Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 20th Oct 2026) - CRPR, WIX, G4M, SBRE, BPM

Budget speculation is now in full swing ahead of next Wednesday, 28th October.

According to the BBC, citing Treasury sources, Chancellor John Healey is refusing to entertain CGT increases.

Some of the items that I’ll be looking out for in the Budget include:

• Increased taxes on the gambling sector

• Your First Home and its positive impact on the housebuilders

• Changes to taxes on ecommerce (The Times reported last week that “Amazon, eBay and Temu will be forced to collect VAT to fund business rate cuts for high street shops”)

Overnight market movements:

• The FTSE is down 0.6% at 10,705

• S&P 500 is unchanged at 7,690

• Brent crude (December) is up 1.4% at $110.95/bbl

• Gold is down 0.5% at $4,120oz

• Bitcoin is down 0.4% at $81,600

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Ed Sheldon joins me today.
The Agenda is complete. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

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Companies Reporting

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Edward's Section

James Cropper (LON:CRPR)

Up 6% at 740p (£67m) - Trading Update - Ed S - AMBER/GREEN =

Advanced Materials and Paper & Packaging specialist James Cropper has today provided us with a trading update for the six months ended 26 September 2026 (H1 FY27). Here’s what it has told us:

• The group delivered a strong performance during H1 FY27, with trading ahead of the Board's expectations, principally reflecting a much stronger than anticipated performance by the group’s Paper & Packaging business from a combination of revenue growth and cost management.

• As a result of the performance delivered in the first half, together with the Board's current assessment of the outlook for the remainder of the financial year ending 27 March 2027, the Board now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be approximately 10% to 20% ahead of current market expectations of £9.4 million.

• This gives a range of expected full-year adjusted EBITDA of approximately £10.3 million to £11.3 million.

“The progress reflects the benefits of the actions we have taken to improve operational performance alongside continued positive momentum across the group. As a result, our expectations for full-year adjusted EBITDA have increased by 10-20%.”

Ed’s view:

We’ve covered James Cropper here at Stockopedia a few times this year. In early January, Roland looked at it in a Stock Pitch (this is a useful report if you’d like to learn more about this niche business).

Then, in April, Roland covered a full-year trading update. At the time, he upgraded the stock to an AMBER/GREEN rating on the back of an improved balance sheet and earlier-than-expected recovery in profitability.

Since that upgrade, the stock has performed really well, rising from around 355p to 740p – a gain of more than 100%. Note that Stockopedia rates it as a ‘Super Stock’ and gives it a StockRank of a high 93.

Now, today’s update has resulted in a decent move higher (+6% as I write) and it’s easy to see why. In H1, trading during the period was ahead of the Board’s expectations thanks to a strong performance in Paper & Packaging driven by a combination of revenue growth and cost management (in September we heard that this division was seeing high demand from established customers augmented by new business wins, accelerating the momentum delivered in the second half of FY26).

As a result, the group is now expecting full-year adjusted EBITDA of approximately £10.3m to £11.3m (versus market expectations of £9.4m). For reference, adjusted EBITDA was £8.9m in FY26 and £6.7m in FY25, so we have a clear upward trend in profitability here.

Note that the midpoint of the guidance range (£10.8m) would represent year-on-year growth of 21%. The upper point of the guidance range would represent growth of 27%.

Given the increase in profitability, I think the risk/reward proposition here still looks relatively attractive, despite the big move higher in the share price this year. Going into today’s report, brokers were looking for 45.6p per share in earnings for FY27 versus 30.8p in FY26.

Assuming that the EPS forecast moves higher after today’s update, we are probably looking at a low-to-mid teens P/E ratio here. I see that as reasonable given the profit growth – the price-to-earnings-to-growth PEG) ratio is going to be well under one.

On the downside, revenue growth forecasts are a little underwhelming. For FY27, revenue is expected to be £102m, which would only represent growth of 2.7% year on year (in September the company told us that Advanced Materials revenue remains broadly in line with the same period in the prior year).

There’s also a little bit of debt on the balance sheet – at 28 March, net debt was £8.1m (down from £12.9m a year earlier). This should be manageable though (using the mid-point of today’s adjusted EBITDA guidance range of £10.8m we get a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of 0.75).

