LIVEDaily Stock Market Report (Thur 5th Nov 2026) - SWG, MGNS, FOXT, SOS, NXT
The fallout from the US midterm elections continues.
We’ve had a fantastic collapse in the price of oil, with markets now betting on successful peace talks. Vice President JD Vance said “the reason we lost is the war”, and Trump has acknowledged that the Iran war was at least partly to blame.
Along similar lines, a poll of midterm voters by the AP found that two-thirds of people blamed Trump for inflationary policies. In the same poll four years ago, only half of voters blamed President Biden for inflation. The cost of living is now the single issue that animates voters the most.
In terms of stock market impact, the S&P 500 is unchanged over the past week but the FTSE is up by 1.3%, after a positive gain of nearly 2% yesterday that looks set to continue this morning.
The Democrats are now going to do their best to turn Donald Trump into a “lame duck” until the 2028 presidential election. One thing they can’t do is force him into a peace deal with Iran - but the message to him from American voters seems pretty clear.
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is up 1.1% at 10,950
S&P 500 is down 0.1% at 7,680
Brent crude (January) is down 0.5% at $94.20/bbl
Gold is up 1.7% at $4,130/oz
Bitcoin is up 0.5% at $80,600
Mark Simpson joins me today.
All done for today, thank you.
Companies Reporting
Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
BP (LON:BP.). (£89.8bn | SR99) | Sale of 5% of its 15.9% shareholding in Norwegian oil and gas producer Aker BP, raising $1.06 billion. Proceeds to go towards strengthening bp’s balance sheet. bp now expects full year 2026 divestment and other proceeds to be around $9 billion, around $1 billion higher than previously guided. | ||
National Grid (LON:NG.). (£63.6bn | SR65) | Operating profit +55% (£2,359m). Underlying operating profit +13% (£2,591m). 2026/2027: "Underlying EPS is now expected to increase 15 –16% from the 2025/26 baseline, reflecting higher allowed revenue as we step-up delivery from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3.” | ||
Diageo (LON:DGE) (£40.4bn | SR77) | Organic growth excluding East African Breweries (EABL): net sales +0.6%, volume down 0.1%. Fiscal 27 guidance unchanged from Capital Markets Day. | ||
Prudential (LON:PRU) (£23.8bn | SR22) | "…achievement of our Group 2026 new business profit growth guidance is now more stretching than anticipated at the time of the Half-Year 2026 Results… We nevertheless remain focused on delivery of our FY26 guidance of double-digit growth across our four Key Financial Metrics.” | ||
BT (LON:BT.A) (£23.1bn | SR51) | Financial performance on track; full year guidance reconfirmed. H1 revenue £8.8bn, up 1%, adjusted service revenue £7.7bn, down 1%. Reported PBT £1.1bn, up 12%. | ||
Next (LON:NXT) (£18.7bn | SR74) | Thirteen weeks to 31 October: full price sales up 8.1% vs. last year. This was £33m ahead of guidance of up 5.8% for the second half. All sales overperformance came from international business and the profit from these sales was offset by increased international operating costs. “We are maintaining our guidance for full year profit before tax at £1,255m, up +8.4%.” | AMBER/GREEN= (Graham) | |
M&G (LON:MNG) (£7.87bn | SR62) | £1.8 billion net inflows from open business in the quarter. “In a volatile external environment, we continued to grow and make good progress against our strategic objectives.” | ||
Croda International (LON:CRDA) (£5.05bn | SR63) | Q3 sales £450m, up 6.6% organically. FY26 outlook unchanged, “despite the ongoing geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty”. | ||
Howden Joinery (LON:HWDN) (£4.55bn | SR79) | Period from 14 June to 31 Oct: reported sales +6.8%. Pro forma sales +2.1%. “Our on-going productivity and efficiency programmes are supporting competitive pricing across all our kitchen and joinery categories and are helping to mitigate inflationary pressures. We remain on track with the outlook for 2026.” | ||
Autotrader (LON:AUTO) (£4.34bn | SR44) | Results in line with expectations. EPS up 5% (18.1p). “We maintain that Group operating profit will be £395m - £415m for financial year 2027, with accelerating revenue growth in the second half.” | ||
Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) (£4.21bn | SR94) | Record nine months’ production of 501 kboepd; Q3 production up 9% vs Q3 2025. Full year production guidance upgraded to 500-505 kboepd (490-500 kboepd previously). | ||
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) (£3.68bn | SR91) | “We are reiterating our outlook for 2026 Group revenue to grow in the range of 2% to 4% and we are narrowing our expected Group operating profit range to $740 million to $760 million, from the previous range of $720 million to $770 million.” | ||
