New Year NAPS - Top Stocks for 2018 and the Benefits of Ignorance

I was asked the other month to post the individual dividends per share (which I had to hand) and I now do so, to complete the 2018 NAPS.

In doing so, as I posted previously above, I discovered an error.
PLUS dividends (paid in USD) had the decimal point incorrectly displayed - thus grossly undervaluing their contribution. Astonishingly the total dividends are not as I posted of £3.5k but now stand at £4,687 for the full year! (4.6% yield based on the original investment of Jan 2ns 2018)

Which means the capital loss remains as posted as still showing x13.5% down, but when the corrected dividends are taken into account, instead of previously posting of an overall inclusive loss of x10% down, the adjusted dividends now reduce further to x8.8% down!

So it is a single figure % loss after all! I haven't deducted any 25% foregn tax nor the 1% currency HL conversion charge on any of the foreign paid dividends so roughly let's say circa x9% single figures down for the year ending.

I'll post the dividends per share at the foot of this post. I'm in no rush to delete the 'old' 2018 NAPS so if during the year anyone curiously asks how the 2018 NAPS is progressing now that it escapes review changes, I can easily take a glance and post the overall figure - but not the dividends, just the capital movement of the folio.

Dividends paid:

BMY £199
BP. £293
FORT £162
GFM nil
INDV £90
JEL £151
LSL £200
MGNS £166
OCN £237
PLUS £1194 !!!
RPC £161
SCS £367
SND £159
STCK £131
STHR £188
TATE £206
TW. £364
VLE nil
VOD £284
VTC £135

TOTAL £4,687 (4.6%)

ERROR!

Apologies - Was compiling the dividends for showing the payments per share when I noticed an oddity with PLUS.
Checked and yes I've entered the dividend for Plus as single pence instead of single pounds. It's paid in USD so had to convert to GBP and messed up the decimal point. It WILL make a significant difference to the dividends paid (more than I've shown) and will easily reduce the total year's result to a SINGLE figure % loss when dividends taken into account.

It's gone midnight already so want to go over and recheck tomorrow if possible, or Sat if I run out of time. The capital loss is as shown, but the dividends received is much larger than the £3.5k I've shown; hence end result of 2018 NAPS will be a single figure loss only. Will update in due course.

Thanks for your "No Spin" excellent analysis Velo - much appreciated.
Henry

Final Results for 12 months NAPS 2018 up to January 2nd 2019 -


Probably more than anyone else on this particular forum, I have viewed the NAPS 2018 weekly or more, since it's inception and my overriding opinion formed over that period is that of one of a complete "failure to launch". Not one single month did it inspire. A complete damp squib! The 12 months ending on Jan 2nd 2019 came in showing the worst ever of the year, a double percentage loss of x 13.5% capital loss ( x £13,539.09 down).

Dividends, when taken into account, came in @ £3.5k (£3,505.26) thus providing a 3.5% helping hand to the capital loss, for a moment I thought it might by just mere single pounds reduce it to x 9.9% loss, but no, it just missed it by a hair's breadth to reduce the loss to yet still a double figure "true loss" of a x10% loss - right on the nose.
Tsk! just another 0.1% down to 9.9% and it might have had a disproportionate effect on perceptions. (Actually ended up using £100,039.28 as the starting capital back in Jan 2018; you'll just have to forgive me for spending £39 more than budget, I liked the nice roundness look of it all and didn't want to start chopping 2 shares off here and there etc :)

So in a bull market (Stocko launched in 2012?) Stock ranks has proved what all should have been using as the stats show previous years NAPS all coming in with roughly 20%+ gains on average. Stocko has yet to be tested in a real live bear market. 2018 has not encouraged me to believe that stock ranks will produce gains in a bear market. 2019 will be important to dispel that feeling I have.

2 notable star UK fund managers have come in with impressive gains for 2018, so I just don't buy that a double figure loss is "acceptable" as something to be pleased about, just because it's a better "loss" that the FTSE indices, which are all down, worse than the NAPS 2018.
A pyrrhic victory if you like. Just a mere 1% gain would have convinced me to be more positive.

ie.,  Nick Train of Lindsall Train GLOBAL equities is up 140% over 5 years (comparable to stock ranks over 5 years) but as of Christmas week was UP 11% for the last 12 months! Obviously that's global and an unfair comparison.

The other UK fund manager Terry Smith is similar to stock ranks over the past 5 years for gains but has finished up 4% over the last 12 months. Again heavy exposure to US stocks; so suppose even though they're UK funds it's still not a fair comparison. But the point is all their past 5 years are comparable with Stock ranks achievement in the same time span - but NAPS 2018 failed and fell behind that comparison.

 It's just that I shift uneasily when I'm presented with a double figure loss as a "win" and only a win when compared to the wider market.

Saying that, I will be renewing my subscription to Stocko next year as I can't find nor recommend anything better - just call me grumpy.

PS. The current guru leader screen for over 5 years, the Tiny Titans screen, shows a 3% increase for the last year, this last 12 months being it's lowest performance - but still a gain! 

AND that's what I was expecting from the NAPS - 1% to 3% gain. But instead it's a double figure loss. Just don't ask me to get excited about that still being "better" than the indices :( Nobody ever remembers who came second; there's probably loads and loads round the world with a loss, saying 'at least I've beaten the market indices' - who cares when it's a loss?)

 ------------------------------

First table below shows increases/decreases:

Only 5 shares end the year with a gain. Five!

thus leaving 15 showing a red decrease since Jan 2nd 2018 start.

 PLUS reduces that big gain from last month, but still impresses with a year end finish of 55% up.

 INDV jealously guards it's bottom position by closing as the worst performer with a 72% loss! (Actually 3% better than last month; small mercies and all that).

But what really irks me about the 15 red "losers" is that an incredible 8 of those 15 - EIGHT! Sport a stock rank of OVER 90 - (ranging from 91 to 99) That to me sounds like a 'hole' in the system. They were chosen at the year beginning so you can't say they bloomed late in the year into the S/R 90's range. Repeat: 8 of those in the red are well over into the 90's Stock Ranks. The worst performing of the S/R 90's shares showing a 30% loss - GFM - (profit warning the culprit for the decrease).

 PS. That S/R99 share that still ended as a red "loser" makes it into the 2019 NAPS ie., (SCS)

 ------------------------------

Second table shows the Stock Ranks in comparison to starting out on Jan 2nd 2018 -

 STOCK RANKS:

12 shares remain showing a Stock Rank above SR90, compared to the year start - which had 18 commencing in the S/R 90's.

* 5 shares have increased their rating compared to the start of the year

* And same as last month, 15 shares continue to show a reduced Stock Rank ratings since the 2018 year start.

 Highest S/R is 99 (3 of them)

Lowest SR is 42  (VOD, a slight improvement on last month's showing).