Overall, I’m positive on the outlook here. I’m going to leave the stock on AMBER/GREEN.

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Gear4music (HOLDINGS) (LON:G4M)

Down 5% at 220p (£49m) - Half Year Trading Update - Ed S - AMBER/GREEN ↓

Online music retailer Gear4music has today provided a half-year trading update for the six months to 30 September 2026.

Highlights:

• Total revenue of £85.4m, up 6% (in line with Board expectations against very strong prior-year comparatives)

• UK revenue of £51.0m, up 3%

• European and Rest of the World revenues of £34.4m, up 11%

• Gross margin expected to be 27.6% (FY26 H1: 28.0%; FY25 H1: 26.7%)

• Gross profit expected to be £23.6m (FY26 H1: £22.6m; FY25 H1: £16.5m)

• EBITDA expected to be £5.7m (FY26 H1: £6.5m; FY25 H1: £2.9m), reflecting the previously reported setup costs associated with the new automated UK warehouse

"We are pleased to report further revenue and gross profit growth in the first half, building on the significant progress achieved in FY26 and against very strong prior-year comparatives. Our performance reflects the strength of our customer proposition in a challenging environment for discretionary consumer spending.”

Operational update:

“We continue to invest in our e-commerce platform and operational capabilities to support sustainable, profitable growth over the medium and longer term. The development of our new automated UK warehouse continues to progress and is an important part of this investment, with the anticipated initial setup costs reflected in our first-half earnings.”

Outlook:

“We are well prepared for the important peak trading period. With this key part of the year still ahead, the Board continues to expect the Group's financial performance for the year ending 31 March 2027 to be in line with consensus market expectations."

* Gear4music provides these figures for consensus market expectations for the year ending 31 March 2027: revenue of £200.2 million, EBITDA of £16.0 million and profit before tax of £6.0 million.

Ed’s view:

The market doesn’t like today’s update. At one stage, the stock was down 8%.

It’s not a terrible update though. Top-line growth of 6% is respectable in this environment (a 'challenging environment for discretionary consumer spending') and the growth from Europe and Rest of the World is decent at 11%.

On the downside, we learn that EBITDA for the period is expected to be £5.7m versus £6.5m a year earlier. This reflects the previously reported setup costs associated with the new automated UK warehouse.

The company believes that this warehouse will help to support sustainable, profitable growth over the medium and longer term. However, investors are often turned off by investments to support growth.

Now, the valuation here is quite low at present (Stockopedia gives G4M a 94 for value). With analysts forecasting EPS of 21.1p for FY27 (versus 34.9p in FY26), we are looking at a P/E ratio of about 10.4.

However, analysts don’t expect much earnings growth in the medium term. For FY28, the EPS forecast is 21.3p.

Looking beyond the financials, the share price trend is beginning to look a little ugly. Right now, the stock is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (and we just had a bearish ‘death cross’ pattern where the 50-day crossed below the 200-day).

The StockRank is also falling. In early September it was 98 whereas today it’s 91.

One other potential negative worth highlighting is brand engagement. Today, Gear4music only has 118k subscribers to its YouTube channel versus 1.06m for Andertons.

They could definitely do more here. Because YouTube can be a great platform for exposure, brand engagement, and sales (I’ve personally bought several guitars from Andertons in recent years on the back of their fantastic YouTube videos).

Given the lack of earnings growth and the falling share price, I’m going to downgrade G4M to AMBER/GREEN today. It does look cheap, however, the momentum is weak.

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Graham's Section

Wickes (LON:WIX)

Up 4% at 224.2p (£510m) - Q3 Trading Update - Graham - AMBER/GREEN ↑

We don't cover this one very often; let's try to rectify that a little.

Today's update is confident: "On track to meet market forecasts for 2026 adjusted PBT"

This table provides a lot of detail: what I'm going to take away from it is that year-on-year revenue growth trends have been improving as the year progressed. 1.8% growth in Q1, 2.3% in Q2, and now 4.5% in Q3.

The "second derivative" is therefore positive: not only is the company is growing, but the growth rate itself is improving.