RS (LON:RS1) (£3.56bn | SR92) | “…our performance was ahead of our expectations and well ahead of the prior period, in part due to easier comparatives… We enter the second half well positioned…” Consensus for the year ending 31 March 2027 has revenue of £3,017 million, adjusted operating profit of £284 million and adjusted profit before tax of £263 million. | ||
Tate & Lyle (LON:TATE) (£2.52bn | SR93) | Outlook for the 2027 financial year maintained. Acquisition by Ingredion was approved in July. Continue to expect completion in the second half of | TAKEOVER | |
Helios Towers (LON:HTWS) (£2.2bn | SR37) | Q3 YTD Tenancies +12% to 35,379, Adj. EBITDA +13% to $392.2m, Op Profit +23% to $259.1m, Net Leverage 3.4x (9m25: 3.6x). | ||
Derwent London (LON:DLN) (£2.13bn | SR61) | £39.8m of leasing and asset management YTD, with open-market lettings 6.1% above December 2025 ERV; further £1.7m of lettings under offer | ||
Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS) (£2.02bn | SR84) | “…strong trading momentum has continued…now anticipates that its full year results for 2026 will be slightly ahead of its previous expectations.” Additional £75m share buyback. Following the announcement of the share buyback, the average daily net cash for the full year is now expected to be in a range between £390m - £400m. | GREEN= (Graham) | |
Osb (LON:OSB) (£1.67bn | SR50) | 9m Net Loan Book +1.9% to £26.4bn. Risk-weighted Assets +1.6% to £12.7bn. CET1 -40bps to 15.4%. Arrears -10bps to 1.6%. | ||
Vesuvius (LON:VSVS) (£1.16bn | SR82) | 9m steel production +3.1%. Trading profit in FY26 is expected to be broadly in line with FY25 trading profit on a constant currency basis | ||
Vistry (LON:VTY) (£922m | SR35) | Open Market conditions remain difficult and similar to those described by the Group in September, reflecting affordability constraints, cautious consumer sentiment and wider macroeconomic uncertainty. The Group continues to manage pricing and incentives on a site-specific basis, while tightly aligning build rates with demand. | ||
Morgan Advanced Materials (LON:MGAM) (£717m | SR77) | 9m Sales +4.9%.Now expect adjusted operating profit for 2026 to be around the upper end of the range of analysts’ expectations. | ||
Asos (LON:ASC) (£506m | SR59) | GMV -5% to £2.349bn, Adj. Revenue -9% to £2.240bn. Adj. EBITDA +29% to £170.3m. Adj. LBT £46.4m (FY25: £98.2m Adj. LBT). Net debt £109.3m (FY25: £184.7m). “Trading in the opening weeks of FY27 has been encouraging, with Group GMV growth broadly flat YoY despite the temporary impact of the cyber incident.” | ||
Next 15 (LON:NFG) (£366m | SR62) | Completed the sale of Marker (comprising the businesses, Archetype, Outcast and Nectar Communications) to AVENIR for a total cash consideration of £70.4m. | ||
Thor Explorations (LON:THX) (£326m | SR91) | THOR EXPLORATIONS ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2026 FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS | Q3 net profit of US$47.3 million (Q3 2025: US$43.1 million). Previously announced production guidance revised for 2026 to 70,000 oz - 72,000 oz (previously 75,000 oz - 85,000 oz), following severe rainfall at Segilola in late August and the consequential impact on mining operations. AISC guidance maintained at US$1,000 - US$1,200 per oz. | |
Caledonia Mining (LON:CMCL) (£296m | SR75) | RCF of up to US$50m at an interest rate of the secured overnight financing rate for the relevant period plus 8.10% per annum. term facility of up to US$100m, with an accordion option of up to a further US$50m, at an interest rate of SOFR plus 7.90% per annum. | ||
CLS Holdings (LON:CLI) (£175m | SR25) | 9-year lease starting 1 January 2027 with existing occupier Colt Technology Services, an occupier for over 25 years which secures rental income above €1.7 million per year was signed at 2.7% above passing rent and in-line ERV. | ||
Galantas Gold (LON:GAL) (£158m | SR25) | Entered into a doré purchase contract with Ocean Partners USA, Inc. in respect of doré and refined metal to be produced from the Company’s Andacollo Gold project in Chile. | ||
Foxtons (LON:FOXT) (£106m | SR56) | Q3 revenue -6% YoY to £45.9m (-7% Lettings, -5% Sales, -7% Financial Services). | AMBER/RED (Mark) | |
Critical Metals (LON:CRTM) (£94.6m | SR20) | Completion of 3D block modelling and confirmation of copper oxide mineralisation at the Molulu Copper/Cobalt Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. | ||
Logistics Development (LON:LDG) (£87.9m | SR76) | Increased offer of 20 pence in cash and 5p in non-convertible payment-in-kind loan notes maturing in 5 years’ time. | ||
Chapel Down (LON:CDGP) (£73.8m | SR28) | Retail offer via BookBuild of up to 1,162,790 new ordinary shares at a price of 43p per share. In addition to £5.5m placing. | ||
Cora Gold (LON:CORA) (£72.7m | SR32) | Best intercepts from Dakounkoura South include 38m at 0.27g/t from 51m. | ||
Ondine Biomedical (LON:OBI) (£62.2m | SR6) | Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust is adopting Steriwave photodisinfection for elective orthopaedic surgery. | ||