 VLE still continues to show the largest single improvement in S/R ratings by increasing 14 points from it's Jan 2nd 2018, starting point.

Interestingly, the worst performing share showing a loss of 72% (INDV) doesn't have a half bad stock rank - S/R 78.

 *** I've been asked for the full list of actual £ dividends paid out to each and every share. Will do so, but it might be tomorrow now. ***

--------------------------

PS.

Won't be doing the same monthly follow up for NAPS 2019 as I will become increasingly unreliable due to other demands, but mainly, to my being busily occupied in the periods over month-ends.

Once upon a time l was a wild speculator in gold stocks , but am now more of a mid-cap handicapper and large - cap speculator . l am currently about eighty percent in cash at four percent yield [ please do not ask me where or how ] .
My current intention is to deal only in the 100 ~ 90 Stock Rank stocks on an equal - weight basis during the coming crash .

Best wishes and thanks to everyone connected to Stockopedia . Ramon .

very good to be able to track the chosen shares on time. it focuses the mind on whether it is best for the amateur investor to be in shares or in funds . I sold all my shares in July after a fall in the market . Significaqnt falls in the shares since then [ building sector ] . Am nervous of getting back in with all the problems - brexit , european problems and usa -China friction .
No apparent easy sure fire options at present .

Worth mentioning the dividends paid out in November for SCS @ 10.9p / share & Plus 500 @ 79.84p/ share net.,which leaves ESOP to pay the tax refund of 25% back for Plus 500 from Israel. The 70.84p/ share also includes the 1 .% charge for currency charges from Hargreaves. the dividend paid out for plus 500 was $1.3786 US.

Results for NAPS 2018 up to December 2nd (Actual Friday's close on Nov 30th) -

Was expecting a worse scenario than last month, but as of the 11th month, only a slight degradation with the folio, now showing a decline of x8.6% to date. ( 0.3% worse than last month report ending).

Dividends for November were on course for contributing the lowest month all year, but SCS came in with their stonking final divi on the 26th of November which was closer to a 5% than 4% yield payment for a single interim payment alone (for holders of SCS) which meant the running dividend total period now stands @ £3.3k+ effectively a 3.3% boost to the results.

The NAPS 2018 is down x 8.6% on capital investment alone, but when dividends to-date are added in, the overall result for the folio reduces to approx x5.2% down (similar to the last month's reporting when divis included).


------------------------------
First table shows increases/decreases:

Up on last month with now 8 shares showing a % gain now (3 up on last month).
thus leaving 12 showing a red decrease since Jan 2nd start this year (ergo: an improvement on last month)

PLUS goes crackers, crushing it's top place last month even further, by a massive rise up to an incredible 70% gain.
(Another 19 like that please ED :)

And just like last month INDV languishes in bottom spot with an even worse performance now showing x75% decrease.


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Second table shows the Stock Ranks in comparison to starting out on Jan 2nd this year -

STOCK RANKS:
13 shares show a Stock Rank above SR90, compared to the year start - which had 18 commencing in the S/R 90's.
* 5 shares have increased their rating compared to the start of the year
* And 15 continue to show reduced Stock Rank ratings since the year start.

Highest S/R is 99 (4 of them)
Lowest SR is 39 (VOD, which represents a 51 point S/Ranking drop from its start point on Jan 2nd).

VLE shows the largest single improvement in S/R ratings by increasing 14 points from it's Jan 2nd starting point.

Klaus,

Ed reports on the portfolio performance six-monthly, but Velo in the previous post to yours was referring to a monthly tracker that he produces. (Both use different methods of 'keeping score' - both for valid reasons imho.)

A well thought out Method, with simplicity and brilliance in abundance.
Do you publish monthly results of your Portfolio?

December 2nd, the penultimate update, for the NAPS 2018 folio should be posted by tomorrow (before the end of Monday evening at the very latest) for results achieved by close of trading on Friday 30th November.

As per usual, now find myself travelling back long distance at each month's week-end; hence slight delay in posting the data.

Hi Velo,
Thanks for explaining the dividends are pooled together. That is why I was questioning the return.
There is also a 25% tax reclaim on the dividends that comes into the picture as well. The first part where 75% of the dividend is paid & then a bit of a waiting game and the exchange rate comes into play as does their bank charges too! So in fact you do not get the full 25% back.in refund..
If it is easy for you to show each share dividend separately, that would be good.

Another chunky dividend to come from Plus 500 this month which should be about 100p or so depending on the exchange rate at the time
.November will be my best month for dividends this year and estimated end of year should be about 70% up on last year.
I am questioning the figure of Plus 500 being 49% up to 2nd November since 2nd Jan the price was 881.5p and they have paid out one dividend this year already.which is extra money to the total return.

Hi Nick,

"...And the stock with the lowest original SR (VLE 83) has the second highest gain (actually I think it is 47% not the 27% as shown in Velo's table.).... "

No, it's as shown Nick ( 27% )
Think you might have inadvertently strayed on to the incorrect line when calculating.

For your purposes, if you take the mid price close as shown yesterday when you posted Friday 9th Nov of 1100p and use Yahoo Finance historical prices or any other plaform you prefer and bring up Jan2 2018 - the closing price on that day was 857.50p

So on end of day mid prices that's 28% not 47%.

For the NAPS I added broker's fees, stamp duty where appropriate, and the margin for the buy price and not the mid price, Additionally I also attempted to stagger/ guesstimate the buys throughout the day as end of day prices in real life would be impossible due to the market being closed, hence above it shows 27% real-life increase which was correct on 2nd November, but now a week later at close on Friday 9th, it's moved on and is now in fact down to 21.5%

Hope that explanation helps.

Regards.

It's a fascinating result. Starting with the highest Stockrank stocks in each sector, after ten months so far the performance seen has a huge range from -50% to +50%. And the stock with the lowest original SR (VLE 83) has the second highest gain (actually I think it is 47% not the 27% as shown in Velo's table.)

But the really interesting thing is that this a fairly good result. Every metric I have looked at performs similarly. Even when you choose from the top decile, you still only get about a 60:40 success rate (at best) in terms of beating the market, and the market is currently at about -8% or so.

Anybody has a backtest not using just UK market but all the shares of this world following the NAPS system? I'm subscribed to all the world markets and would like to know if this can work also with shares all around the world and not just UK's one.
Thank you :)

TYPO!   AS AT NOV 2nd - NOT AS SHOWN AT OCT 2nd

Once again, apologies for the late posting of Nov 2nd results. Thought, there's only 3 more updates to go, I can manage that, but I'm pulled in all directions near month ends now, and travelling 150 miles away from home for a full week. Took print-off's of Friday's close, but only had time to finish it this past day. Don't think I'll be able to do this all next year - but only 2 more months to go - I can see it through to the full 12 months end.

Thought - great no one's posted a query, I can relax and post it by Wed evening - but got nailed by a private message, just as well, as I was already half way to letting it slide to Thursday.

