LIVEDaily Stock Market Report (Tue 10th Nov) - VOD, DIA, TPX, FCH, BPM, NTBR
Poundland is on the brink with its owners having blocked its access to cash, according to the BBC.
US-based retail specialists Gordon Brothers bought the chain for £1 last year. The company has recently announced a notice of intention to appoint administrators.
It may be able to buy in new stock again soon:
Access to funds was limited because of a tension between Gordon Brothers' dual role as both creditor and shareholder, a source said, but added they expected a relaxation of funds in the next two days.
I presume that access to funds depends to a large extent on the quality of any takeover bids that it receives. Martin Property Group (from Northern Ireland) are interested in taking it over, and have asked for Gordon Brothers to release funds promptly.
It’s an unfortunate situation for the High Street just before Christmas and a timely reminder of just how tough it is out there - even for retailers offering the cheapest goods to consumers who are desperate for bargains.
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is up 0.7% at 10,855
S&P 500 is up 0.2% at 7,565
Brent crude (January) is down 1.2% at $91.45/bbl
Gold is down 0.5% at $4,120/oz
Bitcoin is down 0.4% at $74,600
Roland Head joins me today.
Leaving it there for today, thanks!
Companies Reporting
Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
Vodafone (LON:VOD) (£27bn | SR86) | Revenue +11.4%. “We now upgrade our guidance for FY27, with Group Adjusted EBITDAaL expected to be €13.2 – €13.4 billion”. Previous guidance €13.0 – €13.3 billion. | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) | |
DCC Energy (LON:DCC) (£5.2bn | SR89) | Adjusted continuing operating profit +1.1% to £175.2m. Adjusted continuing EPS +25.6% thanks to lower share count. Recommended acquisition by the consortium led by Energy Capital Partners and KKR approved by shareholders. | TAKEOVER | |
Jet2 (LON:JET2) (£2.8bn | SR97) | Admission will take place on 8 December 2026. | ||
Watches of Switzerland (LON:WOSG) (£1.74bn | SR98) | H1 “slightly ahead” of expectations. Narrowing FY27 guidance to upper end of the previously guided range. “We now expect to deliver FY27 constant currency revenue growth of +7-10%, increased from 5-10%, and to deliver +60-80bps of EBIT margin expansion, increased from +40-80bps.” | ||
Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) (£1.41bn | SR62) | Order intake +44.3% (organic constant currencies). Adjusted PBT +28.3% (£30.9m). The Group continues to trade in line with market expectations for FY27. For FY28, improved outlook for Advanced Technologies division. | ||
Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) (£1.39bn | SR87) | Agreed to divest its Toolstation Benelux business as a standalone entity for cash consideration of €1 to Fidelium Partners. | ||
4imprint (LON:FOUR) (£1.21bn | SR91) | Reaffirms FY26 financial guidance provided in the interim results: revenue slightly above 2025 ($1.35bn) and adjusted profit before tax of approximately $130m. These expectations are within the current range of analysts' forecasts. | ||
Playtech (LON:PTEC) (£1.14bn | SR59) | The Company now expects Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended 31 December 2026 to be over €300 million, above the current analyst consensus (analyst estimates: €271 million - €285 million). 2027: “The introduction of other third-party “past motor racing” suppliers is underway and is now expected to have a more material impact on Playtech’s wallet share into 2027.” | ||
Princes (LON:PRN) (£905m | SR84) | Revenue +10%, adj. EBITDA +6.4% (£116.2m). Confidence in the Group's outlook and confidence in delivering full-year expectations. | ||
Avon Technologies (LON:AVON) (£726m | SR57) | Orders received +0.2% at constant currency. Adj. PBT +59.2% ($55.4m). FY27 expectations in line with medium-term targets: mid-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted operating profit margin within target 16-18% range, free cash flow of approximately $50-60m. | ||
Funding Circle Holdings (LON:FCH) (£608m | SR62) | “…we are now in a position to upgrade expectations for FY26. We expect revenue for FY26 to be at least £275 million with profit margins of c.16%. Our previous guidance was FY26 revenue of more than £255 million and profit before tax of more than £40 million.” | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland) | |
Filtronic (LON:FTC) (£471m | SR30) | Follow-on contract for $3m with Filtronic’s undisclosed US-based customer in satellite communications. | ||
Tatton Asset Management (LON:TAM) (£412m | SR68) | Revenue +24.8% to £32.1m with adj operating profit +33.3% to £17.5m. Adj EPS +35% to 21.62p. Outlook: 2029 growth target unchanged, “The Board looks to the year ahead and beyond with confidence”. | ||
Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) (£333m | SR75) | Production has been suspended as further attacks on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure have meant electricity supply is “unstable and insufficient”. Orders for European customers will be supplied from existing inventories. | ||
Capita (LON:CPI) (£320m | SR20) | Ofgem proposes to disallow DCC costs of up to £24m & Capita Response to Ofgem statement regarding price consultation | Ofgem has published its draft determination on the Data Communications Company (DCC) Price Control submission for 25/26 and is proposing to disallow costs of up to £24m. | |
Public Policy Holding (LON:PPHC) (£261m | SR18) | Q3 revenue +13.2% to $55.2m with organic revenue growth of 5.1%. Adj net income +8.7% to $10.7m. Outlook: FY26 guidance reaffirmed. | ||
B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM) (£255m | SR59) | Founder Brian Marsh has sold 2,338,461 shares at 650p, for an aggregate of £15.2m. | AMBER/GREEN= (Graham) | |
Dialight (LON:DIA) (£224m | SR69) | H1 revenue +8% to $94.4m with pre-tax profit +9.7% to $14.2m. FY27 outlook: the Board believes the group has the potential to significantly exceed current expectations for net income this year (previous consensus net profit: $13.8m). | AMBER/GREEN= (Graham) | |
Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) (£182m | SR33) | Results in line with July 2026 guidance. Revenue -12% to £91.6m with adj operating profit -18% to £18.3m and adj EPS -21% to 60.3p. Net cash of £24.5m. FY27 outlook: geopolitical and auto industry headwinds continue. The Board expects FY27 adj operating profit to be in line with current expectations. | ||
Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX) (£103m | SR73) | Revenue +60% to £57.9m with new business wins of £86m (H1 26: £31m). Adj EBITDA +152% to £8.09m with adj EPS of 5.6p (H1 26: 1.7p). Net cash of £1.0m. Outlook: FY27 guidance unchanged for revenue of at least £105m and adj EBITDA of at least £14m. | AMBER/GREEN ↓ (Roland) | |
Sintana Energy (LON:SEI) (£100m | SR17) | QatarEnergy has agreed to acquire a 25% participating interest in PEL 82, offshore Namibia, from Chevron. Custos Energy holds a 10% participating interest in PEL 82 and Sintana maintains a 49% indirect interest in Custos. Chevron will retain operatorship of PEL 82 and Sintana’s indirect interest is unchanged by this transaction. | ||
Zanaga Iron Ore (LON:ZIOC) (£30m | SR27) | The RAM transaction is now unlikely to conclude by 30 Nov 26. This means RAM no longer holds exclusivity, but the parties remain in discussions. The company is now also exploring alternative financing solutions and has appointed an adviser to carry out a strategic review. | ||
Amigo Resources (LON:AMGO) (£29m | SR69) | Ingots weighing c.16.75kg have been produced from the company’s Tanzanian operations, with contained Osmium and Iridium elements of 2.265%. A further 12 tonnes of concentrate has been produced and will be used to produce further ingots. | ||
Wynnstay Properties (LON:WSP) (£24m | SR71) | H1 rental income +1.5% to £1,428k with pre-tax profit -2.7% to £758k. NAVps +3.6% to 1,215p. Interim dividend +4.8% to 11.0p. Outlook: at present, expect a satisfactory outcome to the year. | ||
Nexteq (LON:NXQ) (£22m | SR51) | Completed the sale of a property asset in Taiwan, resulting in a cash inflow of $3.7m after the repayment of related mortgage balances. Nexteq now only has $0.2m in loan balances remaining. Trading remains consistent with previous guidance, with the usual seasonal weighting expected from the last two months of the year. | ||
Lords Trading (LON:LORD) (£17m | SR44) | Has completed the acquisition of the remaining 6.4% interest in DH&P, which was acquired in April 2022. Lord now owns 100% of DH&P. | ||
Northern Bear (LON:NTBR) (£16m | SR97) | H1 results in line with expectations. Revenue -21% to £38.9m, with underlying operating profit -25% to £2.1m. Adj EPS -23% to 11.2p. FY27 outlook expected to be “broadly in line” with expectations on an underlying basis. | GREEN= (Graham) | |
Zoo Digital (LON:ZOO) (£14m | SR75) | H1 revenue +5.5% to $23.6m with operating profit of $1.5m, “demonstrating a sustained return to growth and higher demand for localisation”. FY27 outlook: H1 benefited from some one-off projects that may not repeat in H2, but management is confident of delivering FY27 profit in line with market expectations. |
Analyst notes
- Vodafone (LON:VOD)
Vodafone H1 revenue up 11% from acquisitions and stronger growth, but profitability remains challenging
Much of the information needed to support today's upgraded guidance had already been factored into consensus forecasts, which I expect to be largely unchanged. However, I'm encouraged by stronger revenue growth and stable margins and don't see any reason to alter our broadly positive view.
