the rubbish and putting the dishwasher on and emptying it before I left. Two weeks ago I paid £170 per night to stay in an Airbnb in Norfolk which wasn't that clean, everywhere needing painting, stains on all the settee's, absolutely filthy windows which rather made me not wish to check the condition of the mattress! And a professional cleaning company were waiting outside when we left. They complimented us on how tidy we'd left the property!
Surprises me people even complain in the first place about having to tidy up before check out. We regularly use AirBNB and wouldn't occur to us not to clean up before leaving the property.
IG group (LON:IGG) have released an update today ahead of their ‘Strategic Review’ meeting at UBS in London this afternoon. Hopefully they can reassure the market after their recent steep share price decline. I unfortunately hold
The more granular detail on revenue was not (for me) encouraging. Both Freetrade and TastyTrade disappointed me.
A bigger question for me however is how/why are the sellers of underdog going to accept several hundreds of millions less for their company now that the 24.1m IGG shares are worth a whole lot less. Or are IGG, god forbid, going to increase the number of shares to be issued and paid over?
IG group (LON:IGG)
Or are IGG, god forbid, going to increase the number of shares to be issued and paid over?
i dont know for certain but others have stated that its a fixed number of shares end of - if those assertions are true then its plain fact that "thats the deal they took"
rememer there was cash upfront and their is potentially some very generous backend extras here.
If anyone has any clarification if they can adcvise cheers.
IG group (LON:IGG)
Hi Richard
The company has confirmed that the 24.1m IGG shares is fixed - there's a presentation deck from a few weeks ago that I believe also mentions this in case you want to check it out.
The cash outlay, if the transaction went through today, is just over £300m, which for context is less than 1 year of profit for the company.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the dynamics of the prediction market industry in the middle of 2027, so there's also window to recoup a material amount of this original outlay before any decision is made.
The share dilution isn't great, but if Underdog does turn out to be successful then it could look like a bargain in hindsight.
I wasn't against either the TastyTrade or Freetrade acquisitions and I believe the former has turned out quite well, albeit helped by rising interest rates. So I'll give the company the benefit of the doubt for now and hope that over the long term this will continue to be a good share to hold.
IG group (LON:IGG)
thanks abtan - do you have any thoughts ref the latest update - q3 seemed particualrly poor and it did not seem well communciated as to the reasons why specifically , if thats just temporary bad luck ref hedging volumes etc thats fine - or may be some sign that core profits arent likely to hold up too well - imho core profits are still key and then communciation didnt seem great ref last update - i havent looked at the presentation yet though if thats up and out in the open.
IG group (LON:IGG)
I don't really have anything useful to add on the Q3 update that wasn't already said on the day in the DSMR I'm afraid.
There have been many material falls in the IGG share price over the space of 1 year (see screenshot below, from 2022-2023 which took me about 5 seconds to find), but over the long term i.e. more than 5 years, it's been a wonderful hold with an IRR (for me) of >15%.
So for now I'll keep holding and only look to sell if I see anything worrying in the core numbers as they are released.
IG group (LON:IGG) duplicate post
IG group (LON:IGG) Thanks Abtan, and I have taken a look at the presentation now (I tried before but was not up to the software).
I must admit I find it hard to understand why the sellers are staying with the deal (unless they signed watertight undertakings and its not a corporate that IGG are buying), but the optimist would say that they believe the share price dive is temporary ... lets hope so, and that they are right.
I too believe that TT has turned out quite well (FT too early to say) but if you look at their Q3 numbers, they are not good.
Thanks again.
IG group (LON:IGG)
its very messy here - if its a fact that the latest trading update fell only due to unlucky hedging stuff (lack of) that could go either way well i would not actually take that as a huge negative. It was obviously a huge negative for that period - but its probbaly as likely to go the other way - so that short term unluckiness should unwind. its messy ass IGG have kinda avoided these sharp swings - take a look at older stuff from plus markets i think and that will confirm the luck can be good or bad.
the messy bit is that the wording used in the update made no sense to me - so i had to rely on Grahams most excellent summary of what they were trying to say.
unhelpfully on stocky i dont have next years numebrs up yet - so i cant see if next years earnings took a chop after the recent update - that would be key question here to see if they are on track - thats if they even have forecasts ?
as you say hopefolly its mostly business as usual - not sure if this event will simply reguritate info already in the public domain.
If one does want to worry there are two worries
(1) are customers leaving - i have heard a few comments that the platform updates are not going down well - its not great if you cant keep punters happy ref platform - times do change though and the good old days dont always last particualrly if IGG arent making a margin off you (you just have to look at what bookies do to customers who dont lose sufficient margin)
(2) has there been some sort of fundamental shift ref their ability to churn out core profits - not sure what this would be but if you are making great easy margins of punters could someone out compete on costs - or from regulatory perspective can they be blocked from making easy money of their customers. its always game of cat and mouse when you have spreads and are holding onto soemones elses assets that you can pimp out for your benefit.
IG group (LON:IGG) has been a very dependable core business over the years - i sole previously when they had short term weakness and guided on lower expected profits - those lower profits never came as they did fine and dandy despite guiding lower. this kinda evidences that with not brilliant transparency if they are simply being conservative and dont know well that may may them look shit when they arent reallky shit.
Must admit i was very unimpressed with the communication in thne latest trading update - being frank it was gibbersh nonsense that 95% of people cannot make sense of - poor form. stuff like that makes me worry if the current people in charge have lost common sense and gone on some sort of global domination game - that doesnt always end well perhaps one could go as far as saying rarely when uk trys to make it big in USA.
Note i only bought in recently after large drop before recent trading update drop - so ref latest acquisition that was already kinda w/off due to price drop after that acquisition news. the previous us acquisition did ok so i am slightly surprised that holders didnt pay heed and exit stage at then peak the groundwork for the second acquisition was already set.
Certainly plenty of mixed messages here and some red flags - i havent sold out though
Like you I bought (back in) after the drop on the acquisition news. The trading update was a bit of a downer but, like you, I won´t be surprised if retained revenue picks up again rapidly, although no comment on that in todays release.
Good morning rmillaree, found your post interesting and agreed with most of it, but had to laugh at "hopefolly" a bit of bad spelling which joined two words into one perfectly describing a shareholding mistake that I, and I'm sure many others, often make.
Good morning Graham, if time permits, please could you look at Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) interims today?
Yes - will be interesting to see how the Mkt reacts - actuals are down but theres plenty of jam tomorrow - lots of it!
I find this statement somewhat confusing:
"Confidence in delivering record results in line with Adjusted Profit expectations."
Get excited but don't get too excited.
Seems the market does not like the figures share currently off nearly 9% ( I hold as well for ' jam tomorrow' )