 Right. Onwards:

 Results for NAPS 2018 up to Tuesday 2nd November -

October got caught in the worldwide correction (signs it's now abating) my own portfolios are improving no end. How have yours fared? All is mostly woe from most investors the past couple of weeks and the NAPS 2018 is no exception. On Friday it increased a full 1.1% up by close that day - but that is still an overall x8.3% fall, year to date.

Dividends:

October has proved to be another weak month for divi income but look at the total - it's now a running total of just over £3k in divi income in real world terms

- so instead of the NAPS 2018 being down x8.3% you could say, it is now just x5.2% down year to date.

 So, taking account of an horrendous late October that doesn't sound 'too' bad when including divi income also.

------------------------------

First table shows increases/decreases:

 Only 5 shares showing a gain now (one down on last month).

thus leaving 1 at 0.0% and like last month 14 of them, showing a red decrease since Jan 2nd start, this year.

 PLUS is now a 'normal' expected top placing remaining in top place with a 49% gain.

whilst INDV just like last month remains at the bottom with a x 50% decrease.

------------------------------

Second table shows the Stock Ranks in comparison to starting out on Jan 2nd this year -

STOCK RANKS:

Overall, 12 shares show a Stock Rank above SR90 compared to the year start

* Just 3 shares have increased their rating compared to the start of the year

* 2 retain the same S/R as they started out with,

* Which means 15 have reduced Stock Rank ratings since the year start.

 Highest S/R is 99 (3 of them)

Lowest SR is 54  (FORT)

Erratum:

"September has run on with its decrease, now increasing to lie at x 5.5% down since Jan 2nd 2018 representing a £5.5K capital loss on the initial investment."

Should have read x 4.5% down (£4.5k capital loss not £5.5k as reported).

The result with dividends included, remains the same at just 1.5% down.

Apologies to all.

Strange that Indivior (LON:INDV) has recouped its stockrank.

NAPS got a big kick upwards from Volvere (LON:VLE) (and SCS (LON:SCS) to a lesser extent) today which is quite amusing as it was quite a strong down day for most of us.

Sorry for the late delay in posting. Was far better with my old XP computer than this one. Couldn't get JPEGS to convert or anything.

Results for NAPS 2018 up to Tuesday 2nd October -

September has run on with its decrease, now increasing to lie at x 5.5% down since Jan 2nd 2018 representing a £5.5K capital loss on the initial investment.

Dividends; well the previous month had the biggest monthly contribution to date, so unsurprisingly this month's is no where near that, with September contributing only £186 to bring the cumulative dividends running total up to £2,853 but no where near enough to really dent the overall decrease, as now including the dividends, the overall loss comes in at x 1.5% down. (Only fractions of a % last month).


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First table shows the number of shares showing a gain, is same as last month with 6 shares showing a gain,
thus leaving the rest, 14 of them, showing a red decrease since Jan 2nd start, this year.

PLUS as ever remains top dog but now only sporting a 51% gain.
whilst INDV is in the bottom spot with a worsening position, showing of x 54% decrease.

------------------------------
Second table shows the Stock Ranks in comparison to starting out on Jan 2nd this year -

STOCK RANKS:
Overall, 13 show a Stock Rank above SR90
* 4 shares increased their rating compared to the start of the year,
* 2 retain the same S/R as they started out with,
* Which means 14 have reduced Stock Rank ratings.

Highest S/R is 99 (3 of them)
Lowest SR is 58 (STCK)

Hi Dfs12,
- Was going to leave a post this afternoon advising that I will be late posting this month's NAPS update, but you've beaten me to it :)

Once again, I'm 150 miles away from my desk and travelling back on Wednesday so looking to post the update this Thursday.
Taking screenshots etc after tonight's close so making it 2nd of the month prompt & locked-in data, and ties in nicely with the start of the year's 2nd January which was also a Tuesday - so a nice, straight 9 months for a three-quarter year, snapshot.

Yes, I have kept up to date with the recent posts; and as you might imagine, currently, the month is looking to close a little more bearishly than last month's running total, so dividends will be more important than usual.

One can also use this graphic from the stockreport for a snapshop of volatility
I find this graphic a little more useful as it also gives an overview of price movement and spread 

The graphic annotates 

Volatility using Beta
Bid offer spread
And price change through 1 year, 6 months, 1 month and 1 week

It assists as a quick reference in finding shares coming back to support 

One could then always cross reference one against the other

More on Beta 

https://www.stockopedia.com/ra...

More on Risk ratings

https://help.stockopedia.com/p...

Okay, okay .....

I understand all that and I have some sympathy with the "bypass psychological biases" bit.

What I'm trying to say is perhaps best indicated by Indivior (LON:INDV) . I was actually looking for a pharma stock in the autumn of 2017 and for the first time - via SR (98 I think) - noticed it. Quickly looking at the StockReport I saw a price crash Sept 2017 and checking the news I saw it was a one drug company where others were trying to introduce generics and there were legal battles going on. Not for me. Very high risk. 5 minutes.

Phil

Since inception the performance of NAPS has been incredible. The recent underperformance of a few percent for a few months is absolutely nothing at all. If I ended a five year period of investing with that sort of record I'd be absolutely delighted (as I think most people would be). The benefits of using a factor based system is that you bypass psychological biases that may lead you to investments that are not the best. Leaving it to the numbers removes that risk. Interestingly, I also choose to use ranks as a start/middle but it's not something I'm proud of as I have underperformed the NAPS portfolio since its inception - so I would have been better off following the factors!

Indeed the NAPS is down -3.5% year to date, versus -1.65% for the FTSE All Share - a slight bit of underperformance. Though with a yield around 3% it's a fairly flat overall return.

After returning 29% annualised over 3 years (without dividends), there was always going to be a period of consolidation. You can't invest a strategy in equities with high upside potential without expecting downside volatility - especially in a concentrated 20 stock portfolio.

I've always said that I expect the NAPS portfolio to have a reversal of 30% or even 50% in a really bad bear market (e.g. 2008-9). This is to be expected.  Anyone investing in equities that isn't comfortable with this kind of downside volatility needs to do one of 2 things:

1. Manage downside risk (via stop losses or hedging)
2. Get out of equities and stick to bonds or cash

Frankly the market feeds on private investor fear.  So our tendency to switch strategies or get out at the slightest glimpse of volatility plays into smart investor's strategies.  There are dozens of psychological studies that show that people that look at their portfolio once per year outperform those who look at it every day.  There's a reason this strategy is called the NAPS... do it, take a nap, come back a year later and hope you win most of the loaded coin flips. 