Roland was moderately positive on Dialight last time, and that stance continues to make sense to me. The company has made enormous progress and appears to be doing everything right. However, that may already be priced in. As of last night, the earnings multiple was over 20x. The metric probably hasn't moved far today, even with the positive outlook statement, considering that the share price has risen by 7%. With a ValueRank of 24, the StockReport also struggles to find much value here. The bottom line is that I think new investors at the current share price will need further upgrades to do well.
- Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX)
TPXimpact sees H1 revenue up 60%, but guidance suggests a weaker H2, we moderate our view
Today's half-year results are clearly very strong, but broker forecasts have been trimmed slightly today and today's unchanged management guidance suggests profits will be significantly lower in H2. I don't see any serious problems here, but I think it makes sense to moderate our view slightly after such a strong run this year.
A large insider sale is never a positive event. But this is a case where there are many mitigating circumstances. The most obvious one is the fact that an octogenarian may wish to restructure their wealth for reasons that have little to do with the financial prospects of what is being bought and sold. In my view, the biggest questions here are around the ability of the existing management team to continue BPM's legacy of strong returns. So far, I have few reasons to doubt them.
- Funding Circle Holdings (LON:FCH)
Funding Circle Holdings upgrades earnings guidance again, pre-tax profit now 10% higher
Leaving aside a couple of minor quibbles, I'm confident that today's upgrade is material and highlights the strong momentum in this refocused business. The valuation continues to look reasonable to me given the improved profitability of the business, so I'm leaving our moderately-positive view unchanged.
- Northern Bear (LON:NTBR)
Northern Bear to become a very different investment proposition after tender offer
This is going to fundamentally change the risk profile of NTBR shares: rather than a business with more than enough cash than it needs, it will have a "modest" level of net debt. By the time the transaction is done, the share count will have reduced by a massive 50%. On the basis that interest costs are modest and the business remains profitable, this has the potential to transform earnings per share. In that sense, it's an exciting and bold move - but one that also carries plenty of risk. We've been GREEN on Northern Bear, for reasons of its cheap valuation and balance sheet strength. I'm going to remain fully positive on it for the time being but when the tender offer takes place, I should probably revise my stance to a more cautious one.
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30 comments
interesting to see that BT.A has moved from neutral to contrarian. My experience of BT/Openreach over the last twenty years has been such that I wouldn't consider investing in the company. Its ability to organise and execute a simple visit by an engineer is very poor. It's in the category of "unable to organise a party in a brewery"
Yes very true - of course Dialight (LON:DIA) does look like a model live test of those rules.
It's StockRank jumped from 64 to 90 in the last week of June, a textbook 90/80 - entry at about 417p. It held at 80 or above until late October, and the first weekly close below 80 came on 30th October at 554p. So the rule would have banked about a third in four months, and the shares closed at that same 554p on Monday - of course liquidity doesn't make the maths so precise in reality. It's not a share I've owned... but I know others here bought on other guidance upgrades and rank improvements.
Today's guidance upgrade may yet make that <80 signal look early of course - and I do think the ranks will rise again.
I hadn't realized how significant the African business is to VOD, now more important than the UK part in many ways. This has encouraged me to continue holding.
Our free to attend Mello Trusts & Funds is today at 1pm for any investors who'd like to join us. Nick Britton of the AIC & Andrew McHattie are doing keynote talks with JUSC, EJFI & ARR all presenting. You can register here: https://www.melloevents.com/mitf101126
This is our final warm up for MelloLondon next week on the 17th & 18th. Ed Croft & Mark Simpson will definitely be with us with a number of the Stockopedia community. DIA & ZOO who both had interim results today will be presenting alongside an amazing 55 other company management teams. As an fyi... general release tickets end today if you were thinking of joining us and would like to lock in a cheaper rate. Use code Stocko25 for a further 25% off.
The full schedule can be found on the link below too so you can see all the companies attending.
https://www.melloevents.com/mellolondon2026
Airtel Africa (LON:AAF) . I’ve been a happy holder of this for a couple of years, based on the demographics of its customer base and its growth rates, but have been concerned by seeing a steady drift down in the stock rank recently. In doing further research as to whether to sell, I’ve noticed that the recent buyback and cancellation programme once completed by December will represent about 1.6% of the share count, which is actually very relevant in the context of the controlling shareholder group owning around 80%. Given that the principal factor in a weak SR is Momentum I’ve decided to hold on, rightly or wrongly.