The other key takeaway for is that the "Retail" segment is doing much better than "Design and Installation Ranges". As we don't cover Wickes too often, let's get a precise definition of this:

Design & Installation Ranges revenue includes all product categories which could be sold as part of a design and/or installation and where the majority of sales of those products are designed and/or installed. This relates principally to projects such as kitchens and bathrooms, sold by our Design Consultants, as well as Wickes Solar.

Any other interesting snippets from today's update?

• Within Retail, TradePro sales were up 8%. TradePro membership also up 8%.

• Design & Installation: "our Bespoke Kitchen ranges are seeing customers being more considered for larger purchases".

• In 2026, Wickes will open 5 new stores (total estate is around 230)

Outlook:

Our value-led and differentiated business model leaves us well-positioned to continue outperforming the market. With our strong sales performance and with a good productivity plan in place, we are on track to meet consensus expectations which on average show a growth in adjusted PBT of c. 10% for 2026.

Graham's view

I have a generally positive impression of recent performance at Wickes. They say they are taking market share, which seems to ring true from the growth figures shown.

There is a little consumer hesitiation when it comes to larger projects, especially high-end kitchens ("Bespoke Kitchens"). This is not the company's fault - just a reminder of how economically sensitive the sector is.

Forecasts have held steady here for a while, with only a gentle downward slope in EPS forecasts seen earlier this year:

At at PE ratio of 10x, I was inclined to leave us neutral on this share.

However, I've just checked the full-year results for 2025 and this year's interims, and I see that the company's average net cash position last year was £153m.

In H1, the net cash position closed at around the same level. At a £500m market cap, this is a significant number,

Yes, there are significant leases involved here - but I'm still willing to give Wickes a lot of credit for having a £150m cash balance. It covers about a quarter of the present value of all future lease liabilities.

The company has been paying out an attractive dividend yield, covered by earnings:

Considering the acceleration in the growth rate, the strong cash balance, and the reasonable valuation, I'm willing to bump up our stance on this to a moderately positive one.

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Sabre Insurance (LON:SBRE)

Down 9.5% at 167.8p (£409m) - Trading Update - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =

Sabre Insurance Group plc (the "Group" or "Sabre"), one of the UK's leading motor insurance underwriters, today provides an update on trading for the period from 1 July 2026 to 30 September 2026.

At first glance, this trading update looked fine to me - "Full-year earnings guidance reiterated, with profit before tax for 2026 expected to be slightly higher than 2025"

However, checking the note from Panmure Liberum, I see that they have in fact reduced their GWP (gross writen premium) estimate for the current year by 2.3%, from £236m to £231m.

The new estimate represents year-on-year growth of a little less than 14%.

The growth rate so far this year has been better than that, at 14.3%:

FY27 and F28 also see GWP shaved by small amounts (estimates cut by 0.4%).

Thankfully, the company's pre-tax profit estimates for each year have only received the slightest of trims, e.g. the current year's PBT estimate moves from £52m to £51.9m. Slightly better than last year's £51m result.

So I think it is fair to say that profit is tracking in line. The PBT cut is not material.

The more interesting line is the revenue line - why the pullback in growth expectations?

The company does explain why this is happening, without explicitly telling us that revenue might miss expectations:

Full-year earnings guidance reiterated, with profit before tax for 2026 expected to be slightly higher than 2025

Year-on-year premium growth is expected for the full-year, although growth is likely to moderate in the final quarter as Sabre's pricing discipline is maintained

In the market trends section, they tell us that claims inflation is still running at between 6% and 7%, and that "pricing does not appear to have kept up with the level of claims inflation".

As a result, "Material market-wide price increases are likely to be required to cover claims inflation, which we expect to provide additional momentum to our growth, although the timing remains uncertain".

In other words, Sabre thinks that other insurers have not yet raised prices to the level required.

And in the short-term, to maintain "pricing discipline", they are going to sacrifice some growth. Either growth or profitability needs to be sacrificed, and they have chosen growth.

The CEO comment emphasises this philosophy:

"I am very pleased with our performance through the first nine months of 2026. Our continuing focus on "profit as the target and volume as an outcome" underpins our confidence in delivering a strong full-year result, which we expect will be slightly ahead of 2025.

We have maintained pricing discipline, strong premium volumes and a robust solvency position despite continuing weak market conditions.