Here are some timeframe charts vs the FTSE All Share for some sense checking.  ( Screenshots courtesy of our new app which is in Alpha testing. )

Year to Date

Since Inception (nearly 4 years):

The NAPS strategy for this year at least (the first year I've done it) is turning into a disaster such that I'm now under water: this morning has seen huge further falls (e.g. IGG) I don't know what circumstances have caused this but, as others have said, something turned in June and what gains were made have been eradicated such that the strategy certainly does not beat the market as a whole. Are the algorithms appropriate?

Am selling up and moving back to HYP. I have little doubt that this will cause the resumption of normal service.

Really helpful updates all, it will be fascinating to analyse the data at YE, hopefully we will have seen a marked improvement. Having just read Joel Greeblatts 'the little book that beats the market' and following Jim O'shaughnessy its clear with a systematic factor approach we should expect some potentially extreme under-performance some years but over the long term if you believe in the process and stick with it, the returns are statistically very good.

Great work thank you very much

Velo is right. NAPS is having a bad time at the moment. Usually the NAPS follows the AIM100 index reasonably well. For example, last year:

But this year something happened from the middle of June, and it also affected the SNAPS from the middle of August:

What was it? STCK VOD and INDV have under-performed all year and GFM has started to fall since June. Apart from VOD all of these have quite high volatility. So either NAPS2018 has more risky stocks than usual or perhaps it is just that more of its riskier stocks than usual have moved in the "wrong" direction. This isn't a complete explanation. Does AIM100 contain a different proportion of high volatility stocks compared with NAPS/SNAPS?  More importantly, was this just "bad luck" in the stocks NAPS chose or is there more that could be done? I don't know.

Note: In the table below the Volatility/Q/V/M/SR data is from January and the list is sorted by Volatility.

Thanks dfs12 -

Dividends - I love marking up my calendar with all the dividends coming in (3 months at a time, with reviews in that time-frame as some companies fling them out with minimal notice - others eons of notice). Lovely feeling - I call it my little part-time salary (dividends just on the edges of achieving five figures per year in total).  And it does feel like that, seeing the amounts ticked off on my calendar - a salary from a part-time job :)

Anyway, thing is, over the past 12 months I've had at least 3 occasions where none came into my brokers accounts, even though they were due, so waited days and waited some more, finally phone the brokers (two of them) then silence as someone checks and rather unconvincingly they say that company is late paying but it should be with you in the next few days. I explain they've never done this before, but they don't budge.

The result is always the same, within hours the next working day the errant dividend appears in my brokers accounts. It's like checking your change. Wonder how many just accept the dividend will be paid automatically and never bother to actually check up?

Well a disappointing close to the month of August with an increased retrace since last month and so the 2018 NAPS is now showing a fall to date of 3% representing a £3K loss on initial investment. Let's hope the best months lie ahead.

- However the most important take-away from this exercise is the sheer importance of ..... DIVIDENDS!

This month contributes the biggest in terms of divi payments for August alone of £693+ making the cumulative running total of £2,666 in dividends alone, and as near as possible saves the folio from disaster to a much more presentable loss of just a mere 0.4% loss. 

Dividends - under rated by many growth fans, I'm sure (I just won't select a share if it doesn't pay a divi, no way!) - but once again dividends beaver away in the background, and saves the bacon this month as well!

You could almost claim that it helps give adherence to following Warren Buffett's two jokey principle rules of investing:
Rule No:1) Don't lose money   &   Rule 2) Don't forget rule No:1
:)

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First table shows the number of shares showing a gain/decrease, is now down to just 6 shares showing a gain,
one at a neutral 0%,
thus leaving 13 showing a red decrease since Jan 2nd start, this year.

PLUS is top dog but with a reduced lead of a still nonetheless impressive 73% gain
whilst INDV gets worse, retaining the bottom spot with a worsening position, showing of -33% decrease.

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Second table shows the Stock Ranks in comparison to starting out on Jan 2nd this year -

STOCK RANKS:
* 4 shares currently sport an increased rating compared to the start of the year,
with 3 in the S/R90's,
& one in the S/R80's,
* 3 remain unchanged,
* Which means 13 have reduced Stock Rank ratings. (But that's an improvement on last month).

Down now to only 9 stocks still showing in the green 90's (How many 90's did Ed start out with?)
with over half a dozen in the 80's,
2 in the 70's
and Vodafone sporting a S/R of 60
and VTC down in the dumps at measly S/R55

All in all, a poorly performing month but pulled back from the brink by the valiant efforts of the divi producing shares.
ALL HAIL THE POWER OF DIVIDENDS! :)

Well, it's all done and dusted - just the infamous formatting to do - which I'll leave until tomorrow as up on other duties from 4:00am tomorrow.

But for defo, will have the latest NAPS performance up by tomorrow Sunday evening (early evening hopefully).

Nope DFS12 - add a couple of full percentage points decrease (but if you were mentally adding in the divis then you're in with a shot :)

Lets go for a -1.5%. Complete guess. Looking forward to your update and hope the gardening goes well.

It's the 2nd of the month on Sunday and time for the monthly update of the 2018 NAPS folio.

After progressing nicely since the last update, it has unfortunately, over this last week or so, been disasterous for the NAPS, if that's not too strong a word to use.

Currently the poorest performing NAPS on record since NAPS records began, but the year end is still a good way to go, in perhaps the best months yet to come? (ie., Sell in May and go away???)

Whatever, currently it's worse than last month's, by a slightly greater drop.

Got lawns to mow this weekend with bushes and trees to trim and brushland to decimate behind the garage but somewhere this weekend I should be able to update by Sunday latest.

In the meantime whether based on the general market performance or other means - try and guesstimate the % drop for the year to date as of this week's close :)

NAPS has had a hard time since about mid-June. Here it is compared with a few indices. (NB: the AIMONLY and FSMALLCAPS are not very accurate - I only track a subset of those categories.)

The top performer is AIM100, which in fact has been the top performer for quite a few years now. AIM alone can be quite a risky set to invest in, but the AIM100 (Market Caps about £170M-£4B) has been a very successful hunting ground.

Are you seeing anything (tables?)

.

Sad to report that much of the year's progress has been lost and dissipated away by the end of July (month 7) to this week ending, 3rd August 2018.

It limps in, at a big reduction to the last report at a measly gain of just 2.3%
Time to stop saying well at least it's beating FTSE - All Quant funds are taking a big hit this year - it's the worst year for Quant funds since - well see for yourself in this report in the FT last week - https://www.ft.com/content/e33...
(It's a funny pay site so paste into Google "Quant Hedge Funds Lose Their Allure" instead, if that link blocks you).
It reports that Quantitive Hedge Funds halved this year to their most sluggish pace since 2009!

Nothing much Ed can do about it. It's a much larger issue.

Anyway, dividends are now cumulatively running at £1,972.46 and come riding in to the rescue somewhat, bringing the full % gain up to just under 4.3% gain - a bit better, eh?

Only 7 shares are now showing gains this month, with 12 showing decreases and one bang on 0%

PLUS leads with 112% gain whilst INDV brings up the rear at -26% down.