Time Finance (LON:TIME) (£54.5m | SR93) | Revenue +4% to £38.5m, PBT +6% to £8.4m, EPS +8% to 6.8p. Agreed offer at 59.1p per share.Completion remains subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the remaining Conditions of the Scheme Document, including the FCA Condition and the sanction of the Scheme by the Court at the Scheme Sanction Hearing. | TAKEOVER | |
Kromek (LON:KMK) (£35.7m | SR36) | Follow-on $1.4m order over 12 months, from an existing OEM customer in the Advanced Imaging division for the supply of CZT-based detector components for the customer’s medical systems. | ||
Manx Financial (LON:MFX) (£25.6m | SR39) | Q3 Net loan book £415.4m. Q3 net interest income +9.6% to £10.3m with a total capital ratio of 16.1%.Tangible net assets per share remained at £0.24. | ||
Sosandar (LON:SOS) (£21.5m | SR86) | Revenue +11% to £20.8m, Adj. LBT £0.7m (26H1: £1.1m LBT). | AMBER (Mark) | |
Shearwater (LON:SWG) (£15.3m | SR56) | Brookcourt has secured a strategic three-year contract with a major UK telecommunications provider, worth £9.2m. £3.0m recognised in FY27, supporting delivery of market expectations for the period with, with enhanced revenue visibility through to October 2029. SP +11% | AMBER/GREEN = (Mark - I hold) | |
Potentially AI (LON:AGI) (£15.1m | SR12) | Formal launch of Prompt Club the Potentially community and partnership programme. | ||
Angus Energy (LON:ANGS) (£14.4m | SR36) | Saltfleetby production licence extended to 3 April 2037. Brockham production licence extended to 27 October 2035. | ||
Atome (LON:ATOM) (£14.3m | SR5) | In the event that the investment dispute cannot be resolved amicably for whatever reason and the project fails, funding and offtake agreements will fail and be terminated, including the cancellation of their interest in ATOME’s shares. |
Analyst notes
The initial market reaction this morning may seem excessive for a contract of this size, and a re-iteration of in-line trading. However, there are several reasons why this may be a positive development. The key point management highlights is that it provides evidence that Shearwater can generate growth by selling additional services to existing clients, not just by winning new clients. This potentially bodes well for upselling to other clients.
The current cybersecurity backdrop is highly supportive of these efforts. Which, combined with very modest forward multiples for a company forecast to generate at least mid-teens percentage CAGR EPS growth over the next few years, means that I am in no rush to reduce my position, nor our mostly positive view.
We've been mostly GREEN on this stock in 2026 - for example, see my most recent comments in July. Today's statement helps to reassure me that this is the right call for us. Like the traditional housebuilders, it has exposure to the first-time buyer - with all of the affordability and mortgage interest rate concerns associated with that. But unlike the traditional housebuilders, it also has heavy exposure to the commercial market and to a wide range of other sectors, through its Fit Out and Construction sectors. In that sense, it's a truly diversified bet on construction activity in general.
Some basic maths shows that Q2 was relatively poor, generating flat sales compared with the year before. The reason given is the hotter weather in September, which delayed sales of colder-weather clothes. The big question for me is whether these sales were merely deferred, or whether it is too much to catch up now that the weather has turned. So far, they have avoided discounting to clear stock, but if the stock doesn't shift in time, they may be forced into more promotional activity.
These risks make the current share price not particularly attractive given the high rating, as it leaves little room for an unexpectedly weak period, even if it is weather-driven. Confidence isn't improved by the lack of forecasts beyond the current fiscal year. This looks like it may be yet another stock that bought back shares at a value that ultimately proved far from the bargain management thought it was at the time!
We've not reviewed this on the DSMR for a while, and last time we viewed it largely negatively due to a profit warning. A lot has changed since then, and recent renewed growth trends mean that retaining this view is probably a bit harsh. However, with a weak Q2 and the risk of a warning increasing today, the best I can get is neutral.
This looks like a fairly poor quarter, although there is a specific reason for the lettings weakness. Zooming out, the company looks to be running hard to stand still, with acquisitions required to offset the impact of weakness in the UK housing market. Trading profits for FY26 are said to be in line with expectations. However, these were slashed earlier in the year. With just the seasonally weakest quarter to go, an in-line statement isn't unexpected, but we don't get an update on net debt, and the previous trends were not encouraging.