We will continue to apply this discipline and focus as we move into 2027 rather than pursue volume for its own sake.

Graham's view

I appreciate this philosophy. An insurer's job is not to pursue growth for the sake of growth. Their job is price their policies sensibly and generate ROE.

Sabre has been doing this:

In August, at the full-year results, Roland was moderately positive on the stock. The market cap is a little lower today as the market digests the disappointment of slightly lower growth. But in the big picture, I expect that little has changed. So I'll leave Roland's moderately positive stance in place.

PBT growth might limited for the next couple of years, but I suspect that the main attraction here is actually the yield. The majority of EPS gets paid directly to the company's shareholders:

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B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM)

Up 1% at 676.4p (£244m) - Half-year Results - Graham - AMBER/GREEN=

[At the time of publication, Graham has a long position in BPM.]

B.P. Marsh & Partners Plc (AIM: BPM), the specialist private equity investor in early-stage financial services businesses, announces its unaudited Group Half Year Results for the six months to 31 July 2026...

We already had an H1 update from BPM in September.

That day, I reduced our stance on the stock as it seemed to me that the growth at the main investee, Pantheon Specialty, was tracking a little below par. This single investment - where BPM owns 41% of it - is worth about 30% of BPM's total assets.

So my main interest in these half-year results is any update relating to Pantheon.

But first, the big picture:

• BPM's NAV improves to £372m (Jan 2026: £360m), despiting paying £13m of dividends.

• Fully diluted NAV per share increases to 996p (Jan 2026: 959.8p).

So there's been plenty of progress to maintain the upward trajectory of NAV and NAV per share over the six-month period, despite the dividends paid.

And the discount to NAV per share, at the current share price, is 32%.

That level of discount says very clearly that the market is nervous about BPM's portfolio valuations, its skill at managing the portfolio, or both! As a shareholder here, I do think the market is perhaps being too timid.

CEO comment from Dan Topping:

“I am pleased to report another strong period for B.P. Marsh. The first half of the financial year saw us convert value built up across the portfolio into cash, delivering meaningful returns to shareholders while continuing to invest for future growth...

Our approach builds on the partnership-led model established by Brian Marsh OBE, which has delivered compound NAV growth of 10.9% a year since flotation, after distributions. With £37.4m of available cash, no debt and a robust pipeline, the Group remains well placed to continue delivering long-term value for shareholders.”

One thing I do appreciate very much about BPM is how they have managed the problem of cash drag. A victim of their own success, they've had "too much" cash on their books, but have gradually reduced it via new investments (both debt and equity) and dividends. It strikes me that £37m is probably still a little too high.

Pantheon: I don't see anything new in today's section on Pantheon:

...Pantheon has established itself as a high-quality, scalable independent specialty broking platform with a growing reputation for the placement of complex risks. Revenue is budgeted to approach £27.7m in the 2026 financial year, compared with approximately £23.8m in 2025, with strong margins and significant cash generation supporting continued reinvestment and growth. Pantheon remains the largest contributor to the Group's NAV, demonstrating the significant value created since the Group's original investment.

The metrics here are quite remarkable:

• Date of initial investment: June 2023

• 31 July 2026 valuation: £112,360,000

• Cost of Equity: £32,800,025

• Equity stake: 41.0%

Pantheon's weight in the portfolio now exceeds 30%:

Group Outlook is strong:

"With £37.4m of Group funds at 31 July 2026, no debt, a growing income base and a robust pipeline, the Group remains well positioned to balance selective new investment with continued returns to shareholders, and to support its entrepreneurial management teams as they grow their businesses."

Graham's view

I am happy to continue holding a small position here, as the 32% discount to NAV does look rather excessive to me.

Even if Pantheon Specialty turned out to be worthless, and was given a valuation of zero, the stock would still be trading at a discount to NAV (the Pantheon investment is valued at £112m, while the gap between NAV and market cap is £128m).

So I think that BPM's share price already punishes it more than enough for not having a very concentrated portfolio.

I could be wrong, of course. But the track record here is genuinely outstanding. So this is a bet I'm personally very comfortable with. I'll leave us on AMBER/GREEN for now, as I wait for a fresh update on Pantheon.