STOCK RANKS:
* 4 shares currently sport an increased rating compared to Jan 2nd start,
* 1 remains unchanged
* Which means 15 have reduced Stock Rank ratings.

12 stocks are still with a nice green 90's or 100 SR rating ie., One sports a 100 Stock rank rating but there are now 5 'greys' ranging from S/R 76 down to S/R 61

Top 5 best performing shares are made up of 1 S/R 100,  3 in S/R 90's and a 5th at S/R 87
All Bottom 5 positions for poorest performance contain 2 in the S/R 90's and 3 all in the S/R 60's

Performance tables below:

% Increase/Decrease performance

Stock Rank rating changes

Tsk! Duh! I can see they're not opening, sorry about that. It's gone midnight - so I'll sort the tables tomorrow and re-post.

Running well behind schedule - haven't even started on it yet!

Don't want to waste people's time unnecessarily - so it'll be very late tonight or tomorrow when posted.

Sheesh, look at the time - gone midnight.

2nd of the month, so will try and get the monthly NAPS 2018 update posted by tomorrow. Was going to post on the full week closing on Friday, but the portfolio has blown all it's gains to smithereens, so thought well it's supposed to be the 2nd of the month so might improve by Thursday - but it's even worse now!
Only just remembered to prnt off the state of affairs just now, before it changed again tomorrow.

If you anybody sees this on Friday, please post if you prefer the Naps update to end on a full week, then this month would be run to the 3rd of August, and I'd post the results tomorrow evening.

as a caveat - my own NAPS portfolio is very slightly difference to Ed's list.

I think that is harsh: most of us measure things over either the calendar year or the tax year, and the fact that NAPS beat over 99% of funds during the former is enough. It won't always work, but surely the underlying premise of stockopedia is not that something works all the time, but that the information and the way it is presented allows us to make informed choices that, over time, will lead to outperformance.

I think this NAPS idea contains a huge element of luck. OK, in buying NAPS you weight probabilities in your favour (which is perhaps the best you can do) but the timing of your NAPS purchases is random and varies from month to month. What was a NAP in January may not be so in February.

I now have three NAP portfolios running. Needless to say, the fantasy one I set up in August 2017 is doing best, up 20%. The first real one I bought in September 2017 - with many of the same shares - is up 10%. It had too many losers and a couple of winners (e.g. GFM) so I rebased it last Friday and started afresh. Friday was a general "up" day so I bought at the worst time. I'm now down 2% but that's noise.

However, shouting that you're up 47% on the year, as though it were a general principle, is a mistake: that was good luck, not good management.

Two trading days is two trading days; days that could be improving the dire performance of this portfolio since January.

Ed, when are you going to update the NAPS portfolio? My understanding was that it was supposed to be a six monthly review cycle?

Will hold from posting the "supporting act's" half year updates until Ed has time to update on the big one, later in the coming week, or whenever Ed has time, and post some time after (also many thanks to Ed for tidying up my tables early in June).

Incidentally, I have the full 6 months actual dividends, not estimates or approximations, but the real-deal that was actually paid out for the holdings in each share and it makes a considerable difference to the % gain performance for 6 months. Considerable!  :)

As Ed said, the portfolio bloomed a few weeks back by the mid month point, near doubling of the % gain, then in the last fortnight or so, reverted to the year long lack-lustre % gain by the month's end

- but the dividends add near 50% to that overall % gain, because the cumulative, overall % gain finished back in low single digits. If you want to mentally add the dividends to Ed's figures then the actual full 6 months dividends is £1,521.96 (technically adding + 1.5% gain to Ed's figures; but then you'd really have to deduct the original portfolio buying costs too).

Looking forward to seeing what Ed is going to come up with when he does his update end of June. I have a portfolio calculated already but I am finding that you still have to make some judgements and cannot rely on a totally mechanical picking process. So Eds input (and experience) will be invaluable to me and I am sure many others.

Griffin Mining (LON:GFM) is one of the NAPS and, as the top of the stockranking charts, probably a popular share among investors here. The share price is down 8% as I write, was down over 10% earlier, and is down 15% on the highs of a month ago. The reason for this? Appalling corporate governance.
Despite generating large sums of free cash and paying off all debt, Griffin Mining (LON:GFM) has failed to give any indication of what it plans to do with these assets.  I know a large number of shareholders have written to Griffin and Roger Goodwin, the Finance Director, has replied politely, saying that the views would be taken into consideration.  But then, nothing.  It is a quite extraordinary scenario.  It makes me wonder whether, as well as the identity of the NOMAD/house broker, the quality of the board and corporate governance is something that should be considered as well as simply the stock rank.

Whether this can be done quantatively is open to question: perhaps percentage of company owned by directors, length of tenure, whether AGMs are easily accessible.  In the case of GFM, the AGM is in Bermuda and there is no opportunity for UK based investors to meet the board.  As a result, the feelings of shareholders are ignored and the SP is currently low.  It is perhaps a warning that just because something is high value on stockranks does not mean that value will ever be recognised.  Very frustrating that a company can fire on all cylinders yet have a low share price because of board intransigence.

Hi,
The NAPS method of stock picking is the most interesting process I have yet found - and so far the most successful - although this year so far has been a little disappointing.tho still beating the FTSE,
Foes Ed have any thoughts about an interim half year selection - i have had to cash in some of my portfolio so it is a bit out of balance anyway - so I think I will do a complete re-balance.

Hi Ed, I set up an automatic Naps picker based on your rules outlined above, could you tell me if it is the same as your screen for today please.

I actually come up with a few different versions, today the highest have a 95.5 avg stockrating

Here is a plot NAPS2018 compared against the whole UK market. The median for the market is in yellow, and the mean (equivalent to an equal weighted index) is in magenta. The performance of NAPS2018 is shown in blue. The plot uses a log scale, so constant growth looks like a straight line. The deviation of the median line from a straight line is the undiversifiable "market risk".

It is interesting that the NAPS never (rarely) falls below the magenta line. So even worst case it is matching the market. (By the way, the gap between the mean and median performance is an emergent property caused by taking an arithmetic mean of a distribution which is approximately log-normal (or any distribution which is symmetric but geometric). The way that you "capture" this bonus is to regularly rebalance the portfolio.)

Just to get a feel for how much better NAPS is performing, here is the same plot but with the deciles (10% to 90% percentiles) added in red.

At present the performance matches the 70% percentile which is pretty good. (Connoisseurs of statistics will note that the decile envelopes have the characteristic "sqrt" look predicted by theory.)

Just for completeness here is the NAPS2017 performance compared against deciles using the same scale.

Last year the NAPS ended the year roughly comparable with the 80% percentile. Something that really surprises me is how much the NAPS portfolio moves between the percentiles. I expected it to settle somewhere maybe between 60-70 and coast along but that clearly does not happen. Even more interesting is that it seems to break for the upside when it moves!