The risks, as I see them, are with FY27. If UK house prices fall in response to recent interest rate increases, they will face further pressure on sales fees. For lettings, things should be more robust, and smaller landlords exiting the sector in response to the higher regulatory burden may provide a medium-term tailwind for rents. However, in the short term, the impact may be fewer properties to let.
This is undoubtedly a cyclical business, and at some point will turn upwards. However, there are few signs that they are managing to arrest the near-term dive, despite pulling on the yoke as hard as they can. It looks like we didn't review the company after the big profits earlier in the year, so this is a belated reduction in our view from me today, but one also backed by more recent trends.
- Next (LON:NXT)
Next trading well internationally; still not buying back its own stock at this share price
I'm staying moderately positive on this share, purely on valuation grounds. If the company itself doesn't view its shares as a bargain, then I shouldn't, either. And honestly, paying an earnings multiple of 18x for any retailer, even the one that's best-in-class, is an aggressive bet. Therefore, while I remain a fan of this business, as I have been over the long-term, I wouldn't be tempted to open a new position in the stock at the current level.
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21 comments
Some construction / housebuilding related stocks discussed today. The September S&P Global UK Construction PMI was also released today. Hopefully this link works and takes subscribers direct to the actual report.
I think that this broadly confirms the analysis of Morgan Sindall - housebuilding under further pressure with some grounds for optimism in construction, especially niche areas such as data centres.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, some further cost inflation to consider.
Defence stocks and ETF getting a kicking. Ciild be a good add point?
Hardide (LON:HDD) too. Are they heavily exposed to defence?
Would guess so
But isn't a problem here for Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS) that it's reiterated estimates for next year which are for lower EPS?
The two day schedule for Mello London has just been released. A little earlier than normal as the event is still two weeks away but companies have booked in earlier and we are 98% full. The are less than 100 tickets left so do not leave it too late. The programme is amazing and Ed and Mark are both on the bill
ML26 SCHEDULE FINAL
Everything you need to know is here... MelloLondon 2026 | Investor Conference | 17–18 November | London — Mello Events
Shearwater (LON:SWG)
When I read the results, I was disappointed that there was no dividend or buyback announced
lol the thought of a business losing money for its entire existence and paying a dividend is crazy to me - perhaps its sensible to wait till they actually deliver some profit before voting dividends ! hey ho perhaps there was some available reserves from its alter ego days that might allow this.
buybacks do make sense if its not just more "broken promises" like the last 9 years have been.
Positive 3Q update from Morgan Advanced Materials (LON:MGAM). I liked especially the words "industrial end-markets have proved resilient". Not exactly exciting, but it looks as if the fruits of a couple of years of efficiency drives are coming through. I hold.
Is the intention that the DSMR lists all UK stocks reporting on the day? I had assumed it was but then I see Diversified Energy (LON:DEC) was missed yesterday and Thor Explorations (LON:THX) today - it's ok if there are occassional oversights, but it would be good to understand the intention. Thanks Jim
Thanks for the question, jimbr. I have now added Thor Explorations (LON:THX) to the table but I acknowledge that doing so at this stage of the day makes little difference. Investigating why we missed it, I can see that the news item didn't show up in the general Stocko news feed this morning. I wonder if that might be due to the company using MFN instead of RNS. I'll ask someone about this. Apologies. G
A review of Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS) if possible please.
Shearwater (LON:SWG) Significant contract award. At the moment this the highest riser of companies on this morning's list.
looking good ! to cheap
Wow, that is a huge agenda today! Well done on getting through it so quickly to complete the table
Is Thor Explorations (LON:THX) going to make it on the table this time considering it didn't make it on in October for the previous trading update?
Would be good please if time permits.
I will observe the BT (LON:BT.A) reaction with interest - the market loves to find fault with their results that look fine to me - a small increase in the generous dividend is always welcome (to holders) but defensive shares are more popular at the moment and the TalkTalk acquisition, should it go through, is likely to boost earnings potentially quite significantly - IMO this should lead to a better price reaction today but the shares were already up yesterday so maybe half the job is done.
Any views on RS (LON:RS1) Croda International (LON:CRDA) Howden Joinery (LON:HWDN) would be appreciated
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) "we are pleased to narrow our expected Group operating profit range to $740 million to $760 million.”" and "we are narrowing our expected Group operating profit range to $740 million to $760 million, from the previous range of $720 million to $770 million."
Not sure if this counts as a profit warning or not.
No profit warning, their estimate is simply becoming more precise. You could even argue that the midpoint has increased slightly (from $745m to $750m). (Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) )
Err, narrowing the range to $10m from the top of the old one but $20m from the bottom sounds more like a mild positive to me.