I would be very interested in the views of others, whether holders or not.
SP Marriott re Airtel Africa (LON:AAF) I'm very much with you and see this as a solid medium term hold. Growth rates are great, margins excellent, FCF good. In a strong and growing industry with lots to go at on penetration and usage. Airtel Mobile Commerce NV (LON:AMC) float could have gone better but seems to be gathering a following. On the other hand Bharti 80% Holding feels like a dead hand and surely puts off many. The threat of Musk and Starlink coming in at some point also seemed to take some wind out of the sails recently. I suspect this may be over egged in the short to medium term and Starlink brand being massively damaged by what's going on with Ukraine. Though that might be an entirely European take.
Happy to see where this runs and imo worth minimum 375p and would be more like 500p if Bharti were a more usual level holder.
Thought the Vodafone (LON:VOD) update today was supportive on read across too.
B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM) Surprised no comments so far on the discounted sale by the founder. Wonder who has bought in - a bunch of buyers or just one or two - New or existing. Either way, todays Mkt reaction was predictable.
B.P. Marsh & Partners (LON:BPM)
thats what old age will do to you - note i think he is now 85 so i dont think you can ever say someone of that ilk is "rushing to the exit" to beat current shareholders..
Note some might say they have invested extra in one of their biggest investments "at healthy price" recently and that might have supported good valuation that helped the most recent results look good. Personally as long term holder i am 100% happy here - i personally dont read any negative into 85 year old cashing in their chips - he deserves all he has got - people can head for the door if they dont like it.
Obviously the market takes the viewpoint if he is happy to sell wad at 660p then ......... its now worth less - so it might take future "decent results" for this to be return to norm and be forgotten about.
like anyone who holds shares when price at or near "all time highs" - well do we blame anyone for selling up at that time ?
Lets hope Mr Marsh is in rude health and that there arent any health issues triggering this sale.
I used this opportunity this morning to top up. Been a long-term holder of this and as long as the company continues to perform as it's I have no reason to sell down
SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) I hold
Comprehensive webcast and Q&A by CEO Simon Tucker this morning where he outlined progress and plans and covers the financial concerns. He doesn’t seem too concerned about the latter and sees it as a function of rapid systems expansion. A recording will be available on their website later today.
SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT)
He doesn’t seem too concerned about the latter
lol he might not be worried about material uncertaintly but i would be as shareholder - what i would want to here is what propspects are that this note will not re appear - he will still be in a job if the company needs discounted rights issue - so is he talking from his perspective or is he talking from the perspective that shareholders want to avoid at any costs forced rights issue when shareprice is depressed.
to be fair to the company they have raised £16 million at what has turned out to be fairly good shareprice - so they havent been completely a sleep at the wheel.
Note the shares in issue have doubled here since 2018 - and the move into profits hasnt stopped that trend with the recent issue.
main potential nightmare is that were anything to go wrong that would need extra wonga to sort - then shareprice tanks immediately and then rights issue could be at half the price it could have been if outlook was uber rosy.
i would argue that he shouldnt show no concern ref this issue - his job is to let investors know that the issue is being addressed and to satisfy investors that its not reg flag being "glossed over"
I do kinda get that its an occupational hazzard where they are now - but we cant be talking abouut may companies that are in this position ref that note here AI's assessment - that may be nonsense.
My ballpark assessment
If you looked across all UK listed companies, I would expect this type of material uncertainty due to forecast funding requirements despite existing finance options to occur in perhaps the top 5-10% most financially stretched companies, but it is not close to the worst end of the spectrum.
The key question for investors would be whether future customer receipts are:
highly likely but delayed, or uncertain in themselves.
SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT)
I commented that Tucker didn't appear too concerned because they have been looking into alternative methods of funding as well as receiving support from UKEF (who really need to speed up their act but are dealing with other governments). Another rights issue is not impossible but seems unlikely unless numerous large contracts are ready for signing in very short order.
I can only suggest you watch the recording to get a fuller picture of where the company stands.
SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) I hold
I agree that the doubters here should watch the webcast rather than make up their minds based on an RNS. It was clear to me that SRT knows it needs to avoid tying up its own capital in order to provide performance bonds. It sees this as inefficient use of capital and is actively exploring a number of other options. It plans to accelerate cash flow by providing the most profitable parts of its system i.e. software, as early as possible.