With just £200 your costs would be extremely high.Just to deal at say £12 and then the spread, say 1%, that is another £2, totaling £14 ( 7%).
The average UK dividend is about 3%.
With £2,000 costs are much smaller as a %age.£12 dealing and spread £20 totaling £32 on £2,000 = 1.6%.
Both the dealing cost and the spread can be improved upon reducing costs still further. So if this can average out at 1% say then your total portfolio will be about 2% better off with the dividends paid.
That gives a total return on your portfolio which includes the dividends which can be re invested.,clears your costs and begins the magic of compound interest.
Nearly all these Naps pay a dividend, but there is no guarantee they will continue to do so.

NAPS 2018 by Stock Rank as at JUNE 2nd.

[Blue (in bold) = up on Jan 2nd.     Red = down.     Black = no change]

After 5 months the NAPS 2018 folio is now well and truly out of the gate and showing a 5.5% gain overall. (I expect next month Ed may do a half year review?)

 Caveat: As per usual, Ed's results will differ (for the better) from mine as Ed's are from the year end (mid price I think) where as mine are culled from the first day available to purchase on Jan 2nd , using that day's end closing price inclusive of the buying spread premium, plus stamp duty, plus broker's fee. (P.S. Quite a variance on a few odd shares, between the 29th December close and the 2nd Jan close).

 First thing to notice is that 10 shares are now showing gains this month, so 50/50 for the portfolio as regards workers v laggards.  And that's been steadily increasing for the better all year to date.

STOCK RANKS:

* Only 3 shares currently sport an increased rating compared to Jan 2nd start,

* 3 remain unchanged

* Which means the rest (all 14 of them; have reduced Stock Rank ratings).

% INCREASES/DECREASES:

* Of the top five  % increase positions, 3 are in the 90's Stock Rankings

* with one at 100

* and the other at 89.

Top performer to date is yet again, as it has been all year (Newton's law of What's in motion, stays in motion?) - Plus500 showing a 78% gain.

All Bottom five  %-decrease positions for poorest performance are as follows:

* One is at 69 Stock ranking

* two in the 70's

* one in the 80's

* and the other is in the 90's.

- Holding the wooden spoon in bottom position, is not one, but two shares sharing the spot at -17% decrease with Vodafone fractionally, shading the worst performer from LSL by the merest of a whisker.

Top performing % increase share =   S/Rank is in at 98 ( Plus 500 )

Worst performing decreasing share = S/Rank is in at 77 ( Vodafone )

At the half year period next month it might be beneficial to add a pro-rata dividend amount to the folio total clearly showing it as an additional extra (Hope I remember to do so :)

The 2nd of the month - so monthly update due :)

If I don't manage to get the June 2nd results up by tonight sometime, I should be free to manage so by Sunday evening.

After a miserable first quarter, it kicked off last month and it's continued motoring along nicely now.
Up 5.5% overall by Friday close - after being over 6%+ up earlier in the week.

Fascinated and appreciative of the method and the commentary. As a new subscriber, and a bit of a math and stat player, I am about to start tracking NAPS and adding two mods: 1. Adding 10% stop loss, and 2. Ploughing stop loss cash back into the remaining 2018 NAPS top performers. We’ll see!

One trick you can use if all else fails is to save your EXCEL table as an HTML file. Then open it with Notepad (or similar simple editor) and grab just the table itself (between <table> and </table>).

Then in Stocko, put the comment into the "text editor" mode (options at top right)  and click on the "<>" button which puts the text box into HTML mode. Drop the table in from the simple editor and click on "<>" again to get back into the normal text editor.

Bit late (formattring taking for ever. Excel won't format on here, nor Word tables, nore JPegs ....grrrr, but here is the NAPS 2018 by Stock Rank as at May 2nd.
.

NAME       Stock Rank    Stock Rank     Stock Rank      Stock Rank      Stock Rank
                     2/1/18           2/2/18                2/3/18              2/4/18              2/5/18

SCS                 100                  99                       100                   99                     99
TW.                   99                  98                         97                    95                     96
BMY                 99                   98                         98                  100                     99
GFM                 99                   99                         98                    99                   100
MGNS              99                   91                         93                    91                      94
STHR                99                   96                         96                    91                      90
LSL                   99                   98                         98                    86                       92
OCN                98                    97                         95                    99                       98
PLUS               98                    96                         99                    99                       98
SND                 98                   98                         96                    97                       96
TATE                98                   96                         91                    85                       84
STCK               97                    95                         95                    80                       76
VTC                 95                    94                         91                     91                       91
BP.                  95                    94                         77                     92                       96
INDV               95                    88                        93                     93                        96
FORT              94                    94                         93                    95                         95
RPC                93                    88                         88                    77                         78
VOD               90                    92                         86                    83                          80
JEL                  85                    85                        84                    80                           82
VLE                83                    77                         78                    77                          75

-------------------------------
Now gains and decreases:

The 2018 NAPS finally moves into positive territory this month with a 2% gain overall. Apart from the stockranks above I'm a bit concerned that I have only 8 stocks showing as a gain, whilst Ed has 12 and the overall gain difference. Might recalculate the starting prices on Jan 2nd.


NAME     % Increase      % Decrease

PLUS          70%
GFM           30%
INDV          12%
SND           10%
VLE            10%
BP.               5%
FORT           5%
VTC              3%
STCK                                     -3%
JEL                                         -3%
SCS                                        -5%
RPC                                       -8%
BMY                                      -9%
TW.                                       -9%
MGNS                                -10%
VOD                                   -10%
OCN                                   -10%
LSL                                     -11%
TATE                                   -14%
STHR                                   -15%

I have the NAPS up 4.4% year to date. Plus500 is up 64% and Griffin Mining up 36% as top performers. 12 winners, 8 losers. Worst performer being Tate & Lyle - down 17%. I'll update fully at the end of June.

I for one am very interested in how it’s doing & i’m sure i’m not the only one...........

Just in case there's the odd soul out there tonight wondering how the 2018 NAPS is progressing now the calendar has clicked over into May - I'm letting it run to May 2nd as all the reporting dates in previous posts have all fallen on the 2nd of each month - and I hope to post the update tomorrow evening (Wed) or during the day on Thursday; whatever if busy, I'll screen shot everything at close of May 2nd and post when free.

GOOD NEWS is that the NAPS actually hits pay dirt this month - it's best perfomance all year

- for the first time it's now clearly in profit. (Previously a loss every single month until right now in the past seven days). It's "getting there" The NAPS theory for that rocky start to 2018 is starting to sprout wings :)

PS. Haven't given a thought to add dividends to the results                                                                                 - will work on that as a sepertate add-on to the figures I post.

.

I have always used the end of year prices for performance tracking purposes. On that basis the portfolio is down 4.67% year to date (using the last price) vs the FTSE 100 down 7.3%. This does not include transaction fees, nor spread costs.  The process is run before the year end, but the article published after the New Year.  

I've always been categorical that the NAPS isn't a 'tip' list - it's the definition of a process - so I track the performance at the time the deal sheet is created, rather than the first opportunity a reader would have had to trade it (as that's never been the goal).  As many pointed out, if you actually ran the process on the 2nd January you'd have had a different list.

I'm not sure if Ed intends to do a quarterly update, I hope so as I have been looking at a parallel project that 'circumstances' haven't allowed me the time to write up, so I decided a while ago that'll wait on Ed's next report and then earmark some time to write up the project together with the 'to date' results.

Meanwhile, just further to Velo's summary of a 7%* fall for NAPS, I note that over the same period the FTSE All share appears to be down 7.76%.

The comparative is probably slightly better as Velo uses "unflattering purchase points intraday on the first day on Jan 2nd" (not totally sure what that means) and include dealing costs of c. 0.25% whereas the FTAS figure I quote has no dealing costs.

So on this limited evidence this might suggest that NAPS only offers limited protection in a market downturn. Nevertheless an approach that can handsomely outperform the market on the way up and at least match it on the way down is still imho a valuable tool to have in the locker.

At the end of the first quarter the NAPS is down overall by 7% now showing £93k from a £100K starting point. I tracked the NAPS with initially HL's brokerage fees of £11.99 per transaction and unflattering purchase points intraday on the first day on Jan 2nd - so my figures may look a little more fiercely down than Ed's.

Here's how they lie:

One less than last month in the gains enclosure with the top 5 looking like this:

PLUS 500  28% gain (S/R 99)

VOLVERE 11% gain  (S/R 77)

VTC         5% gain   (S/R 91)

GFM         2% gain   (S/R 99)

INDV       0.2% gain (S/R 91)

And at the very bottom worst performer is  -

 TATE  22% Loss (S/R85)

PS. I find the formatting on these boards next to impossible when trying to copy/paste spreadsheet tables. General word posts okay, copying spreadsheets over - as you can see, nightmare - spaced out, unecessarily.

April 2nd on Easter Monday and the first quarter of the 2018 Naps is now in and completed. As the markets closed on Thursday (before the Easter Holiday of the market commenced) and the holiday extends to April 2nd, I've used that date as it ties in nicely with the actual commencement date of the month the 2018 NAPS initiated from, back on Jan 2nd.

For the first 2 months I listed the S/Rankings for each share as they were written up in Ed's initial blog above. But the description of each company was neither alphabetical nor Stock Rank listed in order - so slight change this month - I've listed Ed's NAPS selections in stock rank order from the highest descending, as they were on Jan 2nd - then it's much easier to see over the months how each individual share increases/decreases its S/Rank rating.

In a couple of instances where I've been stalking a share or two expecting a pull back to a pre-determined point for personal buying, where a share SP has retraced - so has the Stock rank rating.

For instance, STHR was S/R 99 on Jan 2nd and now it's down to S/R 91 - in line with the SP decrease from circa 373p (inc costs) on Jan 2nd, down to circa 323p by close, currently.

In fact, I don't even list up the stock ranks movements for my own portfolios, but after doing this exercise, think I will add that job to my list of monthly actions, as currently I'm a bit ad hoc in monitoring my shares individual S/Rankings, and tend only to look when 'I get into trouble' :)

Here are the latest Stock Rank ratings for the first quarter of 2018 ending on April 2nd:

Bold = those shares that have increased their S/Rankings.

Italics = (one share only) = no change.

All the rest are down from their Jan 2nd initial S/Rankings.

- At the start back in January, there were only 2 shares selected that were below S/R90 but now there are 7 shares below S/R90. (Both the initial selections below SR/R90 were contained within the 8o's but now of the 7 below 90 there are two of them that have descended into the 70's).

(Will post the NAPS list of SP increases/decreases shortly).

Great work to all that have contributed here, It’s jest a thought that really this should be viewed against an overall market comparison if the market was up 10% over the same time frame that’s not a great start to the year , if however the market has fallen by 10% it’s not as bad as first it would seem.
Maybe a comparison could be added to provide perspective.
Thanks for this thread iv found it most useful.

Thanks Velo. I am sure that you or Ed will update us at the end of what is bound to be a rocky month.

I'm sure many of us are tracking the NAPS in a folio. It might be a good idea for Stocko to create a Fantasy Fund to track the NAPS as it does for the Guru screens.

I am hoping to update more fully if I get time... but the 2018 NAPS is down 5.2% since the start of the year - less than the indices at the moment. Last year's NAPS (if not rebalanced on Jan 1st) are down around 12% since the start of the year. This kind of stresses the point of rebalancing - it helps manage risk & lowers volatility.

More speculative stocks like IQE which had grown to such a big portion of the portfolio in 2017 are now rebalanced out, and the weightings realigned - so big reversals in positions such as this have a much lower impact. Some call this 'volatility pumping'.

It's the speculative and highly speculative stocks that are taking the biggest beatings in the market at the moment. They all got over-extended last year. The greater weighting to lower volatility Conservative & Balanced Risk Ratings in the 2018 NAPS should offer a little more downside protection.

"Hostage to fortune" time, but here goes...

I tend to believe that a Value Rank above 75 hints at underlying problems for the stock in question, and a Value Rank in the range 25-75 is preferable.

So before too much more of the 2018 year goes by, here is a table of NAPS 2018 stocks sorted by Value Rank. My hypothesis is that the first eleven stocks (with Value Rank <= 75) will outperform the 20-stock portfolio.

The metrics above are based on the earliest date in 2018 that the stock report has a print page for. Usually this is 6-Jan but occasionally it is later.

Something I had not realised before is that although the Quality Rank is fairly stable, the Value Rank jumps about quite a lot as the price moves. So it is possible that the exact set with Value Rank <= 75 might change depending on the exact date used, because there are quite a lot of stocks hovering around the 75 mark.

As an aside I would probably tend to choose stocks with Q>50 too, but in this case the only stock with Q<50 is also eliminated by V>75.

My (non-UK) tax year is the calendar year. I spend a fair amount of time each December computing whatever capital gains I want to realise, then harvesting capital losses to offset as much of the CGT liability as I can. The point is that this distorts the rebalancing procedures described above, and shares get sold that might not otherwise get sold in the absence of CGT. Gus makes a good point that you can sell personally-owned shares and buy them back simultaneously in a tax wrapper such as ISA (unless anti-bed and breakfasting rules in your country prevent this).