The central message of this webcast is that after a strategic review it has identified the most profitable and in demand elements of its services, systems and products. These are the areas that will be given the resources needed. All aspects of the business are now aligned to a single vision which is based on delivering reliably what their customers want as these are mission critical systems. As ST said, their customers do not have a plan B.
Various conversion rates for the VSP have been modelled to understand what this means for revenue. SRT does not know how quickly some parts of the VSP will convert but it is real not imagined and intelligent assumptions have been made. What is crystal clear is that demand is growing at an exponential rate with Kuwait in the vanguard. I am personally confident that we will see material progress towards the much larger company Simon Tucker has set sights upon.
A relative tiddler but Aeorema Communications (LON:AEO) keeps upgrading expectations as it has reported again this morning with "a further material upgrade", with pbt "to no less than £1.25 million. With cash of £3m as at sept 26 one might hope this to be increasing, with an mcap of £8m and a stock rank of 97 "super stock" it might fit the criteria of a multibagger or is it just a good year for them ? It would be good to get an overdue overview please
Dialight (LON:DIA) is making a habit of this. By my (algo) count today is its seventh guidance upgrade since October last year, and the shares have quintupled since the 2025 low.
Looks like the first half's profit is already about three quarters of the (upgraded) full-year forecast, before you get to "significantly exceed".
It's the same pattern we see again and again. Analysts only nudge their forecasts part of the way up, so the company has to keep telling them they're still too low.
The StockRank has slipped from the high 80s in July to 69, as the historic valuation stretched - I'm presuming it turns back up once the brokers catch up.
Hi Ed. You highlight the difficulty of using SR for buying and selling. SR below 80 is a sell signal using the SR jump analysis method. The joys of using a probabilistic system for investing, won't be right all of the time!
Watches of Switzerland (LON:WOSG) could do well today
Analysis would be appreciated
Northern Bear (LON:NTBR)
Uber bold move by northern bear to buy back nearly half the share capital of the business - I can’t believe for a second that this will fully be taken up by shareholders - the actual % they will buy back may depend on some of the bigger holders perhaps if they want to accept something close to clean break or sell high %.
Ref actual trading it seems to be a bit anemic ref outlook at present but they have delivered a decent first half so it’s kinda semi steady as you go - results last year were always flagged up at the get go as being one off ref ref high level of profits due to one very profitable contract.
Note this company doesn’t normally over promise so conservative outlook is pretty standard for them.
What % of shares will be tendered - I know not - if I was a guessing man I would be surprised if they got away with much more than 50-60% of the number they have offered to buy back max - perhaps something 25% plus might be expected - it could be anything.
I don’t have an an plans to sell material amounts below 150p whilst is making 2.5 mill plus net profits eos should take nice jump with less shares in issue - I would expect shareprice might settle at 130p today factoring in ability of shareholders to exit at just above that level via share tender.
FCH and WOSG decent
That would be Funding Circle Holdings (LON:FCH) and Watches of Switzerland (LON:WOSG)
yes it would
Vodafone (LON:VOD) positive H1 FY27 results today driven by growth in Africa. Europe still struggling for growth. European operations to be improved through increased efficiency (AI) cost savings (redundancies) forecast.
"Today, we are upgrading our guidance for both profit and cash flow for the year, and we now expect to deliver over 20% organic Adjusted Free Cash Flow growth in year one of our multi-year double-digit cash flow growth trajectory.”
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
Morning Revs8,
Vodafone (LON:VOD) is on the list this morning!
Roland
Today’s H1 results from Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX) slightly beat last month’s trading update, the fourth EBITDA beat or upgrade this year. Together with repeated contract wins, that has more than quadrupled the shares. Yet the market still can’t quite believe it: TPX trades on about 11x this year’s forecast earnings and under 10x next year’s.
Given that record, unchanged FY27 guidance looks conservative. It implies H2 revenue nearly a fifth below H1, and doubling H1’s 5.6p adjusted EPS already beats this year’s consensus. Cavendish suggests TPX is “well-placed for further upgrades”. I hold.
iwright7 thank you! I bought Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX) following your comments in mid February 2026. I should have bought more but have done very well. Your input is greatly appreciated
Sandstone – good that you were able to take advantage. Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX) has been my best-performing share this year.
I first bought in early January, after a whopping +42% jump on its H1 results in December 2025. It just goes to show it’s best not to be afraid of buying after a big rise if you think the shares are still too cheap.
Well I've added Tpximpact Holdings (LON:TPX) this morning.
Big riser but numbers still justify to my eye
And down it goes 5%!!!
Yep 8% at one point. Still struggling now, unfathomable
Dialight (LON:DIA) . Sorry Ed and for the sake of consistency I had to pick you up on this.