CGT damps the effect of both profits and losses. In a recent episode I noticed a (unmarketable private equity) share I owned in a company that was in difficulty would be worth more to me if the company went bust, due to the tax loss, than if it survived and limped along with my equity value less than the potential tax loss. This extreme example illustrates how important this tax factor is in investment decision making processes.

pka
Once you have used up your annual CGT allowance, it has no effect at all at the margin. Zero. So it is not a matter of apportioning the allowance across your disposals.
In the case of tax-advantaged accounts like ISA/SIPP usually there is a limit to how much capital you can have in such accounts. So my observations apply to the marginal trade in excess of tax-advantaged situations.

Tax effects: Regarding comments above on rebalancing and other steps that result in disposal of a share, I have been considering the impact of capital gains tax (CGT) on my activities, and the extent to which this should deter or defer rebalancing etc decisions. This does not seem to be much of a consideration for others in the above discussion. However it can readily be shown that if you have a share with an unrealised capital gain, and you sell this share and reinvest the net proceeds, until some later date, then if the percent return on the new share is the same as it would have been if you had kept the old share, you will end up with less after-tax proceeds upon eventual disposal of the new share. In other words, if you sell the first share and invest the net proceeds in a new share for a certain period, you need a higher rate of return from the new share up to its disposal at the end of that period, in order to achieve the same net outcome as if you had kept the first share for that same period. Perhaps it is intuitively obvious that crystallising a CGT liability reduces the capital base upon which you can earn returns.
A little algebra shows that the difference D between (i) holding an investment comprising original capital C plus unrealised gain P over t periods at periodic return r percent then selling and paying CGT at T percent and (ii) selling the investment for C+P and reinvesting the net proceeds at the same rate of return for t periods at the end of which the new investment is sold and CGT paid at T percent, is:
D = TP*(1-T)*[((1+r)^t)-1]
This assumes for simplicity that the rate of return on the new investment is the same as on the original one. There is a much longer formula if the rates of return are different, or to calculate the difference in rates of return that will result in D = 0.
The bottom line here is a perhaps intuitively obvious observation: rebalancing involves a tax cost, and too-frequent optimising of your portfolio will reduce your ultimate after-tax returns.

Hi

Can I ask a ranking question. A stock can be the highest of it's industry group on the overall Stockranks, but then when you go into the individual industry group list, it isn't the highest, there can be the odd one or two above it.

Why?

EDIT: SOLVED - but possibly a feature improvement needs to be made for clarity.

Bug found?

Setting up the screen as follows:

All UK Exchanges
Market Cap (£) >= 25
Spread <= 500
Risk Rating excludes Highly Speculative
StockRank in Market > 90

=107 Qualifying
Top StockRank (100) = Globaltrans Investment (LON:GLTR)

However, remove the last rule and you get

=200 Qualifying
Top StockRank (98) = Persimmon (LON:PSN)

GLTR is not on the list at all. I caught this trying to find a Utility to complete the diversification. In Screen 2 you get 6 of them, highest is SSE (LON:SSE) (78). However, use Screen 1 with an SR cutoff of 80 and you get a completely different one, Jersey Electricity (LON:JEL) (85)!  If you click "see screen as a checklist" at the bottom and search for GLTR, it says it should be on the list.

Am I missing something?  It must have something to do with the "in Market" category in the SR rule.  I don't quite understand how SR works with regards to this and "in Sector", "in Industry", vs not using the rule at all.

Furthermore, no Small Caps appear if you have a StockRank in Market > 90.  Is that to be expected?

I've invested in European countries for close to 5 years now.

There are many solid countries in Europe to invest in, e.g. France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands. I've also occasionally dipped my toe in Spain and Italy.

I've avoided Greece, Turkey, and more eastern european countries due to combination of broker practicalities (i.e. can I actually buy them?) and concerns (rightly or wrongly) over the governance of companies in that region.

The european stockranks include the UK, so a stock from france scoring a stockrank of 97 is being compared to the UK stock universe too.

Re; currency concerns ... by trading in just UK stocks aren't you exposed to the weakness/strength of the £.
At least by trading in companies using multiple currencies you hedging exposure to one currency.

Interestingly when I switched approach in 2013 to a screen based high QM strategy there were few UK candidates appearing on my screens which drove me into Europe and the US. Of late more UK stocks are appearing in my screens.

Best of luck
Phil

Gromley

The European Stockranks are ranked across Europe as a whole, this includes for example Turkey. By way of illustration of my point, there are some Turkish companies with high Stockranks. Now, should I overlay a cautious attitude to Turkish accounting and corporate governance standards so as to subjectively filter out such companies for no good reason other than my own prejudice? This is a slippery slope towards stockpicking based on subjective judgements, the very opposite of the facility Stockopedia provides.

By the way I am just using Turkey as an example, no offence to any Turkish investors here. Maybe there are some great investment opportunities in Turkish markets. There are high-Stockrank companies from other eastern countries such as Romania too.

As my base currency is euros, I too would be very keen to hear about a Euro-Naps selection.

Concerns about the currency risks influence me to limit my exposure to UK shares.

However screening via the Stockranks of European (non-GBP) shares leads immediately to confronting one's biasses about Eastern European shares or shares from specific countries (say Turkey, for example). Many such companies with impressive financial statistics at first sight turn out, after digging into corporate documents, to be indirectly state-controlled or have other offputting features. But if for example I screen out all companies from country X, I am introducing a personal prejudice which is the opposite of objective factor-based investing.

Comments welcome.

Decided to set up the 2018 NAPS in their own portfolio (plus a watchlist elsewhere, that also stores the 'startimg price' and compares to the current price) so I can compare inbetween Ed's updates on progress. I'll be more interested in how the stockank ratings for each stock and the progress of the SP, perform in relation to each other, than how much the portfolio makes, or doesn't make, over all.

Used £5k per stock as a default amount so just ever so slightly over £100k the lot. (£100,037)

Used the date in Ed's NAPS post above as the buyng date so trawled back to use prices from 2nd January for the lot. Already from then to Friday's close 19th Jan, there are 6 shares showing gains but 14 showing retraces.

Quite a few dropping 1 point in ther stockranks with one dropping 3 points. Think only one, showed a 1 point increase in S/Ranks. Overall the portfolio is showing a tiny fractionally increae of just over a quarter of a percent with 6 stocks making a gain - all the rest retracing.

One share is well out of kilter to the others by showing a 20% increase already! (Pluss500).

And without that four figure increase the portfolio would most probably have been down fractionally as a portfolio total, as the gain currenty is hovering inbetween £200 and £300 gain.

So the 6 gainers have, as a team, outperformed the 14 retracers to show a net fractionally small gain. The worst retracer being down over -6%

But trying to monitor the progress of the Stockranks ratings. (ie., is it best to buy whilst a stock has room to grow say 90, or does a 99 stockrank leave only one direction left to travel?) I intend to monitor that aspect more closely.

As far as I am concerned Ed has published more than enough data for me to be able to judge the value of his method. I have benefitted greatly from following his work.

And, including the forthcoming price increase, it costs me just 61p per day! Incredible value!